1,000,000 Cases of Covid-19 Outside of China: The Date Predicted by a Simple Heuristic

1,000,000 Cases of Covid-19 Outside of China: The Date Predicted by a Simple Heuristic Publisher

Koczkodaj WW¹ ; Mansournia MA² ; Pedrycz W³ ; Wolnydominiak A⁴ ; Zabrodskii PF⁵ ; Strzalka D⁶ ; Armstrong T¹ ; Zolfaghari AH¹ ; Debski M⁷ ; Mazurek J⁸

Show Affiliations

1. Computer Science, Laurentian University, Sudbury, P3E 2C6, ON, Canada
2. Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
3. Department of Electrical & Computer Engineering, Alberta University, Edmonton, AB, Canada
4. University of Economics in Katowice, 1 Maja 47, Katowice, 40-287, Poland
5. Saratov Medical University, Reaviz, Saratov, Russian Federation
6. Rzeszow University of Technology, Powstancow Warszawy 12, Rzeszow, 35-959, Poland
7. Department of Sociology, University of Gdansk, Bazynskiego 8, Gdansk, 80-309, Poland
8. Silesian University in Opava, Opava, Czech Republic

Source: Global Epidemiology Published:2020

Abstract

We forecast 1,000,000 COVID-19 cases outside of China by March 31st, 2020 based on a heuristic and WHO situation reports. We do not model the COVID-19 pandemic; we model only the number of cases. The proposed heuristic is based on a simple observation that the plot of the given data is well approximated by an exponential curve. The exponential curve is used for forecasting the growth of new cases. It has been tested for the last situation report of the last day. Its accuracy has been 1.29% for the last day added and predicted by the 57 previous WHO situation reports (the date 18 March 2020). Prediction, forecast, pandemic, COVID-19, coronavirus, exponential growth curve parameter, heuristic, epidemiology, extrapolation, abductive reasoning, WHO situation report. © 2020

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Style	Citing Format
MLA	Koczkodaj WW, et al.. "1,000,000 Cases of Covid-19 Outside of China: The Date Predicted by a Simple Heuristic." Global Epidemiology, vol. 2, no. , 2020, pp. -.
APA	Koczkodaj WW, Mansournia MA, Pedrycz W, Wolnydominiak A, Zabrodskii PF, Strzalka D, Armstrong T, Zolfaghari AH, Debski M, Mazurek J (2020). 1,000,000 Cases of Covid-19 Outside of China: The Date Predicted by a Simple Heuristic. Global Epidemiology, 2(), -.
Chicago	Koczkodaj WW, Mansournia MA, Pedrycz W, Wolnydominiak A, Zabrodskii PF, Strzalka D, Armstrong T, Zolfaghari AH, Debski M, Mazurek J. "1,000,000 Cases of Covid-19 Outside of China: The Date Predicted by a Simple Heuristic." Global Epidemiology 2, no. (2020): -.
Harvard	Koczkodaj WW et al. (2020) '1,000,000 Cases of Covid-19 Outside of China: The Date Predicted by a Simple Heuristic', Global Epidemiology, 2(), pp. -.
Vancouver	Koczkodaj WW, Mansournia MA, Pedrycz W, Wolnydominiak A, Zabrodskii PF, Strzalka D, et al.. 1,000,000 Cases of Covid-19 Outside of China: The Date Predicted by a Simple Heuristic. Global Epidemiology. 2020;2():-.
BibTex	@article{ author = {Koczkodaj WW and Mansournia MA and Pedrycz W and Wolnydominiak A and Zabrodskii PF and Strzalka D and Armstrong T and Zolfaghari AH and Debski M and Mazurek J}, title = {1,000,000 Cases of Covid-19 Outside of China: The Date Predicted by a Simple Heuristic}, journal = {Global Epidemiology}, volume = {2}, number = {}, pages = {-}, year = {2020} }
RIS	TY - JOUR AU - Koczkodaj WW AU - Mansournia MA AU - Pedrycz W AU - Wolnydominiak A AU - Zabrodskii PF AU - Strzalka D AU - Armstrong T AU - Zolfaghari AH AU - Debski M AU - Mazurek J TI - 1,000,000 Cases of Covid-19 Outside of China: The Date Predicted by a Simple Heuristic JO - Global Epidemiology VL - 2 IS - SP - EP - PY - 2020 ER -

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