Comparative Study of Predictive Ability of Aids Incidence in Hiv Positive People Using Markov Model According to Two Criteria, Who and Cdc in Cd4 Cell Categorization

Comparative Study of Predictive Ability of Aids Incidence in Hiv Positive People Using Markov Model According to Two Criteria, Who and Cdc in Cd4 Cell Categorization

Nazari M¹ ; Zayeri F² ; Nazari SSH³ ; Jambarsang S⁴ ; Nikfarjam A⁵ ; Baghban AA⁶

Show Affiliations

1. Department of Biostatistics, Faculty of Paramedical Sciences, Student Research Committee, Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
2. Department of Biostatistics, Faculty of Paramedical Sciences, Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
3. Department of Epidemiology, Safety Promotion and Injury Prevention Research Center, School of Public Health, Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
4. Department of Biostatistics, Research Center of Prevention and Epidemiology of Non-Communicable Disease, School of Public Health, Shahid Sadoughi University of Medical Sciences, Yazd, Iran
5. Head of Communicable Disease Control and Prevention Ward, Deputy of Health Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
6. Proteomics Research Center, School of Rehabilitation, Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran

Source: Tehran University Medical Journal Published:2019

Abstract

Background: The Multi state Markov models have extensively application with categorization of laboratory marker of CD4 cells for evaluation of HIV disease progression. These models with different states result in different effects of covariates and prediction of HIV disease trend. The main purpose of this study was comparison of four and five states models with the three-state in order to select the model with better prediction ability of occurrence of HIV and finally death in HIV positive people. Methods: A total of 305 HIV positive people were included in this cohort study in the Iran AIDS center in Imam Khomeini Hospital in Tehran that entered during March 1995 to January 2005 and then fallowed up to October 2014. The three continuoustime Markov models of three-, four-and five-state models were fitted to data to describe the evolution of a HIV disease Trend over different states. For comparison of models, two criteria of modification of Akaike’s criterion (DRAIC) and likelihood cross-validation criterion (DRLCV) along with their 95% tracking interval was used. For fitting of these models and estimation of transition matrix and the hazard ratio of gender and treatment independent variables, the msm package of R project for statistical computing, version R 3.2.4 (www.r-project.org) was used. Results: The results showed that the four-state model has more prediction ability than five-state model for evaluation of HIV disease Trend. In the four-state model, the progression hazard ratio to death for people who received highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) was 0.64 lower than who didn’t get this therapy. Moreover, the progression hazard ratio for men was 2.33 fold in comparison to women. The disease progression hazard ratio to death was 4.9 fold for men in comparison to women. Conclusion: The (DRAIC) and (DRLCV) criterions showed that the four-state model has more predictive ability of the progression trend of HIV disease in comparison of fivestate model. © (Publisher name) (Publishing Year). All Rights Reserved.

2. Investigating the Different Stages in the Progress of Cirrhosis Using the Markov Model, Govaresh (2016)

Experts (# of related papers)

Mohsen Nasiri Toosi (1)

Style	Citing Format
MLA	Nazari M, et al.. "Comparative Study of Predictive Ability of Aids Incidence in Hiv Positive People Using Markov Model According to Two Criteria, Who and Cdc in Cd4 Cell Categorization." Tehran University Medical Journal, vol. 77, no. 2, 2019, pp. 123-131.
APA	Nazari M, Zayeri F, Nazari SSH, Jambarsang S, Nikfarjam A, Baghban AA (2019). Comparative Study of Predictive Ability of Aids Incidence in Hiv Positive People Using Markov Model According to Two Criteria, Who and Cdc in Cd4 Cell Categorization. Tehran University Medical Journal, 77(2), 123-131.
Chicago	Nazari M, Zayeri F, Nazari SSH, Jambarsang S, Nikfarjam A, Baghban AA. "Comparative Study of Predictive Ability of Aids Incidence in Hiv Positive People Using Markov Model According to Two Criteria, Who and Cdc in Cd4 Cell Categorization." Tehran University Medical Journal 77, no. 2 (2019): 123-131.
Harvard	Nazari M et al. (2019) 'Comparative Study of Predictive Ability of Aids Incidence in Hiv Positive People Using Markov Model According to Two Criteria, Who and Cdc in Cd4 Cell Categorization', Tehran University Medical Journal, 77(2), pp. 123-131.
Vancouver	Nazari M, Zayeri F, Nazari SSH, Jambarsang S, Nikfarjam A, Baghban AA. Comparative Study of Predictive Ability of Aids Incidence in Hiv Positive People Using Markov Model According to Two Criteria, Who and Cdc in Cd4 Cell Categorization. Tehran University Medical Journal. 2019;77(2):123-131.
BibTex	@article{ author = {Nazari M and Zayeri F and Nazari SSH and Jambarsang S and Nikfarjam A and Baghban AA}, title = {Comparative Study of Predictive Ability of Aids Incidence in Hiv Positive People Using Markov Model According to Two Criteria, Who and Cdc in Cd4 Cell Categorization}, journal = {Tehran University Medical Journal}, volume = {77}, number = {2}, pages = {123-131}, year = {2019} }
RIS	TY - JOUR AU - Nazari M AU - Zayeri F AU - Nazari SSH AU - Jambarsang S AU - Nikfarjam A AU - Baghban AA TI - Comparative Study of Predictive Ability of Aids Incidence in Hiv Positive People Using Markov Model According to Two Criteria, Who and Cdc in Cd4 Cell Categorization JO - Tehran University Medical Journal VL - 77 IS - 2 SP - 123 EP - 131 PY - 2019 ER -

Science Communicator Platform

Authors

Authors Affiliations

Abstract