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Measuring Routine Childhood Vaccination Coverage in 204 Countries and Territories, 1980–2019: A Systematic Analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2020, Release 1 Publisher Pubmed



Galles NC1 ; Updike RL1 ; Fullman N1 ; Nguyen J1 ; Rolfe S1 ; Sbarra AN1 ; Schipp MF1 ; Marks A1 ; Abady GG6 ; Abbas KM7 ; Abbasi SW8 ; Abbastabar H10 ; Abdallah F21 ; Abdoli A23 Show All Authors
Authors
  1. Galles NC1
  2. Updike RL1
  3. Fullman N1
  4. Nguyen J1
  5. Rolfe S1
  6. Sbarra AN1
  7. Schipp MF1
  8. Marks A1
  9. Abady GG6
  10. Abbas KM7
  11. Abbasi SW8
  12. Abbastabar H10
  13. Abdallah F21
  14. Abdoli A23
  15. Abolhassani H11
  16. Abosetugn AE25
  17. Adabi M28
  18. Adamu AA4, 29
  19. Adetokunboh OO4, 31
  20. Adnani QES32, 33
  21. Advani SM34, 35, 36
  22. Afzal S38, 39
  23. Aghamir SMK12
  24. Ahinkorah BO40
  25. Ahmad S41
  26. Ahmad T42
  27. Ahmed H46
  28. Ahmed MB47
  29. Ahmed Rashid T49
  30. Ahmed Salih Y50, 51
  31. Aklilu A58
  32. Akunna CJ61
  33. Al Hamad H62
  34. Albano L65
  35. Alemayehu Y56
  36. Alene KA66, 67
  37. Aleyadhy A68
  38. Alhassan RK70
  39. Ali L8
  40. Aljunid SM72, 73
  41. Almustanyir S74, 75
  42. Altirkawi KA68
  43. Alvisguzman N77, 78
  44. Amu H71
  45. Andrei CL79
  46. Andrei T82
  47. Ansar A84
  48. Ansarimoghaddam A85
  49. Arabloo J89
  50. Arabzozani M95
  51. Artanti KD96
  52. Arulappan J97
  53. Awan AT98, 99
  54. Awoke MA100
  55. Ayza MA101
  56. Azarian G27
  57. Azzam AY102
  58. Balakrishnan S107
  59. Banach M110, 111
  60. Bante SA56, 64
  61. Barnighausen TW115, 116
  62. Barqawi HJ117
  63. Barrow A121
  64. Bassat Q123
  65. Bayarmagnai N105, 125
  66. Bejarano Ramirez DF105, 126, 127
  67. Belay HG105, 129
  68. Belgaumi UI130
  69. Bhagavathula AS131, 132
  70. Bhandari D135, 138
  71. Bhardwaj N140
  72. Bhardwaj P108, 141
  73. Bhaskar S144, 145
  74. Bhattacharyya K147
  75. Bibi S148
  76. Bijani A149
  77. Biondi A150
  78. Boloor A151
  79. Braithwaite D154
  80. Buonsenso D156
  81. Butt ZA158, 159
  82. Camargos P160
  83. Carreras G161, 162
  84. Carvalho F163
  85. Castanedaorjuela CA167, 168
  86. Charan J142
  87. Chatterjee S170
  88. Chattu SK171
  89. Chowdhury FR80, 88, 174
  90. Cortesi PA87
  91. Costa VM163
  92. Couto RAS164
  93. Dadras O180, 181
  94. Dagnew AB26, 43
  95. Dagnew B53
  96. Dai X1
  97. Dandona L1, 184
  98. Dandona R1
  99. Derbew Molla M54
  100. Derseh BT25
  101. Desai R185
  102. Desta AA55
  103. Dhamnetiya D186
  104. Dhimal ML187, 189
  105. Dhimal M190
  106. Dianatinasab M191, 192
  107. Diaz D194
  108. Djalalinia S196
  109. Dorostkar F90
  110. Edem B197
  111. Edinur HA198
  112. Eftekharzadeh S199
  113. El Sayed I200
  114. El Sayed Zaki M201
  115. Elhadi M202
  116. Elsharkawy A22
  117. Enany S203
  118. Erkhembayar R204
  119. Esezobor CI205, 207
  120. Eskandarieh S13
  121. Ezeonwumelu IJ208, 209
  122. Ezzikouri S211
  123. Fares J212
  124. Faris PS213
  125. Feleke BE14, 21
  126. Ferede TY215
  127. Fernandes E165
  128. Fernandes JC217
  129. Ferrara P86
  130. Filip I219
  131. Fischer F220
  132. Francis MR221
  133. Fukumoto T223
  134. Gad MM224, 228
  135. Gaidhane S229
  136. Gallus S230
  137. Garg T231
  138. Geberemariyam BS232
  139. Gebre T234
  140. Gebregiorgis BG26
  141. Gebremedhin KB235
  142. Gebremichael B108
  143. Gessner BD236, 237, 238
  144. Ghadiri K239
  145. Ghafourifard M241
  146. Ghashghaee A89
  147. Glushkova EV249
  148. Golechha M250
  149. Gonfa KB233
  150. Gopalani SV251
  151. Goudarzi H253
  152. Gubari MIM255
  153. Guo Y256
  154. Gupta VK260
  155. Gutierrez RA261
  156. Haeuser E1
  157. Halwani R117, 118
  158. Hamidi S262
  159. Hanif A246
  160. Haque S263
  161. Harapan H265
  162. Hashi A267
  163. Hassan S268
  164. Hassanein MH225
  165. Hassanipour S270, 271
  166. Hassankhani H242, 272, 273, 299
  167. Hay SI1, 2
  168. Hayat K274
  169. Heidari G276, 277
  170. Hezam K278, 279
  171. Holla R103, 104
  172. Hoque ME280
  173. Hosseini M14
  174. Hosseinzadeh M89
  175. Hostiuc M80
  176. Househ M283
  177. Huang J285
  178. Humayun A286
  179. Hussain R287
  180. Hussein NR288
  181. Ibitoye SE289
  182. Ilesanmi OS290
  183. Ilic IM291
  184. Ilic MD293
  185. Inamdar S294
  186. Iqbal U295
  187. Irham LM296
  188. Ismail NE301
  189. Itumalla R302
  190. Jha RP303, 304
  191. Joukar F270, 271
  192. Kabir A92
  193. Kabir Z305
  194. Kalhor R306
  195. Kamal Z308
  196. Kamande SM37
  197. Kandel H282, 310
  198. Karch A311
  199. Kassahun G216
  200. Kassebaum NJ1, 2, 3
  201. Katoto PD4, 5, 312
  202. Kelkay B56
  203. Kengne AP313, 314
  204. Khader YS316
  205. Khajuria H317
  206. Khalil IA4
  207. Khan EA318
  208. Khan G133
  209. Khan J319
  210. Khan MA134, 264, 321
  211. Khan MA134, 264, 321
  212. Khang YH322, 323
  213. Khoja AT325, 326
  214. Khubchandani J327
  215. Kimokoti RW333
  216. Kisa A334, 335
  217. Kisa S336
  218. Korshunov VA249
  219. Kosen S337, 338
  220. Kuate Defo B339, 340
  221. Kulkarni V105, 124
  222. Kumar A341
  223. Kwarteng A342
  224. La Vecchia C343
  225. Lami FH344
  226. Landires I348
  227. Lasrado S349
  228. Lassi ZS136
  229. Lee H350
  230. Lee YY351, 352
  231. Levi M353
  232. Lewycka S355, 358
  233. Li S257
  234. Liu X226
  235. Lobo SW362, 363
  236. Lopukhov PD249
  237. Lozano R1, 2
  238. Lutzky Saute R364
  239. Magdy Abd El Razek M366
  240. Makki A119
  241. Malik AA246
  242. Mansourghanaei F270, 271
  243. Mansournia MA14
  244. Mantovani LG87
  245. Martinsmelo FR369
  246. Matthews PC356
  247. Mendoza W373
  248. Menezes RG374
  249. Mengesha EW113
  250. Meretoja TJ375, 376
  251. Mersha AG378
  252. Mesregah MK379
  253. Mestrovic T382
  254. Miazgowski B383, 384
  255. Milne GJ385
  256. Mirica A82
  257. Mirrakhimov EM386, 387
  258. Misra S143
  259. Moghadaszadeh M243, 244
  260. Mohamed TA388
  261. Mohammad KA389
  262. Mohammad Y69
  263. Mohammadi M390
  264. Mohammadianhafshejani A391
  265. Mohammed A392
  266. Mohammed S115
  267. Mohapatra A394
  268. Mokdad AH1, 2
  269. Molokhia M395
  270. Monasta L396
  271. Montasir AA397, 398
  272. Moore CE357
  273. Moradi G14, 21
  274. Moraga P401
  275. Mueller UO402, 404
  276. Munro SB405
  277. Naghavi M1
  278. Naimzada MD406, 407
  279. Naveed M408
  280. Nayak BP317
  281. Negoi I81
  282. Neupane Kandel S410
  283. Nguyen TH411
  284. Nikbakhsh R44
  285. Ningrum DNA297
  286. Nixon MR1
  287. Nnaji CA30, 315
  288. Nunezsamudio V347
  289. Nwatah VE415, 416
  290. Oancea B417
  291. Ochir C204, 418
  292. Ogbo FA419
  293. Olagunju AT420
  294. Olakunde BO421
  295. Onwujekwe OE422
  296. Otstavnov N406
  297. Otstavnov SS406, 423
  298. Owolabi MO126
  299. Padubidri JR103, 104
  300. Pakshir K193
  301. Park EC328, 329
  302. Pashazadeh Kan F94
  303. Pathak M424
  304. Pawar S425
  305. Pereira J426
  306. Peres MFP427, 428
  307. Perianayagam A320
  308. Pinheiro M166
  309. Pirestani M429
  310. Podder V135, 430
  311. Polibin RV249
  312. Pollok RCG431
  313. Postma MJ432, 433
  314. Pottoo FH142, 380
  315. Rabiee M434
  316. Rabiee N435
  317. Radfar A436
  318. Rafiei A437, 438
  319. Rahimimovaghar V17
  320. Rahman M440
  321. Rahmani AM413, 441
  322. Rahmawaty S442
  323. Rajesh A443
  324. Ramshaw RE1
  325. Ranasinghe P444
  326. Rao CR105
  327. Rao SJ445
  328. Rathi P103, 104
  329. Rawaf DL446, 449
  330. Rawaf S447
  331. Renzaho AMN451, 452
  332. Rezaei N18, 19
  333. Riosblancas M453
  334. Rogowski ELB1
  335. Ronfani L396
  336. Rwegerera GM454
  337. Saad AM227
  338. Sabour S45
  339. Saddik B120
  340. Saeed U456
  341. Sahebkar A243, 458
  342. Sahraian MA13
  343. Salam N459
  344. Salimzadeh H20
  345. Samaei M460
  346. Samy AM461
  347. Sanabria J360
  348. Sanmarchi F463
  349. Santricmilicevic MM291, 292
  350. Sartorius B2, 355, 356
  351. Sarveazad A93
  352. Sathian B62
  353. Sawhney M465
  354. Saxena D45, 52
  355. Saxena S108
  356. Seylani A468
  357. Shaikh MA469, 470
  358. Shamsizadeh M471
  359. Shetty PH152
  360. Shigematsu M472, 473
  361. Sidemo NB59
  362. Singh JA57, 474
  363. Sinha S153
  364. Skryabin VY475
  365. Skryabina AA476
  366. Soheili A477
  367. Tadesse EG60
  368. Tamiru AT56
  369. Tekalegn Y232
  370. Thakur B479
  371. Thapar R105
  372. Thavamani A361, 480
  373. Tobegai R481
  374. Tohidinik HR482
  375. Tovanipalone MR179, 365, 483, 484
  376. Traini E396
  377. Tran BX486
  378. Tripathi M487
  379. Tsegaye B216
  380. Tsegaye GW114
  381. Ullah A9
  382. Ullah S148
  383. Ullah S148
  384. Unim B490
  385. Vacante M150
  386. Velazquez DZ195
  387. Vo B491
  388. Vollmer S492
  389. Vu GT493
  390. Vu LG411, 412
  391. Waheed Y494
  392. Winkler AS495
  393. Wiysonge CS30, 315
  394. Yigit V497
  395. Yirdaw BW56
  396. Yon DK324
  397. Yonemoto N498, 499
  398. Yu C500
  399. Yuce D501
  400. Yunusa I116, 502
  401. Zamani M91
  402. Zamanian M400
  403. Zewdie DT109
  404. Zhang ZJ57
  405. Zhong C285
  406. Zumla A177, 448
  407. Murray CJL1
  408. Lim SS1
  409. Mosser JF1
  410. Nguyen J1
  411. Marks A1
  412. Naghavi M1
  413. Murray CJL1
  414. Lim SS1
  415. Dandona R1
  416. Naghavi M1
  417. Murray CJL1
  418. Lim SS1
  419. Ali L8
  420. Ullah A9
  421. Hosseini M14
  422. Feleke BE14, 21
  423. Moradi G14, 21
  424. Elsharkawy A22
  425. Abolhassani H11
  426. Ahmad S41
  427. Ahmad T42
  428. Sabour S45
  429. Ahmed H46
  430. Ahmed MB47
  431. Saxena D45, 52
  432. Dagnew B53
  433. Aklilu A58
  434. Alemayehu Y56
  435. Al Hamad H62
  436. Sathian B62
  437. Al Hamad H62
  438. Albano L65
  439. Aleyadhy A68
  440. Altirkawi KA68
  441. Temsah M68
  442. Mohammad Y69
  443. Amu H71
  444. Hostiuc M80
  445. Negoi I81
  446. Glavan I82
  447. Ansar A84
  448. Antonazzo I86
  449. Ferrara P86
  450. Mantovani LG87
  451. Singh Mtech A88
  452. Arabloo J89
  453. Ghashghaee A89
  454. Ghashghaee A89
  455. Sarveazad A93
  456. Artanti KD96
  457. Arulappan J97
  458. Awoke MA100
  459. Rathi P103, 104
  460. Babar Z106
  461. Gebremichael B108
  462. Zamani M91
  463. Barrow A121
  464. Barrow A121
  465. Hosseini M14
  466. Kulkarni V105, 124
  467. Saxena D45, 52
  468. Lassi ZS136
  469. Shin J118, 139
  470. Misra S143
  471. Bhattacharyya K147
  472. Bibi S148
  473. Ullah S148
  474. Boloor A151
  475. Sinha S153
  476. Braithwaite D154
  477. Braithwaite D154
  478. Buonsenso D156
  479. Buonsenso D156
  480. Tsegaye GW114
  481. De Neve J115
  482. Camargos P160
  483. Pinheiro M166
  484. Chakinala R169
  485. Chatterjee S170
  486. Chattu V172
  487. Chattu V172
  488. Bill I173
  489. Chu D175
  490. Chung S176
  491. Chung S176
  492. Dandona L1, 184
  493. Dandona R1
  494. Ansar A84
  495. Kumar G182, 183
  496. Desai R185
  497. Dhimal M190
  498. Diaz D194
  499. Diaz D194
  500. Eftekharzadeh S199
  501. El Sayed I200
  502. El Sayed Zaki M201
  503. Elhadi M202
  504. Enany S203
  505. Erkhembayar R204
  506. Olagunju AT420
  507. Fares J212
  508. Faris PS213
  509. Faris PS213
  510. Tsegaye B216
  511. Filip I219
  512. Fischer F220
  513. Francis MR221
  514. Francis MR221
  515. Fukumoto T223
  516. Liu X226
  517. Saad AM227
  518. Garg T231
  519. Tekalegn Y232
  520. Mohammed S115
  521. Gebre T234
  522. Ghadiri K239
  523. Ghadiri K239
  524. Ghafourifard M241
  525. Moghadaszadeh M243, 244
  526. Gilani S245
  527. Malik AA246
  528. Gilani S245
  529. Lopukhov PD249
  530. Golechha M250
  531. Gopalani SV251
  532. Goudarzi H253
  533. Ahmed MB47
  534. Goudarzi H253
  535. Gubari MIM255
  536. Guo Y256
  537. Li S257
  538. Guo Y256
  539. Gupta V259
  540. Gupta VK260
  541. Gutierrez RA261
  542. Hargono Dr A266
  543. Hassan S268
  544. Hassan S268
  545. Hayat K274
  546. Hayat K274
  547. Heidari G276, 277
  548. Hezam K278, 279
  549. Islam S281
  550. Hsieh V284
  551. Huang J285
  552. Zhong C285
  553. Humayun A286
  554. Hussain R287
  555. Makki A119
  556. Noubiap J137
  557. Inamdar S294
  558. Iqbal U295
  559. Irham LM296
  560. Irvani SN273, 298, 299
  561. Islam S281
  562. Kalhor R306
  563. Kalhor R306
  564. Kamal Z308
  565. Kamal Z308
  566. Karch A311
  567. Khan J319
  568. Kim G328
  569. Kim M330
  570. Kim M330
  571. Kim Y332
  572. Kosen S337, 338
  573. Kumar A341
  574. Kwarteng A342
  575. La Vecchia C343
  576. Landires I348
  577. Nunezsamudio V347
  578. Lasrado S349
  579. Levi M353
  580. Levi M353
  581. Moore CE357
  582. Liu X226
  583. Sanabria J360
  584. Malik AA246
  585. Mantovani LG87
  586. Matthews PC356
  587. Medina JC371
  588. Medina JC371
  589. Mendoza W373
  590. Menezes RG374
  591. Mesregah MK379
  592. Mestrovic T382
  593. Mohammadi M390
  594. Mohammed A392
  595. Mohammed S115
  596. Mohapatra A394
  597. Molokhia M395
  598. Traini E396
  599. Moradi G14, 21
  600. Mirzaei H16, 400
  601. Zamanian M400
  602. Munro SB405
  603. Naveed M408
  604. Negoi I81
  605. Nguyen TH411
  606. Nguyen TH411
  607. Ningrum DNA297
  608. Pathak M424
  609. Pawar S425
  610. Pirestani M429
  611. Rabiee M434
  612. Rezai M439
  613. Rahman M440
  614. Rahmawaty S442
  615. Rajesh A443
  616. Rawaf S447
  617. Rawaf S447
  618. Rwegerera GM454
  619. Saeb M455
  620. Saeed U456
  621. Saeed U456
  622. Salam N459
  623. Samaei M460
  624. Sanabria J360
  625. Sanmarchi F463
  626. Sathian B62
  627. Sawhney M465
  628. Seidu A466
  629. Seidu A466
  630. Shaikh MA469, 470
  631. Shigematsu M472, 473
  632. Tan K478
  633. Thakur B479
  634. Traini E396
  635. Tripathi M487
  636. Ullah S148
  637. Ullah S148
  638. Vo B491
  639. Vu GT493
  640. Winkler AS495
  641. Winkler AS495
  642. Yu C500
  643. Yuce D501

Source: The Lancet Published:2021


Abstract

Background: Measuring routine childhood vaccination is crucial to inform global vaccine policies and programme implementation, and to track progress towards targets set by the Global Vaccine Action Plan (GVAP) and Immunization Agenda 2030. Robust estimates of routine vaccine coverage are needed to identify past successes and persistent vulnerabilities. Drawing from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2020, Release 1, we did a systematic analysis of global, regional, and national vaccine coverage trends using a statistical framework, by vaccine and over time. Methods: For this analysis we collated 55 326 country-specific, cohort-specific, year-specific, vaccine-specific, and dose-specific observations of routine childhood vaccination coverage between 1980 and 2019. Using spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, we produced location-specific and year-specific estimates of 11 routine childhood vaccine coverage indicators for 204 countries and territories from 1980 to 2019, adjusting for biases in country-reported data and reflecting reported stockouts and supply disruptions. We analysed global and regional trends in coverage and numbers of zero-dose children (defined as those who never received a diphtheria-tetanus-pertussis [DTP] vaccine dose), progress towards GVAP targets, and the relationship between vaccine coverage and sociodemographic development. Findings: By 2019, global coverage of third-dose DTP (DTP3; 81·6% [95% uncertainty interval 80·4–82·7]) more than doubled from levels estimated in 1980 (39·9% [37·5–42·1]), as did global coverage of the first-dose measles-containing vaccine (MCV1; from 38·5% [35·4–41·3] in 1980 to 83·6% [82·3–84·8] in 2019). Third-dose polio vaccine (Pol3) coverage also increased, from 42·6% (41·4–44·1) in 1980 to 79·8% (78·4–81·1) in 2019, and global coverage of newer vaccines increased rapidly between 2000 and 2019. The global number of zero-dose children fell by nearly 75% between 1980 and 2019, from 56·8 million (52·6–60·9) to 14·5 million (13·4–15·9). However, over the past decade, global vaccine coverage broadly plateaued; 94 countries and territories recorded decreasing DTP3 coverage since 2010. Only 11 countries and territories were estimated to have reached the national GVAP target of at least 90% coverage for all assessed vaccines in 2019. Interpretation: After achieving large gains in childhood vaccine coverage worldwide, in much of the world this progress was stalled or reversed from 2010 to 2019. These findings underscore the importance of revisiting routine immunisation strategies and programmatic approaches, recentring service delivery around equity and underserved populations. Strengthening vaccine data and monitoring systems is crucial to these pursuits, now and through to 2030, to ensure that all children have access to, and can benefit from, lifesaving vaccines. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2021 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license
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