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First-Year Treatment Response Predicts the Following 5-Year Disease Course in Patients With Relapsing-Remitting Multiple Sclerosis Publisher Pubmed

Summary: Early treatment response in MS predicts 5-year outcomes; poor response raises relapse and disability risk, study shows. #MultipleSclerosis #Neurology

Toscano S1, 2 ; Spelman T3, 4 ; Ozakbas S5 ; Alroughani R6 ; Chisari CG2, 7 ; Lo Fermo S2, 7 ; Prat A8 ; Girard M8 ; Duquette P8 ; Izquierdo G9 ; Eichau S9 ; Grammond P10 ; Boz C11 ; Kalincik T12, 13 Show All Authors
Authors
  1. Toscano S1, 2
  2. Spelman T3, 4
  3. Ozakbas S5
  4. Alroughani R6
  5. Chisari CG2, 7
  6. Lo Fermo S2, 7
  7. Prat A8
  8. Girard M8
  9. Duquette P8
  10. Izquierdo G9
  11. Eichau S9
  12. Grammond P10
  13. Boz C11
  14. Kalincik T12, 13
  15. Blanco Y14
  16. Buzzard K15
  17. Skibina O15
  18. Sa MJ16, 17
  19. Van Der Walt A18
  20. Butzkueven H18
  21. Terzi M19
  22. Gerlach O20, 21
  23. Grandmaison F22
  24. Foschi M23, 24
  25. Surcinelli A23
  26. Barnett M25
  27. Lugaresi A26, 27
  28. Onofrj M28
  29. Yamout B29
  30. Khoury SJ29
  31. Prevost J30
  32. Lechnerscott J31
  33. Maimone D32
  34. Amato MP33, 34
  35. Spitaleri D35
  36. Van Pesch V36
  37. Macdonell R37
  38. Cartechini E38
  39. De Gans K39
  40. Slee M40
  41. Castillotrivino T41
  42. Soysal A42
  43. Sanchezmenoyo JL43
  44. Laureys G44
  45. Van Hijfte L44
  46. Mccombe P45
  47. Altintas A46
  48. Weinstockguttman B47
  49. Agueramorales E48
  50. Etemadifar M49
  51. Ramotello C50
  52. John N51, 52
  53. Turkoglu R53
  54. Hodgkinson S54
  55. Besora S55
  56. Van Wijmeersch B56, 57
  57. Fernandezbolanos R58
  58. Patti F2, 7

Source: Neurotherapeutics Published:2025


Abstract

Predicting long-term prognosis and choosing the appropriate therapeutic approach in patients with Multiple Sclerosis (MS) at the time of diagnosis is crucial in view of a personalized medicine. We investigated the impact of early therapeutic response on the 5-year prognosis of patients with relapsing-remitting MS (RRMS). We recruited patients from MSBase Registry covering the period between 1996 and 2022. All patients were diagnosed with RRMS and actively followed-up for at least 5 years to explore the following outcomes: clinical relapses, confirmed disability worsening (CDW) and improvement (CDI), EDSS 3.0, EDSS 6.0, conversion to secondary progressive MS (SPMS), new MRI lesions, Progression Independent of Relapse Activity (PIRA). Predictors included demographic, clinical and radiological data, and sub-optimal response (SR) within the first year of treatment. Female sex (HR 1.27; 95 ​% CI 1.16–1.40) and EDSS at baseline (HR 1.19; 95 ​% CI 1.15–1.24) were independent risk factors for the occurrence of relapses during the first 5 years after diagnosis, while high-efficacy treatment (HR 0.78; 95 ​% CI 0.67–0.91) and age at diagnosis (HR 0.83; 95 ​% CI 0.79–0.86) significantly reduced the risk. SR predicted clinical relapses (HR ​= ​3.84; 95 ​% CI 3.51–4.19), CDW (HR ​= ​1.74; 95 ​% CI 1.56–1.93), EDSS 3.0 (HR ​= ​3.01; 95 ​% CI 2.58–3.51), EDSS 6.0 (HR ​= ​1.77; 95 ​% CI 1.43–2.20) and new brain (HR ​= ​2.33; 95 ​% CI 2.04–2.66) and spinal (HR 1.65; 95 ​% CI 1.29–2.09) MRI lesions. This study highlights the importance of selecting the appropriate DMT for each patient soon after MS diagnosis, also providing clinicians with a practical tool able to calculate personalized risk estimates for different outcomes. © 2025 The Authors
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