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The Impact of Future World Events on Iranians’ Social Health; a Qualitative Futurology



Damari B1 ; Hajian M2 ; Minaee F3 ; Riaziisfahani S1
Authors
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Authors Affiliations
  1. 1. Dept. of Social Determinants of Health, National Institute of Health Research, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
  2. 2. Health Policy Secretariat, Ministry of Health and Medical Education, Tehran, Iran
  3. 3. Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran

Source: Iranian Journal of Public Health Published:2016

Abstract

Background: Social health is a dimension of health affected and interacts with other dimensions. Considering the rate of world changes, foresighting the influence of future events and possible trends on social health could bring about advantageous information for social policy makers. Methods: This is a qualitative study of futurology with cross impact analysis approach. After studying possible trends and events in future, they were categorized in four domains including population, resources, climate changes, and globalization and 12 groups of events; and they were used to design a questionnaire. It was given to experts and their opinions were collected through depth interviews between May 2013 and Sep 2013. Results: Analysis of experts’ opinions reveals that future trends in four main potential domains may have some positive and more negative impacts on Iranians’ social health. Conclusion: The global “resource challenge” is the most important incoming event, considering to the four domains of global events and its final and potential effects will be the increase of inequalities leading to social threat. Since inequalities are considered the most important risk factor of health in the societies, the solution for dispel the impact of world trends on Iranians’ social health is managing the crisis of inequalities which is started with fore sighting and adopting preventive strategies in all four domains. © 2016, Iranian Journal of Public Health. All rights reservsd.