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Interrupted Time Series Analysis of the Impact of Covid-19 on Emergency and Elective Surgeries in Iranian Hospitals; [Evaluation De L'impact De La Covid-19 Sur Les Interventions Chirurgicales D'urgence Et Programmees Dans Les Hopitaux Iraniens a L'aide De L'analyse Des Series Chronologiques Interrompues] Publisher Pubmed



Beiranvand S1 ; Behzadifar M2 ; Imaninasab MH2 ; Azari S3 ; Teli BD4 ; Ehsanzadeh SJ5 ; Martini M6 ; Shahabi S7 ; Behzadifar M2
Authors

Source: Eastern Mediterranean Health Journal Published:2025


Abstract

Background: Emergency and elective surgeries are vital for saving lives and enhancing patient wellbeing. However, COVID-19 pandemic disrupted the provision of surgical services in Iranian hospitals and globally. Aim: To investigate the impact of COVID-19 pandemic on emergency and elective surgical care in Iranian hospitals. Methods: Using an interrupted time series analysis, we evaluated the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on emergency and elective surgeries in western Islamic Republic of Iran between January 2017 and December 2023, using February 2020 as the intervention point. We analysed the data with R software Version 4.3.2 and used a segmented regression model to analyse the pre-and post-COVID-19 trends, ensuring the reliability of results by using Durbin-Watson statistic and autocorrection techniques. P < 0.05 was considered statistically significant. Results: Pre-pandemic, the mean monthly number of emergency surgeries was 258.9. Due to the pandemic there was a significant decrease by 359.6; however, we observed a gradual recovery in surgical activity with an average increase of 15.8 surgeries above the pre-pandemic levels. The mean monthly number of elective surgeries before the pandemic was 199.5. After the onset of the pandemic, we found a significant decrease of 85.37, although there was a gradual recovery over time. Conclusion: The COVID-19 pandemic significantly impacted surgical services in Iranian hospitals, causing a reallocation of resources to COVID-19 care and postponement of non-urgent surgeries. There is a need for strategic planning and policy interventions to ensure continuity of surgical care during health emergencies. © Authors 2025.
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