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Beyond the Richter Scale: A Fuzzy Inference System Approach for Measuring Objective Earthquake Risk Publisher



Mohammadi S1 ; Balouei F1 ; Amini S2 ; Rabieidastjerdi H3, 4
Authors
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Authors Affiliations
  1. 1. Department of Remote Sensing and GIS, Faculty of Earth Sciences, Shahid Chamran University of Ahvaz, Fateme, Ahvaz, Iran
  2. 2. Department of Geomatics Engineering, Faculty of Civil Engineering, University of Isfahan, Isfahan, Iran
  3. 3. School of Architecture, Planning, and Environmental Policy & CeADAR (Ireland’s National Centre for Applied Data Analytics & AI), University College Dublin (UCD), Dublin, Ireland
  4. 4. Social Determinants of Health Research Center, Isfahan University of Medical Sciences, Isfahan, Iran

Source: Natural Hazards Published:2025


Abstract

Earthquakes pose significant natural hazards and impact populations worldwide. Iran is among the most susceptible countries to seismic activity, making comprehensive earthquake risk assessment crucial. This study employs geospatial methods, including integrating satellite, ground-based, and auxiliary data to model earthquake risk across this country. A Fuzzy Inference System (FIS) is used to generate earthquake hazard probability and vulnerability layers, considering factors such as slope, elevation, fault density, building density, proximity to main roads, proximity to buildings, population density, and earthquake epicenter, magnitude, proximity to the epicenter, depth density, peak ground acceleration (PGA). The results highlight high-risk areas in the Alborz and Zagros Mountain ranges and coastal regions. Moreover, the findings indicate that 39.7% (approximately 31.7 million people) of Iran’s population resides in high-risk zones, with 9.6% (approximately 7.7 million) located in coastal areas vulnerable to earthquakes. These findings offer valuable insights for crisis management and urban planning initiatives. © The Author(s) 2024.