Forecasting Health Expenditures in Iran 2030 Publisher



Hedayati M ; Fazaeli A A
Source: Discover public health Published:2026

Abstract

Background: Forecasting health expenditures is essential for sustainable health financing and achieving Universal Health Coverage (UHC) by 2030. This study analyzes historical trends in Iran’s health expenditures from 2001 to 2022 and projects future values up to 2030 using ARIMA models. Methods: Data were obtained from official National Health Accounts. Separate ARIMA models were fitted to log-transformed series for Total Health Expenditure (THE), Current Health Expenditure (CHE), public health expenditure, private health expenditure, and Out-of-Pocket (OOP) payments. Models were selected based on the lowest Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), validated using 2019–2022 out-of-sample data, and refitted on the full dataset for forecasting. Results: The best-performing models showed acceptable out-of-sample accuracy (MAPE ranging from 12.5% to 16.1%) given Iran’s high macroeconomic volatility. Under a baseline “no major policy change” scenario, THE is projected to reach 111.1 trillion IRR by 2030. The public financing share is expected to rise to approximately 57%, while the OOP share is forecasted to decline to 28%. Conclusions: Although nominal health expenditures are projected to grow rapidly, the financing structure is expected to shift gradually toward greater public financing and reduced OOP dependence. However, achieving Iran’s national UHC targets will require additional policy reforms to improve efficiency and financial protection. Regular updates of these projections are recommended as new data become available. © The Author(s) 2026.