A Climate-Sensitive Decision-Support Framework for Prioritizing Human Heat Stress Indices: Integrating Fuzzy Delphi, Fahp, and Thermal Perception in Abadan, Isfahan, and Gorgan, Iran Publisher

Summary: Is one urban heat index right for every city? A three-city study found climate mattered, favoring locally chosen physiological measures for heat planning. #UrbanClimate #HeatStress

Mousavi S M ; Dehghan H ; Yazdanirad S
Source: Environmental and Sustainability Indicators Published:2026

Abstract

Selecting suitable human heat stress indices for urban areas is essential but non-trivial due to their climate-specific nature. This study developed a climate-sensitive framework for selecting human heat stress indices by integrating the Fuzzy Delphi method, Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process (FAHP), sensitivity analysis, and field-based thermal perception data. Twenty human heat stress indices were initially assessed in three Iranian cities with distinct climatic conditions (Abadan: hot-humid; Isfahan: hot-dry; Gorgan: temperate-humid) during April–September 2025. After Fuzzy Delphi screening, ten indices were prioritized using FAHP. Physiological relevance emerged as the most important evaluation criterion (normalized weight = 0.370). Strong agreement was observed between the FAHP-derived rankings and the rankings based on thermal sensation votes (TSVs) collected from 300 participants (0.79 ≤ ρ ≤ 0.82 ). The results revealed that the suitability of a heat stress index strongly depends on the regional climate: WBGT performed best in Abadan (hot-humid), UTCI in Isfahan (hot-dry), and PET in Gorgan (temperate-humid). Sensitivity analysis confirmed the stability of the prioritization rankings (0.88 ≤ ρ ≤ 0.97). Physiological indices generally ranked higher than empirical ones. The study concludes that no universally applicable heat stress index exists for urban areas. The proposed framework provides a transferable decision-support tool that can assist researchers and practitioners in different countries in selecting appropriate heat stress indices and designing climate adaptation strategies. © 2026 The Authors.