Estimating the Prevalen Developing Country Publisher



Rashidian H¹ ; Haghdoost AA² ; Daroudi R³ ; Raadabadi M³ ; Ebadzadeh MR⁴ ; Zendehdel K^{1, 5} Show Affiliations
Source: Medical Journal of the Islamic Republic of Iran Published:2022

Abstract

Background: Bladder cancer is among the 10 most common cancers globally and in Iran. The prevalence rate is a crucial metric for both estimating disease burden and policymakers. On the other hand, bladder cancer is heterogeneous disease with different stages,high recurrence, and progression rate. In planning treatment procedures, it is important to know the prevalence of bladder cancer by stages. In the current study, we aimed to estimate the 5-year prevalence of bladder cancer by stages using the Markov model.Methods: This was a simulation study. To estimate the 5-year prevale ce of bladder cancer by stages, we used the Markov model with a time horizon of 5 years following di gnosis. We simulated the natural history of bladder cancer using a literature review. We extracted survival rate, stage-specific recurrence, and progression rate usi g local and international publications and expert opinion. In addition, we used the Iranian life table and extracted probabilities of mortality due to oth r causes of death.Results: Five-year prevalence of bladder cancer for the year 2018 was estimated at 21,807 patients. Non-muscle-invasive bladder cancer accounted for around 68% of all cases, with 42% in the Ta low-grade stage. About 32% of bladder cancer prevalent cases were muscle-invasive bladder cancer patients, from which about 8% had metastatic tumors.Conclusion: Researchers and policymakers can utilize the findings of this study to conduct economic burden analyses and plan resource allocation. © 2022,Medical Journal of the Islamic Republic of Iran. All Rights Reserved.