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Progression of Bone Marrow Lesions and the Development of Knee Osteoarthritis: Osteoarthritis Initiative Data Publisher Pubmed



Moradi K1 ; Mohammadi S2 ; Roemer FW3, 4 ; Momtazmanesh S2 ; Hathaway Q5 ; Ibad HA1 ; Hunter DJ6, 7 ; Guermazi A3 ; Demehri S1
Authors
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Authors Affiliations
  1. 1. Russell H. Morgan Department of Radiology and Radiological Science, Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine, 601 N Caroline St JHOC 5165, Baltimore, 21287, MD, United States
  2. 2. Tehran University of Medical Sciences, School of Medicine, Tehran, Iran
  3. 3. Department of Radiology, Boston University, Chobanian & Avedisian School of Medicine, Boston, MA, United States
  4. 4. Department of Radiology, Universitatsklinikum Erlangen and Friedrich-Alexander-Universitat Erlangen-Nurnberg, Erlangen, Germany
  5. 5. West Virginia University, School of Medicine, Morgantown, WV, United States
  6. 6. Department of Rheumatology, University of Sydney, Camperdown, Australia
  7. 7. Royal North Shore Hospital, St. Leonards, Sydney, Australia

Source: Radiology Published:2024


Abstract

Background: Bone marrow lesions (BMLs) are a known risk factor for incident knee osteoarthritis (OA), and deep learning (DL) methods can assist in automated segmentation and risk prediction. Purpose: To develop and validate a DL model for quantifying tibiofemoral BML volume on MRI scans in knees without radiographic OA and to assess the association between longitudinal BML changes and incident knee OA. Materials and Methods: This retrospective study included knee MRI scans from the Osteoarthritis Initiative prospective cohort (February 2004-October 2015). The DL model, developed between August and October 2023, segmented the tibiofemoral joint into 10 subregions and measured BML volume in each subregion. Baseline and 4-year follow-up MRI scans were analyzed. Knees without OA at baseline were categorized into three groups based on 4-year BML volume changes: BML-free, BML regression, and BML progression. The risk of developing radiographic and symptomatic OA over 9 years was compared among these groups. Results: Included were 3869 non-OA knees in 2430 participants (mean age, 59.5 years ± 9.0 [SD]; female-to-male ratio, 1.3:1). At 4-year follow-up, 2216 knees remained BML-free, 1106 showed an increase in BML volume, and 547 showed a decrease in BML volume. BML progression was associated with a higher risk of developing radiographic knee OA compared with remaining BML-free (hazard ratio [HR] = 3.0; P < .001) or BML regression (HR = 2.0; P < .001). Knees with BML progression also had a higher risk of developing symptomatic OA compared with BML-free knees (HR = 1.3; P < .001). Larger volume changes in BML progression were associated with a higher risk of developing both radiographic OA (HR = 2.0; P < .001) and symptomatic OA (HR = 1.7; P < .001). In almost all subchondral plates, especially the medial femur and tibia, BML progression was associated with a higher risk of developing both radiographic and symptomatic OA compared with remaining BML-free. Conclusion: Knees with BML progression, according to subregion and extent of volume changes, were associated with an increased risk of OA compared with BML-free knees and knees with BML regression, highlighting the potential utility of monitoring BML volume changes in evaluating interventions to prevent OA development. © RSNA, 2024.