Predicting the Establishment of Invasive Dengue Fever Vectors and Spread of the Dengue Virus in Southern Iran Using Climatic Parameters Publisher



Nasirian H ; Ahmadi SAY ; Abadi ARS
Source: Theoretical and Applied Climatology Published:2026

Abstract

Dengue fever, a vector-borne disease, is endemic in Pakistan and poses a transmission risk to neighboring Iran, particularly in southern regions. This study aims to predict the establishment of invasive dengue vectors in southern Iran using climatic data. Analysis of precipitation, temperature, and dew point temperature (DPT) from 1983 to 2022 revealed significant changes, especially in rainfall intensity. The study identified key temperature and precipitation points using a generalized additive model, indicating a stable trend. Field observations and literature reviews support the potential establishment of dengue vectors in southern Iran. Logistic regression analysis showed a seasonal variation in dengue fever incidence associated with climatic factors. Predictive analysis indicated a higher likelihood of dengue occurrence with increased temperature, precipitation, and DPT levels. Aedes aegypti, the dengue vector, has been consistently detected in southern Iran, particularly in urban areas like Bandar Abbas. Despite limited confirmed cases, the presence of a competent vector, favorable climate, and high international traffic pose a significant epidemiological threat. Dengue vectors have been reported in various provinces in Iran, with cases diagnosed in 2024 and local transmission in Chabahar in 2025. Biological evidence and epidemiological conditions suggest the establishment of dengue fever and its vectors in southern Iran, particularly in Hormozgan Province. The study predicts outbreaks based on climate patterns and vector behavior, emphasizing the need for preventive measures and surveillance by health authorities. Further research is required to explore the link between climate change, dengue epidemics, and the establishment of invasive dengue vectors in Iran. © The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer-Verlag GmbH Austria, part of Springer Nature 2026.