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National and Sub-National Hiv/Aids-Related Mortality in Iran, 1990–2015: A Population-Based Modeling Study Publisher Pubmed



Moazen B1, 2, 3 ; Deckert A2 ; Saeedi Moghaddam S1 ; Owusu PN2 ; Mehdipour P1, 4 ; Shokoohi M5, 6 ; Noori A1, 7 ; Lotfizadeh M8, 9 ; Bosworth R10 ; Neuhann F2 ; Farzadfar F1, 11 ; Stover H3 ; Dolan K10
Authors
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Authors Affiliations
  1. 1. Non-Communicable Diseases Research Center, Endocrinology and Metabolism Population Sciences Institute, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
  2. 2. Heidelberg Institute of Global Health, Heidelberg University, Heidelberg, Germany
  3. 3. Department of Health and Social Work, Institute of Addiction Research (ISFF), Frankfurt University of Applied Sciences, Frankfurt/Main, Germany
  4. 4. Centre for Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Melbourne School of Population and Global Health, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Australia
  5. 5. HIV/STI Surveillance Research Center, WHO Collaborating Center for HIV Surveillance, Institute for Futures Studies in Health, Kerman University of Medical Sciences, Kerman, Iran
  6. 6. Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Schulich School of Medicine Dentistry, The University of Western Ontario, London, Canada
  7. 7. Department of Health Research Methods, Evidence, and Impact, McMaster University, Hamilton, Canada
  8. 8. Social Determinants of Health Research Center, Shahrekord University of Medical Sciences, Shahrekord, Iran
  9. 9. Department of Community Health, Shahrekord University of Medical Sciences, Shahrekord, Iran
  10. 10. Program of International Research and Training, National Drug and Alcohol Research Centre, University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia
  11. 11. Endocrinology and Metabolism Research Center, Endocrinology and Metabolism Clinical Sciences Institute, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran

Source: International Journal of STD and AIDS Published:2019


Abstract

Surveillance of HIV/AIDS mortality is crucial to evaluate a country’s response to the disease. With a modified estimation approach, this study aimed to provide more accurate estimates on deaths due to HIV/AIDS in Iran from 1990 to 2015 at national and sub-national levels. Using a comprehensive data set, death registration incompleteness and misclassification were addressed by demographical and statistical methods. Trends of mortality due to HIV/AIDS at national and sub-national levels were estimated by applying a set of models. A total of 474 men (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 175–1332) and 256 women (95% UI: 36–1871) died due to HIV/AIDS in 2015 in Iran. Peaked in 1995, HIV/AIDS-related mortality has steadily declined among both genders. Mortality rates were remarkably higher among men than women during the period studied. At the sub-national level, the highest and the lowest annual percent change were found at 10.97 and −1.36% for women, and 4.04 and −3.47% for men, respectively. The findings of our study (731 deaths) were remarkably lower than the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV and AIDS (4000) but higher than Global Burden of Disease (339) estimates in 2015. The overall decrease in mortality due to HIV/AIDS may be attributed to the increasing burden of noncommunicable diseases; however, the role of the national and international organizations to fight HIV/AIDS should not be overlooked. To decrease HIV/AIDS mortality and to achieve international goals, evidence-based action is required. To fast-track targets, the priority must be to prevent infection, promote early diagnosis, provide access to treatment, and to ensure treatment adherence among patients. © The Author(s) 2019.
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