Mathematical Modeling the Epicenters of Coronavirus Disease-2019 (Covid-19) Pandemic Publisher



Jamshidi B² ; Rezaei M¹ ; Zargaran SJ³ ; Najafi F⁴
Source: Epidemiologic Methods Published:2020

Abstract

In epidemiology, the modeling of epicenters is important both conceptually and mathematically. This paper is an attempt to model epicenters mathematically. We present an algorithm to find new epicenters. Applying our model for the data related to COVID-19 pandemic, we obtain epicenters in China, South Korea, Iran, Italy, France, Germany, Spain, the USA, and Switzerland, on the days 1, 35, 42, 42, 49, 50, 50, 50, and 56, respectively. Although the number of these epicenters is less than 5% of all contaminated countries across the globe, as of March 22, 2020, they make up 74% of new cases and over 80% of total confirmed cases. Finally, we conclude that we expect to face three new epicenters between March 22 and April 1, 2020. © 2020 Walter de Gruyter GmbH. All rights reserved.