Mapping Current and Future Risk of Scorpion Sting From a Species With Low Medical Concern, Mesobuthus Phillipsii (Scorpiones: Buthidae) in Iran Publisher Pubmed



Kafash A¹ ; Hanafibojd AA^{1, 2} ; Bavani MM³ ; Shahi M⁴ ; Akbari M⁵ ; Rafinejad J² ; Omid FB² ; Hassanpour G⁶ Show Affiliations
Source: Journal of Medical Entomology Published:2023

Abstract

Scorpion stings are one of the most important health challenges and high priority research topic in public health. In this study, we aimed to model habitat suitability of the Mesobuthus phillipsii (Pocock 1889), a species with low medical concern, under current and future climatic conditions in Iran. We also identified vulnerable populations to scorpion stings in the country. Scorpion sting risk modeling was done using an ensemble approach by considering two species distribution modeling methods: MaxEnt and Random Forest methods. Distribution modeling was performed using the sdm R package.The results showed that due to climate change in 2070, the high-risk areas will increase from 20,839 to 79,212 km2. Habitats with a moderate risk of scorpion stings will also increase from 139,347 to 222,833 km2. Consequently, the number of villages in high-risk areas of scorpion stings will increase from 2,870 to 7,017, while this number will increase from 12,759 to 20,104 in the case of medium-risk villages.The results of this study can be used for scorpion stings management in Iran.This study can be used as an example for similar studies on scorpions with high medical emergency. © The Author(s) 2023. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Entomological Society of America. All rights reserved.