The Impact of Climatic Variables on the Population Dynamics of the Main Malaria Vector, Anopheles Stephensi Liston (Diptera: Culicidae), in Southern Iran Publisher



Abbasi M^{1, 2, 6} ; Rahimi Foroushani A³ ; Jafarikoshki T^{4, 5} ; Pakdad K^{1, 6} ; Vatandoost H^{1, 6} ; Hanafibojd A^{1, 6} Show Affiliations
Source: Asian Pacific Journal of Tropical Medicine Published:2020

Abstract

Objective: To determine the significance of temperature, rainfall and humidity in the seasonal abundance of Anopheles stephensi in southern Iran. Methods: Data on the monthly abundance of Anopheles stephensi larvae and adults were gathered from earlier studies conducted between 2002 and 2019 in malaria prone areas of southeastern Iran. Climatic data for the studied counties were obtained from climatology stations. Generalized estimating equations method was used for cluster correlation of data for each study site in different years. Results: A significant relationship was found between monthly density of adult and larvae of Anopheles stephensi and precipitation, max temperature and mean temperature, both with simple and multiple generalized estimating equations analysis (P<0.05). But when analysis was done with one month lag, only relationship between monthly density of adults and larvae of Anopheles stephensi and max temperature was significant (P<0.05). Conclusions: This study provides a basis for developing multivariate time series models, which can be used to develop improved appropriate epidemic prediction systems for these areas. Long-term entomological study in the studied sites by expert teams is recommended to compare the abundance of malaria vectors in the different areas and their association with climatic variables. Abbasi Madineh 1 Deparment of Medical Entomology & Vector Control, School of Public Health, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran; Infectious and Tropical Diseases Research Center,Tabriz University of Medical Sciences, Tabriz Rahimi Foroushani Abbas 2 Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran Jafari-Koshki Tohid 3 Molecular Medicine Research Center; Department of Statistics and Epidemiology, Faculty of Health, Tabriz University of Medical Sciences, Tabriz Pakdad Kamran 4 Department of Parasitology & Mycology, Paramedical School, Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences, Tehran Vatandoost Hassan 5 Deparment of Medical Entomology & Vector Control, School of Public Health, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran Hanafi-Bojd Ahmad 6 Deparment of Medical Entomology & Vector Control, School of Public Health, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran WHO. Malaria report 2019. Geneva: WHO; 2019. 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