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Body Mass Index and Subsequent Fracture Risk: A Meta-Analysis to Update Frax Publisher Pubmed



Harvey NC ; Johansson H ; Mccloskey EV ; Liu E ; Akesson KE ; Anderson FA ; Azagraledesma R ; Bager CL ; Beaudart C ; Bischoffferrari HA ; Biver E ; Bruyere O ; Cauley JA ; Center JR Show All Authors
Authors
  1. Harvey NC
  2. Johansson H
  3. Mccloskey EV
  4. Liu E
  5. Akesson KE
  6. Anderson FA
  7. Azagraledesma R
  8. Bager CL
  9. Beaudart C
  10. Bischoffferrari HA
  11. Biver E
  12. Bruyere O
  13. Cauley JA
  14. Center JR
  15. Chapurlat R
  16. Christiansen C
  17. Cooper C
  18. Crandall CJ
  19. Cummings SR
  20. Da Silva JAP
  21. Dawsonhughes B
  22. Diezperez A
  23. Dufour AB
  24. Eisman JA
  25. Elders PJM
  26. Ferrari S
  27. Fujita Y
  28. Fujiwara S
  29. Gluer CC
  30. Goldshtein I
  31. Goltzman D
  32. Gudnason V
  33. Hall J
  34. Hans D
  35. Hoff M
  36. Hollick RJ
  37. Huisman M
  38. Iki M
  39. Ishshalom S
  40. Jones G
  41. Karlsson MK
  42. Khosla S
  43. Kiel DP
  44. Koh WP
  45. Koromani F
  46. Kotowicz MA
  47. Kroger H
  48. Kwok T
  49. Lamy O
  50. Langhammer A
  51. Larijani B
  52. Lippuner K
  53. Mcguigan FEA
  54. Mellstrom D
  55. Merlijn T
  56. Nguyen TV
  57. Nordstrom A
  58. Nordstrom P
  59. Oneill TW
  60. Obermayerpietsch B
  61. Ohlsson C
  62. Orwoll ES
  63. Pasco JA
  64. Rivadeneira F
  65. Schei B
  66. Schott AM
  67. Shiroma EJ
  68. Siggeirsdottir K
  69. Simonsick EM
  70. Sornayrendu E
  71. Sund R
  72. Swart KMA
  73. Szulc P
  74. Tamaki J
  75. Torgerson DJ
  76. Van Schoor NM
  77. Van Staa TP
  78. Vila J
  79. Wareham NJ
  80. Wright NC
  81. Yoshimura N
  82. Zillikens MC
  83. Zwartsalmeron M
  84. Vandenput L
  85. Lorentzon M
  86. Leslie WD
  87. Kanis JA

Source: Journal of Bone and Mineral Research Published:2025


Abstract

The aim of this international meta-analysis was to quantify the predictive value of BMI for incident fracture and relationship of this risk with age, sex, follow-up time, and BMD. A total of 1667922 men and women from 32 countries (63 cohorts), followed for a total of 16.0 million person-years were studied. 293325 had FN BMD measured (2.2 million person-years follow-up). An extended Poisson model in each cohort was used to investigate relationships between WHO-defined BMI categories (Underweight: <18.5 kg/m2; Normal: 18.5-24.9 kg/m2; Overweight: 25.0-29.9 kg/m2; Obese I: 30.0-34.9 kg/m2; Obese II: ≥35.0 kg/m2) and risk of incident osteoporotic, major osteoporotic and hip fracture (HF). Inverse-variance weighted β-coefficients were used to merge the cohort-specific results. For the subset with BMD available, in models adjusted for age and follow-up time, the hazard ratio (95% CI) for HF comparing underweight with normal weight was 2.35 (2.10-2.60) in women and for men was 2.45 (1.90-3.17). Hip fracture risk was lower in overweight and obese categories compared to normal weight [obese II vs normal: women 0.66 (0.55-0.80); men 0.91 (0.66-1.26)]. Further adjustment for FN BMD T-score attenuated the increased risk associated with underweight [underweight vs normal: women 1.69 (1.47-1.96); men 1.46 (1.00-2.13)]. In these models, the protective effects of overweight and obesity were attenuated, and in both sexes, the direction of association reversed to higher fracture risk in Obese II category [Obese II vs Normal: women 1.24 (0.97-1.58); men 1.70 (1.06-2.75)]. Results were similar for other fracture outcomes. Underweight is a risk factor for fracture in both men and women regardless of adjustment for BMD. However, while overweight/obesity appeared protective in base models, they became risk factors after additional adjustment for FN BMD, particularly in the Obese II category. This effect in the highest BMI categories was of greater magnitude in men than women. These results will inform the second iteration of FRAX®. © 2025 Elsevier B.V., All rights reserved.