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Longitudinal Machine Learning Modeling of Ms Patient Trajectories Improves Predictions of Disability Progression Publisher Pubmed



De Brouwer E1 ; Becker T2 ; Moreau Y1 ; Havrdova EK4 ; Trojano M5 ; Eichau S6 ; Ozakbas S7 ; Onofrj M8 ; Grammond P9 ; Kuhle J10 ; Kappos L10 ; Sola P11 ; Cartechini E12 ; Lechnerscott J13 Show All Authors
Authors
  1. De Brouwer E1
  2. Becker T2
  3. Moreau Y1
  4. Havrdova EK4
  5. Trojano M5
  6. Eichau S6
  7. Ozakbas S7
  8. Onofrj M8
  9. Grammond P9
  10. Kuhle J10
  11. Kappos L10
  12. Sola P11
  13. Cartechini E12
  14. Lechnerscott J13
  15. Alroughani R14
  16. Gerlach O15
  17. Kalincik T16, 17
  18. Granella F18
  19. Grandmaison F19
  20. Bergamaschi R20
  21. Jose Sa M21
  22. Van Wijmeersch B22
  23. Soysal A23
  24. Sanchezmenoyo JL24
  25. Solaro C25
  26. Boz C26
  27. Iuliano G27
  28. Buzzard K28
  29. Agueramorales E29
  30. Terzi M30
  31. Trivio TC31
  32. Spitaleri D32
  33. Van Pesch V33
  34. Shaygannejad V34
  35. Moore F35
  36. Orejaguevara C36
  37. Maimone D37
  38. Gouider R38
  39. Csepany T39
  40. Ramotello C40
  41. Peeters L2, 3
Show Affiliations
Authors Affiliations
  1. 1. ESAT-STADIUS, KU Leuven, Leuven, 3001, Belgium
  2. 2. I-Biostat, Data Science Institute, Hasselt University, Diepenbeek, Belgium
  3. 3. Department of Immunology, Biomedical Research Institute, Hasselt University, Diepenbeek, 3590, Belgium
  4. 4. Charles University in Prague, General University Hospital, Prague, Czech Republic
  5. 5. Department of Basic Medical Sciences, Neuroscience and Sense Organs, University of Bari, Bari, Italy
  6. 6. Hospital Universitario Virgen Macarena, Sevilla, Spain
  7. 7. Dokuz Eylul University, Konak/Izmir, Turkey
  8. 8. University G. d'Annunzio, Chieti, Italy
  9. 9. CISSS, Chaudire-Appalache, Levis, Canada
  10. 10. Neurologic Clinic and Policlinic, MS Center and Research Center for Clinical Neuroimmunology and Neuroscience Basel (RC2NB), University Hospital Basel, University of Basel, Basel, Switzerland
  11. 11. Azienda Ospedaliera Universitaria, Modena, Italy
  12. 12. Azienda Sanitaria Unica Regionale Marche - AV3, Macerata, Italy
  13. 13. University Newcastle, Newcastle, Australia
  14. 14. Amiri Hospital, Sharq, Kuwait
  15. 15. Zuyderland Ziekenhuis, Sittard, Netherlands
  16. 16. Melbourne MS Centre, Department of Neurology, Royal Melbourne Hospital, Melbourne, Australia
  17. 17. CORe, Department of Medicine, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Australia
  18. 18. University of Parma, Parma, Italy
  19. 19. Neuro Rive-Sud, Quebec, Canada
  20. 20. IRCCS Mondino Foundation, Pavia, Italy
  21. 21. Department of Neurology, Centro Hospitalar Universitario de So Joo and University Fernando Pessoa, Porto, Portugal
  22. 22. Rehabilitation and MS-Centre Overpelt, Hasselt University, Hasselt, Belgium
  23. 23. Bakirkoy Education and Research Hospital for Psychiatric and Neurological Diseases, Istanbul, Turkey
  24. 24. Hospital de Galdakao-Usansolo, Galdakao, Spain
  25. 25. Dept of Rehabilitation mons L Novarese Hospital, Moncrivello, Italy
  26. 26. KTU Medical Faculty Farabi Hospital, Trabzon, Turkey
  27. 27. previously at Ospedali Riuniti di Salerno, Salerno, Italy
  28. 28. Box Hill Hospital, Melbourne, Australia
  29. 29. University Hospital Reina Sofia, Cordoba, Spain
  30. 30. 19 Mayis University, Samsun, Turkey
  31. 31. Hospital Universitario Donostia, San Sebastain, Spain
  32. 32. Azienda Ospedaliera di Rilievo Nazionale San Giuseppe Moscati Avellino, Avellino, Italy
  33. 33. Cliniques Universitaires Saint-Luc, Brussels, Belgium
  34. 34. Isfahan Neurosciences Research Center, Isfahan University of Medical Sciences, Isfahan, Iran
  35. 35. Jewish General Hospital, Montreal, Canada
  36. 36. Hospital Clinico San Carlos, Madrid, Spain
  37. 37. Garibaldi Hospital, Catania, Italy
  38. 38. Razi Hospital, Manouba, Tunisia
  39. 39. University of Debrecen, Debrecen, Hungary
  40. 40. Hospital Germans Trias i Pujol, Badalona, Spain

Source: Computer Methods and Programs in Biomedicine Published:2021


Abstract

Background and Objectives: Research in Multiple Sclerosis (MS) has recently focused on extracting knowledge from real-world clinical data sources. This type of data is more abundant than data produced during clinical trials and potentially more informative about real-world clinical practice. However, this comes at the cost of less curated and controlled data sets. In this work we aim to predict disability progression by optimally extracting information from longitudinal patient data in the real-world setting, with a special focus on the sporadic sampling problem. Methods: We use machine learning methods suited for patient trajectories modeling, such as recurrent neural networks and tensor factorization. A subset of 6682 patients from the MSBase registry is used. Results: We can predict disability progression of patients in a two-year horizon with an ROC-AUC of 0.85, which represents a 32% decrease in the ranking pair error (1-AUC) compared to reference methods using static clinical features. Conclusions: Compared to the models available in the literature, this work uses the most complete patient history for MS disease progression prediction and represents a step forward towards AI-assisted precision medicine in MS. © 2021
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