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Artificial Intelligence Methods to Estimate Overall Mortality and Non-Relapse Mortality Following Allogeneic Hct in the Modern Era: An Ebmt-Tcwp Study Publisher Pubmed



Mussetti A1 ; Riussansalvador B2, 3 ; Moreno V2, 3 ; Peczynski C4 ; Polge E5 ; Galimard JE6 ; Kroger N7 ; Blaise D8 ; Peffault De Latour R9, 10 ; Kulagin A11 ; Mousavi A12 ; Stelljes M13 ; Hamladji RM14 ; Middeke JM15 Show All Authors
Authors
  1. Mussetti A1
  2. Riussansalvador B2, 3
  3. Moreno V2, 3
  4. Peczynski C4
  5. Polge E5
  6. Galimard JE6
  7. Kroger N7
  8. Blaise D8
  9. Peffault De Latour R9, 10
  10. Kulagin A11
  11. Mousavi A12
  12. Stelljes M13
  13. Hamladji RM14
  14. Middeke JM15
  15. Salmenniemi U16
  16. Sengeloev H17
  17. Forcade E18
  18. Platzbecker U19
  19. Remenyi P20
  20. Angelucci E21
  21. Chevallier P22
  22. Yakoubagha I23
  23. Craddock C24
  24. Ciceri F25
  25. Schroeder T26
  26. Aljurf M27
  27. Ch K28
  28. Moiseev I29
  29. Penack O30
  30. Schoemans H31, 32
  31. Mohty M33
  32. Glass B34
  33. Sureda A1
  34. Basak G35
  35. Peric Z36

Source: Bone Marrow Transplantation Published:2024


Abstract

Allogeneic haematopoietic cell transplantation (alloHCT) has curative potential counterbalanced by its toxicity. Prognostic scores fail to include current era patients and alternative donors. We examined adult patients from the EBMT registry who underwent alloHCT between 2010 and 2019 for oncohaematological disease. Our primary objective was to develop a new prognostic score for overall mortality (OM), with a secondary objective of predicting non-relapse mortality (NRM) using the OM score. AI techniques were employed. The model for OM was trained, optimized, and validated using 70%, 15%, and 15% of the data set, respectively. The top models, “gradient boosting” for OM (AUC = 0.64) and “elasticnet” for NRM (AUC = 0.62), were selected. The analysis included 33,927 patients. In the final prognostic model, patients with the lowest score had a 2-year OM and NRM of 18 and 13%, respectively, while those with the highest score had a 2-year OM and NRM of 82 and 93%, respectively. The results were consistent in the subset of the haploidentical cohort (n = 4386). Our score effectively stratifies the risk of OM and NRM in the current era but do not significantly improve mortality prediction. Future prognostic scores can benefit from identifying biological or dynamic markers post alloHCT. © The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited 2023.
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