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Estimates of Global, Regional, and National Incidence, Prevalence, and Mortality of Hiv, 1980–2015: The Global Burden of Disease Study 2015 Publisher Pubmed



Wang H1 ; Wolock TM1 ; Carter A1 ; Nguyen G1 ; Kyu HH1 ; Gakidou E1 ; Hay SI1 ; Msemburi W1 ; Coates MM1 ; Mooney MD1 ; Fraser MS1 ; Sligar A1 ; Larson HJ1 ; Friedman J1 Show All Authors
Authors
  1. Wang H1
  2. Wolock TM1
  3. Carter A1
  4. Nguyen G1
  5. Kyu HH1
  6. Gakidou E1
  7. Hay SI1
  8. Msemburi W1
  9. Coates MM1
  10. Mooney MD1
  11. Fraser MS1
  12. Sligar A1
  13. Larson HJ1
  14. Friedman J1
  15. Brown A1
  16. Dandona L1, 149
  17. Fullman N1
  18. Haagsma J1
  19. Khalil I1
  20. Lim SS1
  21. Mikesell J1
  22. Mokdad AH1
  23. Moradilakeh M1, 324
  24. Pearson K1
  25. Silpakit N1
  26. Sorensen RJD1
  27. Temesgen AM1
  28. Vollset SE1, 339, 430
  29. Zoeckler L1
  30. Murray CJL1
  31. Alfonsocristancho R2
  32. Harun KM2, 221
  33. Prokop DM2
  34. Mills EJ3
  35. Trickey A4
  36. Ajala ON5, 32
  37. Barnighausen T5, 93
  38. Ding EL5
  39. Farvid MS5, 184
  40. Thornelyman AL6, 414
  41. Won S7, 139
  42. Fitchett JRA8
  43. Salomon J8
  44. Abajobir AA9
  45. Hoy DG10, 228
  46. Alam NKM11, 46
  47. Abate KH12
  48. Ghiwot TT12
  49. Gebremedhin AT12, 193
  50. Abbas KM13
  51. Abd El Razek MM14
  52. Abdallah F15
  53. Abdulle AM16
  54. Abera SF17, 20
  55. Melaku YA9, 53
  56. Tesfay FH18, 357
  57. Abyu GY19
  58. Bayou TA19
  59. Betsu BD19
  60. Gebru AA19, 20
  61. Hailu GB19, 20
  62. Tekle T19
  63. Yalew AZ19
  64. Yebyo HG19, 444
  65. Abubakar I21
  66. Aldridge RW21
  67. Aburaddad LJ22
  68. Aburmeileh NME23
  69. Adebiyi AO24, 27
  70. Adedeji IA25, 28
  71. Adelekan AL26, 29
  72. Ojelabi FA26
  73. Adofo K30
  74. Adou AK31
  75. Akinyemiju TF33
  76. Schwebel DC34
  77. Singh JA34
  78. Akseer N35, 36
  79. Al Lami FH37
  80. Alaly Z38
  81. Alam K39, 43, 45
  82. Weintraub RG39, 43, 434
  83. Chiang PP40
  84. Meretoja A41, 314
  85. Lopez AD42
  86. Wijeratne T43, 436
  87. Driscoll TR44
  88. Kemp AH45, 100
  89. Leigh J45
  90. Mekonnen AB45, 309
  91. Karema CK47
  92. Alasfoor D48
  93. Aldhahri SFS49, 51
  94. Terkawi AS50, 410, 411
  95. Alegretti MA52
  96. Aleman AV53
  97. Alemu ZA54, 55
  98. Cooper C56, 142, 143
  99. Deribew A57, 159
  100. Gething PW58
  101. Ali R59
  102. Bennett DA59
  103. Bisanzio D59
  104. Rahimi K59
  105. Alkerwi A60
  106. Alla F61
  107. Alraddadi RMS62
  108. Saeedi MY62
  109. Alsharif U63
  110. Alvarez E64
  111. Alvisguzman N65
  112. Amare AT33, 68, 69
  113. Hoek HW33, 66
  114. Tura AK67, 198
  115. Ciobanu LG70
  116. Tessema GA70, 309
  117. Amberbir A71
  118. Amegah AK72
  119. Ammar W73
  120. Harb HL73
  121. Amrock SM74
  122. Antonio CAT75
  123. Anwari P76
  124. Arnlov J77, 78
  125. Larsson A77
  126. Artaman A79
  127. Asayesh H80
  128. Asghar RJ81
  129. Assadi R82
  130. Atique S83
  131. Atkins LS84
  132. Avokpaho EFGA85, 86
  133. Awasthi A87
  134. Bhatia E87
  135. Ayala BP88, 89
  136. Bacha U90
  137. Badawi A91
  138. Barac A92
  139. Basu A94
  140. Bayou YT95
  141. Bazarganhejazi S96
  142. Beardsley J97
  143. Bedi N98
  144. Santos IS99
  145. Bensenor IM100
  146. Lotufo PA100
  147. Beyene AS101
  148. Bhutta ZA102, 104
  149. Nisar MI103
  150. Biadgilign S105
  151. Bikbov B106
  152. Birlik SM107
  153. Brainin M108
  154. Brazinova A109, 111, 112
  155. Majdan M110
  156. Breitborde NJK113, 114
  157. Oren E114
  158. Burch M115
  159. Butt ZA116
  160. Campuzano JC117
  161. Herediapi IB117
  162. Servanmori EE117
  163. Cardenas R118
  164. Fereshtehnejad S119
  165. Kivipelto M120
  166. Weiderpass E121, 431, 432, 433
  167. Carrero JJ122
  168. Havmoeller R122
  169. Sindi S122
  170. Castanedaorjuela CA123, 124
  171. Castillo Rivas J125, 126
  172. Catalalopez F127, 129
  173. Tabaresseisdedos R128
  174. Chang H130, 131
  175. Chang J132
  176. Chavan L133
  177. Chen W134
  178. Chibalabala M135
  179. Chisumpa VH136, 137
  180. Mapoma CC136
  181. Masiye F136
  182. De Jager P9, 153, 154
  183. Petzold M137, 358
  184. Choi JJ138, 140
  185. Khang Y24
  186. Christopher DJ141
  187. Mohammed S144, 322
  188. Dahiru T145
  189. Damtew SA146, 147
  190. Deribe K9, 158
  191. Temam G147, 169
  192. Jeemon P148
  193. Dandona R149
  194. Goenka S149
  195. Kumar GA149
  196. Lal DK149
  197. Murthy GVS149, 180
  198. Zodpey S149
  199. Das Neves J150, 151
  200. Pereira DM152
  201. De Leo D155
  202. Degenhardt L156
  203. Dellavalle RP157
  204. Des Jarlais DC160, 161
  205. Dharmaratne SD162
  206. Doshi PP163
  207. Doyle KE164, 165
  208. Dubey M166
  209. Rahman MHU166
  210. Ram U166
  211. Yadav AK166
  212. Elshrek YM167
  213. Elyazar I168
  214. Endries AY169
  215. Ermakov SP170, 171
  216. Eshrati B172, 173
  217. Esteghamati A174
  218. Hafezinejad N174
  219. Sheikhbahaei S174
  220. Farzadfar F175
  221. Kasaeian A175, 176
  222. Malekzadeh R177
  223. Roshandel G177, 375
  224. Sepanlou SG177
  225. Rahimimovaghar V178
  226. Yaseri M179, 443
  227. Faghmous IDA180
  228. Langan SM180
  229. Mckee M180
  230. Farinha CS181, 182
  231. Faro A183
  232. Fernandes JC185
  233. Fischer F186
  234. Foigt N187
  235. Furst T188
  236. Majeed A189
  237. Gankpe FG190, 191
  238. Gebre T192
  239. Geleijnse JM194
  240. Jibat T195, 247
  241. Gessner BD196
  242. Giroud M197
  243. Gishu MD198, 199
  244. Glaser E200
  245. Goodridge A201
  246. Gopalani SV202
  247. Goto A203
  248. Gugnani HC204
  249. Guimaraes MDC205
  250. Gupta R206, 207
  251. Gupta V208
  252. Hagan H209
  253. Hamadeh RR210
  254. Hamidi S211
  255. Hammami M212
  256. Hankey GJ213, 214, 215
  257. Hao Y216
  258. Harikrishnan S217
  259. Koyanagi A218
  260. Haro JM219, 220
  261. Hedayati MT222
  262. Skirbekk V223
  263. Horino M224, 225, 396
  264. Horita N226
  265. Hosgood HD227
  266. Hsairi M229
  267. Hu G230
  268. Huang H231
  269. Huang JJ232
  270. Iburg KM233
  271. Idrisov BT234, 235
  272. Innos K236
  273. Iyer VJ237
  274. Jacobsen KH238
  275. Jahanmehr N239
  276. Jakovljevic MB240
  277. Javanbakht M241
  278. Jayatilleke AU242, 243
  279. Jha V244
  280. Jiang G245
  281. Jiang Y246
  282. Jonas JB248
  283. Kabir Z249
  284. Kamal R250
  285. Kesavachandran CN250
  286. She J251
  287. Zhang H252, 454
  288. Kan H253
  289. Karch A254, 255
  290. Karletsos D256
  291. Kaul A257
  292. Kawakami N9
  293. Shibuya K258
  294. Kayibanda JF259
  295. Keiyoro PN260, 261
  296. Kengne AP262, 264
  297. Sliwa K263
  298. Mayosi BM264
  299. Khader YS265
  300. Khan AR266
  301. Khan EA267, 268
  302. Khubchandani J269
  303. Kim YJ270
  304. Kinfu Y271
  305. Kokubo Y272
  306. Kosen S273
  307. Koul PA274
  308. Kuate Defo B275, 276
  309. Kucuk Bicer B277, 278
  310. Kulkarni VS279
  311. Lam H280
  312. Lam JO281
  313. Tran BX282, 421
  314. Lansingh VC283, 284
  315. Leung R285
  316. Li Y286
  317. Lipshultz SE287, 288
  318. Wilkinson JD288, 437
  319. Liu S289
  320. Wang L289
  321. Yu S290
  322. Lloyd BK291, 292
  323. Logroscino G293
  324. Lunevicius R294, 295
  325. Magdy H296
  326. Zaki ME296
  327. Polinder S297
  328. Mahdavi M298, 299
  329. Mahesh PA300
  330. Marcenes W301
  331. Martinezraga J302, 303
  332. Marzan MB304
  333. Masonjones AJ305
  334. Meaney PA306, 307
  335. Mehndiratta MM308
  336. Tedla BA309, 409
  337. Memiah P310
  338. Memish ZA311, 312
  339. Mendoza W313
  340. Meretoja TJ315, 316
  341. Mhimbira FA317
  342. Miller TR318, 319
  343. Mirarefi M320
  344. Mohammad KA321
  345. Monasta L323
  346. Mori R325
  347. Werdecker A326
  348. Mueller UO327
  349. Westerman R327, 435
  350. Murimira B328, 329
  351. Naheed A330
  352. Naldi L331
  353. Nangia V332
  354. Nash D333
  355. Nawaz H334
  356. Nejjari C335
  357. Ngalesoni FN336
  358. Ngirabega JD337
  359. Nguyen QL338
  360. Norheim OF340
  361. Norman RE341
  362. Nyakarahuka L342
  363. Obermeyer CM343
  364. Ogbo FA344
  365. Oh I345
  366. Olusanya BO346
  367. Olusanya JO347
  368. Opio JN348
  369. Ota E349
  370. Park H350
  371. Park J351
  372. Patil ST352
  373. Patten SB353
  374. Paul VK354
  375. Roy A354
  376. Sagar R354
  377. Peprah EK355
  378. Perico N356
  379. Remuzzi G331, 356
  380. Pesudovs K357
  381. Phillips MR359, 361
  382. Simard EP360
  383. Pillay JD362
  384. Plass D363
  385. Pourmalek F364
  386. Qorbani M365
  387. Rafay A366, 367
  388. Rana SM366, 367
  389. Rahman M368
  390. Rahman SU369
  391. Rai RK370
  392. Rajsic S371
  393. Rao PV372, 373
  394. Rojasrueda D374
  395. Ruhago GM376
  396. Sunguya BF376
  397. Saleh MM377
  398. Sanabria JR378, 379
  399. Sarmientosuarez R380
  400. Sartorius B381
  401. Yakob B381
  402. Sawhney M382
  403. Schutte AE383, 384
  404. Seedat S385
  405. Wiysonge CS385
  406. Shaikh MA386
  407. Sharma R387
  408. Shen J388, 389
  409. Shin HH390
  410. Sigfusdottir ID391
  411. Silva DAS392
  412. Silveira DGA393
  413. Singh OP394
  414. Singh PK395
  415. Soneji S397
  416. Soriano JB398
  417. Soti DO399
  418. Sreeramareddy CT400
  419. Stathopoulou V401
  420. Steel N402, 403
  421. Swaminathan S404
  422. Sykes BL405
  423. Talongwa RT406
  424. Tavakkoli M407
  425. Taye B408
  426. Thapa K412
  427. Thomson AJ413
  428. Tobegai R415
  429. Topormadry R416, 417
  430. Towbin JA418, 419, 420
  431. Tsala Z422
  432. Tsilimparis N423
  433. Ukwaja KN424
  434. Uneke CJ425
  435. Uthman OA426
  436. Venketasubramanian N427
  437. Vladimirov SK428
  438. Vlassov VV429
  439. Wolfe CDA438, 439
  440. Wong JQ440
  441. Xu G441
  442. Yano Y442
  443. Yip P445, 446
  444. Yonemoto N447
  445. Yoon S448
  446. Younis MZ449
  447. Yu C450, 451
  448. Zaidi Z452
  449. Zeeb H453
  450. Zhao Y455
  451. Zuhlke LJ456
Show Affiliations
Authors Affiliations
  1. 1. Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, United States
  2. 2. University of Washington, Seattle, WA, United States
  3. 3. University of Ottawa, Ottawa, ON, Canada
  4. 4. School of Social and Community Medicine, University of Bristol, Bristol, United Kingdom
  5. 5. Harvard T H Chan School of Public Health, United States
  6. 6. Department of Nutrition, T H Chan School of Public Health, United States
  7. 7. Channing Division of Network Medicine, Brigham & Women's Hospital, Harvard Medical School, United States
  8. 8. Harvard University, Boston, MA, United States
  9. 9. School of Public Health, United States
  10. 10. School of Population Health, New Zealand
  11. 11. The University of Queensland, Brisbane, QLD, Australia
  12. 12. Jimma University, Jimma, Ethiopia
  13. 13. Virginia Tech, Blacksburg, VA, United States
  14. 14. Aswan University Hospital, Aswan, Egypt
  15. 15. Department of Neurology, Cairo University, Cairo, Egypt
  16. 16. New York University Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates
  17. 17. School of Public Health, College of Health Sciences, Ethiopia
  18. 18. College of Health Sciences, Ethiopia
  19. 19. Mekelle University, Mekelle, Ethiopia
  20. 20. Kilte Awlaelo Health and Demographic Surveillance System, Mekelle, Ethiopia
  21. 21. University College London, London, United Kingdom
  22. 22. Infectious Disease Epidemiology Group, Weill Cornell Medical College in Qatar, Doha, Qatar
  23. 23. Institute of Community and Public Health, Birzeit University, Ramallah, Palestine
  24. 24. College of Medicine, Nigeria
  25. 25. Department of Sociology, Nigeria
  26. 26. University of Ibadan, Ibadan, Nigeria
  27. 27. University College Hospital, Ibadan, Nigeria
  28. 28. Olabisi Onabanjo University, Ago-Iwoye, Nigeria
  29. 29. Public Health Promotion Alliance, Osogbo, Nigeria
  30. 30. Kwame Nkrumah University of Science and Technology, Kumasi, Ghana
  31. 31. Association Ivoirienne pour le Bien-Etre Familial, Abidjan, Cote d'Ivoire
  32. 32. University of Pittsburgh Medical Center, McKeesport, PA, United States
  33. 33. Department of Epidemiology, United States
  34. 34. University of Alabama at Birmingham, Birmingham, AL, United States
  35. 35. Hospital for Sick Children, Toronto, ON, Canada
  36. 36. University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Iraq
  37. 37. Baghdad College of Medicine, Baghdad, Iraq
  38. 38. Washington University in Saint Louis, St Louis, MO, United States
  39. 39. Murdoch Childrens Research Institute, Melbourne, VIC, Australia
  40. 40. General Practice and Primary Health Care Academic Centre, Australia
  41. 41. Departments of Medicine and the Florey, Australia
  42. 42. Melbourne School of Population and Global Health, Australia
  43. 43. The University of Melbourne, Melbourne, VIC, Australia
  44. 44. Sydney School of Public Health, Australia
  45. 45. The University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW, Australia
  46. 46. Queensland Health, Herston, QLD, Australia
  47. 47. Malaria and Other Parasitic Diseases Division, Rwanda
  48. 48. Ministry of Health, Al Khuwair, Oman
  49. 49. King Saud University, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
  50. 50. Department of Anesthesiology, United States
  51. 51. King Fahad Medical City, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
  52. 52. Department of Preventive and Social Medicine, New Zealand
  53. 53. School of Medicine, United States
  54. 54. University of the Republic, Montevideo, Uruguay
  55. 55. Debre Markos University, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
  56. 56. NIHR Musculoskeletal Biomedical Research Centre, United Kingdom
  57. 57. Nuffield Department of Medicine, United Kingdom
  58. 58. Department of Zoology, United Kingdom
  59. 59. University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
  60. 60. Luxembourg Institute of Health, Strassen, Luxembourg
  61. 61. School of Public Health, University of Lorraine, Nancy, France
  62. 62. Ministry of Health, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
  63. 63. Charite Universitatsmedizin, Berlin, Germany
  64. 64. Madrid, Spain
  65. 65. Universidad de Cartagena, Cartagena de Indias, Colombia
  66. 66. Department of Psychiatry, University Medical Center Groningen, Netherlands
  67. 67. University of Groningen, Groningen, Netherlands
  68. 68. College of Medicine and Health Sciences, Bahir Dar University, Bahir Dar, Ethiopia
  69. 69. Discipline of Psychiatry, School of Medicine, Australia
  70. 70. University of Adelaide, Adelaide, SA, Australia
  71. 71. Dignitas International, Zomba, Malawi
  72. 72. University of Cape Coast, Cape Coast, Ghana
  73. 73. Ministry of Public Health, Beirut, Lebanon
  74. 74. Oregon Health & Science University, Portland, OR, United States
  75. 75. Department of Health Policy and Administration, College of Public Health, University of the Philippines Manila, Manila, Philippines
  76. 76. Kabul, Afghanistan
  77. 77. Department of Medical Sciences, Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden
  78. 78. Dalarna University, Falun, Sweden
  79. 79. Windsor, ON, Canada
  80. 80. Department of Medical Emergency, School of Paramedic, Qom University of Medical Sciences, Qom, Iran
  81. 81. South Asian Public Health Forum, Islamabad, Pakistan
  82. 82. Mashhad University of Medical Sciences, Mashhad, Iran
  83. 83. Graduate Institute of Biomedical Informatics, Taipei Medical University, Taipei, Taiwan
  84. 84. Wellness, Human Services and Gender Relations, Ministry of Health, Castries, Saint Lucia
  85. 85. Africare Benin, Cotonou, Benin
  86. 86. LERAS Afrique, Parakou, Benin
  87. 87. Sanjay Gandhi Postgraduate Institute of Medical Sciences, Lucknow, India
  88. 88. The Judith Lumley Centre for Mother, Infant and Family Health Research, La Trobe University, Melbourne, VIC, Australia
  89. 89. Peruvian National Institute of Health, Lima, Peru
  90. 90. School of Health Sciences, University of Management and Technology, Lahore, Pakistan
  91. 91. Public Health Agency of Canada, Toronto, ON, Canada
  92. 92. Faculty of Medicine, University of Belgrade, Belgrade, Serbia
  93. 93. Somkhele, Mtubatuba, South Africa
  94. 94. School of Health Sciences, University of Canterbury, Christchurch, New Zealand
  95. 95. Jhpiego-Ethiopia, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
  96. 96. Charles R. Drew University of Medicine and Science, Los Angeles, CA, United States
  97. 97. University of Oxford, Ho Hi Minh City, United Kingdom
  98. 98. College of Public Health and Tropical Medicine, Jazan, Saudi Arabia
  99. 99. Internal Medicine Department, United States
  100. 100. University of Sao Paulo, Sao Paulo, Brazil
  101. 101. Haramaya University, Harar, Ethiopia
  102. 102. Medical Center, United Kingdom
  103. 103. Aga Khan University, Karachi, Pakistan
  104. 104. The Hospital for Sick Children, Toronto, ON, Canada
  105. 105. Independent Public Health Consultants, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
  106. 106. Department of Nephrology Issues of Transplanted Kidney, Academician V I Shumakov Federal Research Center of Transplantology and Artifi cial Organs, Moscow, Russian Federation
  107. 107. GBS-CIDP International Foundation, Menemen, Turkey
  108. 108. Danube-University Krems, Krems, Austria
  109. 109. Faculty of Health Sciences and Social Work, Slovakia
  110. 110. Faculty of Health Sciences and Social Work, Department of Public Health, Slovakia
  111. 111. Trnava University, Trnava, Slovakia
  112. 112. International Neurotrama Research Organization, Vienna, Austria
  113. 113. The Ohio State University, Columbus, OH, United States
  114. 114. University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ, United States
  115. 115. Great Ormond Street Hospital for Children, London, United Kingdom
  116. 116. Al Shifa Trust Eye Hospital, Rawalpindi, Pakistan
  117. 117. National Institute of Public Health, Cuernavaca, Mexico
  118. 118. Universidad Autonoma Metropolitana, Mexico City, Mexico
  119. 119. Department of Neurobiology, Care Sciences and Society, Sweden
  120. 120. Aging Research Center, Sweden
  121. 121. Department of Medical Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Sweden
  122. 122. Karolinska Institute, Stockholm, Sweden
  123. 123. Colombian National Health Observatory, Instituto Nacional de Salud, Bogota DC, Colombia
  124. 124. Epidemiology and Public Health Evaluation Group, Public Health Department, Universidad Nacional de Colombia, Bogota, Colombia
  125. 125. Caja Costarricense de Seguro Social, San Jose, Costa Rica
  126. 126. Universidad de Costa Rica, San Pedro, Montes de Oca, Costa Rica
  127. 127. Department of Medicine, CIBERSAM, Spain
  128. 128. INCLIVA Health Research Institute, University of Valencia Valencia, Spain
  129. 129. Clinical Epidemiology Program, Ottawa Hospital Research Institute, Ottawa, ON, Canada
  130. 130. National Health Research Institutes, Zhunan Town, Taiwan
  131. 131. National Yang-Ming University, Taipei, Taiwan
  132. 132. College of Medicine, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan
  133. 133. World Health Organization, New Delhi, India
  134. 134. Cancer Institute, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences, Beijing, China
  135. 135. Malaria Control and Elimination Partnership in Africa, PATH, Lusaka, Zambia
  136. 136. University of Zambia, Lusaka, Zambia
  137. 137. University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa
  138. 138. Seoul National University Hospital, South Korea
  139. 139. Seoul National University, Seoul, South Korea
  140. 140. Seoul National University Medical Library, Seoul, South Korea
  141. 141. Christian Medical College, Vellore, India
  142. 142. MRC Lifecourse Epidemiology Unit, University of Southampton, Southampton, United Kingdom
  143. 143. NIHR Biomedical Research Centre, University of Southampton and University Hospital Southampton NHS Foundation Trust, Southampton, United Kingdom
  144. 144. Health Systems and Policy Research Unit, Nigeria
  145. 145. Ahmadu Bello University, Zaria, Nigeria
  146. 146. Wolaita Sodo University, Wolaita Sodo, Ethiopia
  147. 147. Addis Ababa University, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
  148. 148. Centre for Control of Chronic Conditions, India
  149. 149. Public Health Foundation of India, New Delhi, India
  150. 150. Instituto de Engenharia Biomedica, Portugal
  151. 151. Instituto de Investigacao e Inovacao em Saude, Portugal
  152. 152. REQUIMTE/LAQV, Laboratorio de Farmacognosia, Departamento de Quimica, Faculdade de Farmacia, Portugal
  153. 153. University of Porto, Porto, Portugal
  154. 154. National Institute for Occupational Health, National Health Laboratory Service, Johannesburg, South Africa
  155. 155. Griffith University, Brisbane, QLD, Australia
  156. 156. National Drug and Alcohol Research Centre, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, Australia
  157. 157. University of Colorado School of Medicine and the Colorado School of Public Health, Aurora, CO, United States
  158. 158. Brighton and Sussex Medical School, Brighton, United Kingdom
  159. 159. KEMRI-Wellcome Trust Research Programme, Kilifi, Kenya
  160. 160. Mount Sinai Beth Israel, New York, NY, United States
  161. 161. Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai, New York City, NY, United States
  162. 162. Department of Community Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, University of Peradeniya, Peradeniya, Sri Lanka
  163. 163. University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA, United States
  164. 164. Australian National University, Canberra, ACT, Australia
  165. 165. RMIT University, Bundoora, VIC, Australia
  166. 166. International Institute for Population Sciences, Mumbai, India
  167. 167. Food Science Department, Faculty of Agriculture, University of Tripoli, Tripoli, Libya
  168. 168. Eijkman-Oxford Clinical Research Unit, Jakarta, Indonesia
  169. 169. Arba Minch University, Arba Minch, Ethiopia
  170. 170. The Institute of Social and Economic Studies of Population, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russian Federation
  171. 171. Federal Research Institute for Health Organization and Informatics, Ministry of Health of the Russian Federation, Moscow, Russian Federation
  172. 172. Ministry of Health and Medical Education, Tehran, Iran
  173. 173. Arak University of Medical Sciences, Arak, Iran
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  216. 216. School of Public Health, Sun Yat-Sen University, Guangzhou, China
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  218. 218. Research and Development Unit, Spain
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  240. 240. University of Kragujevac Faculty of Medical Sciences, Kragujevac, Serbia
  241. 241. University of Aberdeen, Aberdeen, United Kingdom
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  243. 243. Institute of Violence and Injury Prevention, Colombo, Sri Lanka
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  246. 246. Department of Health Development, Institute of Industrial Ecological Sciences, Department of Environmental Epidemiology, University of Occupational and Environmental Health, Kitakyushu, Japan
  247. 247. Addis Ababa University, Debre Zeit, Ethiopia
  248. 248. Department of Ophthalmology, Medical Faculty Mannheim, Ruprecht-Karls-University Heidelberg, Mannheim, Germany
  249. 249. University College Cork, Cork, Ireland
  250. 250. CSIR-Indian Institute of Toxicology Research, Lucknow, India
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  261. 261. School of Continuing and Distance Education, Nairobi, Kenya
  262. 262. South African Medical Research Council, Cape Town, South Africa
  263. 263. Faculty of Health Sciences, Hatter Institute for Cardiovascular Research in Africa, South Africa
  264. 264. University of Cape Town, Cape Town, South Africa
  265. 265. Jordan University of Science and Technology, Irbid, Jordan
  266. 266. University of Louisville, Louisville, KY, United States
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  269. 269. Ball State University, Muncie, IN, United States
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  275. 275. Department of Demography and Public Health Research Institute, Canada
  276. 276. Department of Social and Preventive Medicine, School of Public Health, Canada
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  278. 278. Institute of Public Health, Hacettepe University, Ankara, Turkey
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  282. 282. Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, United States
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  288. 288. Children's Hospital of Michigan, Detroit, MI, United States
  289. 289. National Center for Chronic and Noncommunicable Disease Control and Prevention, China
  290. 290. Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China
  291. 291. Eastern Health Clinical School, Monash University, Fitzroy, VIC, Australia
  292. 292. Turning Point, Eastern Health, Melbourne, VIC, Australia
  293. 293. University of Bari, Bari, Italy
  294. 294. Aintree University Hospital National Health Service Foundation Trust, Liverpool, United Kingdom
  295. 295. School of Medicine, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, United Kingdom
  296. 296. Mansoura Faculty of Medicine, Mansoura, Egypt
  297. 297. Department of Public Health, University Medical Center, Austria
  298. 298. Erasmus University Rotterdam, Rotterdam, Netherlands
  299. 299. Iranian Ministry of Health, Tehran, Iran
  300. 300. JSS Medical College, JSS University, Mysore, India
  301. 301. Queen Mary University of London, London, United Kingdom
  302. 302. Hospital Universitario Doctor Peset, Valencia, Spain
  303. 303. University CEU-UCH, Moncada, Spain
  304. 304. University of the East Ramon Magsaysay Memorial Medical Center, Quezon City, Philippines
  305. 305. Department of Health Sciences, University of York, York, United Kingdom
  306. 306. Pereleman School of Medicine, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA, United States
  307. 307. Children's Hospital of Philadelphia, Philadelphia, PA, United States
  308. 308. Janakpuri Superspecialty Hospital, New Delhi, India
  309. 309. University of Gondar, Gondar, Ethiopia
  310. 310. University of West Florida, Pensacola, FL, United States
  311. 311. Saudi Ministry of Health, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
  312. 312. College of Medicine, Alfaisal University, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
  313. 313. United Nations Population Fund, Lima, Peru
  314. 314. Department of Neurology, Helsinki University Central Hospital, Helsinki, Finland
  315. 315. Helsinki University Hospital, Comprehensive Cancer Center, Breast Surgery Unit, Helsinki, Finland
  316. 316. University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland
  317. 317. Ifakara Health Institute, Bagamoyo, Tanzania
  318. 318. Pacific Institute for Research & Evaluation, Calverton, MD, United States
  319. 319. Curtin University Centre for Population Health, Perth, WA, Australia
  320. 320. Hunger Action Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA, United States
  321. 321. University of Salahaddin, Erbil, Iraq
  322. 322. Institute of Public Health, Heidelberg University, Heidelberg, Germany
  323. 323. Institute for Maternal and Child Health, IRCCS Burlo Garofolo, Trieste, Italy
  324. 324. Department of Community Medicine, Gastrointestinal and Liver Disease Research Center, Iran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
  325. 325. National Center for Child Health and Development, Setagaya, Japan
  326. 326. Competence Center Mortality-Follow-Up of the German National Cohort, Germany
  327. 327. Federal Institute for Population Research, Wiesbaden, Germany
  328. 328. Bindura, Zimbabwe
  329. 329. Zimbabwe National Family Planning Council, Harare, Zimbabwe
  330. 330. International Centre for Diarrhoeal Disease Research (ICDDR), Bangladesh, Dhaka, Bangladesh
  331. 331. Azienda Ospedaliera Papa Giovanni XXIII, Bergamo, Italy
  332. 332. Suraj Eye Institute, Nagpur, India
  333. 333. School of Public Health, City University of New York, New York, NY, United States
  334. 334. Southern Illinois University, Springfield, IL, United States
  335. 335. Faculty of Medicine, Fez, Morocco
  336. 336. Ministry of Health and Social Welfare, Dar es Salaam, Tanzania
  337. 337. East African Community Health Research Commission, Kigali, Rwanda
  338. 338. Institute for Global Health Innovations, Duy Tan University, Da Nang, Viet Nam
  339. 339. Department of Global Public Health and Primary Care, Norway
  340. 340. University of Bergen, Bergen, Norway
  341. 341. Institute of Health and Biomedical Innovation, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, QLD, Australia
  342. 342. Makerere University, Kampala, Uganda
  343. 343. Center for Research on Population and Health, Faculty of Health Sciences, American University of Beirut, Beirut, Lebanon
  344. 344. University of Western Sydney, Sydney, NSW, Australia
  345. 345. Department of Preventive Medicine, School of Medicine, Kyung Hee University, Seoul, South Korea
  346. 346. Center for Healthy Start Initiative, Ikoyi, Nigeria
  347. 347. Centre for Healthy Start Initiative, Lagos, Nigeria
  348. 348. Lira District Local Government, Lira Municipal Council, Uganda
  349. 349. National Research Institute for Child Health and Development, Tokyo, Japan
  350. 350. California Air Resources Board, Sacramento, CA, United States
  351. 351. Department of Social and Preventive Medicine, Samsung Biomedical Research Institute, School of Medicine, Sungkyunkwan University, Suwon, South Korea
  352. 352. School of Dental Sciences, Karad, India
  353. 353. Department of Community Health Sciences, University of Calgary, Calgary, AB, Canada
  354. 354. All India Institute of Medical Sciences, New Delhi, India
  355. 355. National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute, Bethesda, MD, United States
  356. 356. Centro Anna Maria Astori, IRCCS Mario Negri Institute for Pharmacological Research, Bergamo, Italy
  357. 357. Flinders University, Adelaide, SA, Australia
  358. 358. Health Metrics Unit, Gothenburg, Sweden
  359. 359. Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, Shanghai, China
  360. 360. Rollins School of Public Health, United States
  361. 361. Emory University, Atlanta, GA, United States
  362. 362. Durban University of Technology, Durban, South Africa
  363. 363. Section Exposure Assessment and Environmental Health Indicators Federal Environment Agency, Berlin, Germany
  364. 364. University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada
  365. 365. Department of Community Medicine, School of Medicine, Alborz University of Medical Sciences, Karaj, Iran
  366. 366. Contech International Health Consultants, Lahore, Pakistan
  367. 367. Contech School of Public Health, Lahore, Pakistan
  368. 368. Research and Evaluation Division, BRAC, Dhaka, Bangladesh
  369. 369. Hamad Medical Corporation, Doha, Qatar
  370. 370. Society for Health and Demographic Surveillance, Suri, India
  371. 371. ERAWEB Program, UMIT, Hall in Tirol, Austria
  372. 372. Diabetes Research Society, Hyderabad, India
  373. 373. Diabetes Research Center, Hyderabad, India
  374. 374. Centre for Research in Environmental Epidemiology, ISGlobal, Barcelona, Spain
  375. 375. Golestan Research Center of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Golestan University of Medical Sciences, Gorgan, Iran
  376. 376. Muhimbili University of Health and Allied Sciences, Dar es Salaam, Tanzania
  377. 377. Development Research and Projects Center, Abuja, Nigeria
  378. 378. Case Western Reserve University, Cleveland, OH, United States
  379. 379. Cancer Treatment Centers of America, RFU Chicago Medical School, North Chicago, IL, United States
  380. 380. Universidad Ciencias Aplicadas y Ambientales, Bogota DC, Colombia
  381. 381. University of KwaZulu-Natal, Durban, South Africa
  382. 382. Marshall University, Huntington, WV, United States
  383. 383. Hypertension in Africa Research Team, North-West University, Potchefstroom, South Africa
  384. 384. South African Medical Research Council, Potchefstroom, South Africa
  385. 385. Stellenbosch University, Cape Town, South Africa
  386. 386. Independent Consultant, Karachi, Pakistan
  387. 387. Indian Institute of Technology Ropar, Roopnagar, India
  388. 388. Research Institute at Nationwide Children's Hospital, Columbus, OH, United States
  389. 389. The Ohio State University College of Medicine, Columbus, OH, United States
  390. 390. Health Canada, Ottawa, ON, Canada
  391. 391. Reykjavik University, Reykjavik, Iceland
  392. 392. Federal University of Santa Catarina, Florianopolis, Brazil
  393. 393. Brasilia University, Brasilia, Brazil
  394. 394. Department of Medicine, Institute of Medical Sciences, Banaras Hindu University, Varanasi, India
  395. 395. Institute for Human Development, New Delhi, India
  396. 396. Norwegian Institute of Public Health, Oslo, Norway
  397. 397. Dartmouth College, Lebanon, NH, United States
  398. 398. Instituto de Investigacion Hospital Universitario de la Princesa, Universidad Autonoma de Madrid, Catedra UAM-Linde, Palma de Mallorca, Spain
  399. 399. Ministry of Health, Nairobi, Kenya
  400. 400. Department of Community Medicine, International Medical University, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia
  401. 401. Attikon University Hospital, Athens, Greece
  402. 402. University of East Anglia, Norwich, United Kingdom
  403. 403. Public Health England, London, United Kingdom
  404. 404. National Institute for Research in Tuberculosis, Chennai, India
  405. 405. Departments of Criminology, Law & Society, Sociology and Public Health, University of California-Irvine, Irvine, CA, United States
  406. 406. Ministry of Health, MINSANTE, Yaounde, Cameroon
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  409. 409. James Cook University, Cairns, QLD, Australia
  410. 410. Department of Anesthesiology, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA, United States
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  413. 413. Victoria, BC, Canada
  414. 414. WorldFish, Penang, Malaysia
  415. 415. National Center for Child Health and Development, Tokyo, Japan
  416. 416. Institute of Public Health, Jagiellonian University, Krakow, Poland
  417. 417. Casimir the Great Foundation of Innovation and Development, Krakow, Poland
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  419. 419. University of Tennessee Health Science Center, Memphis, TN, United States
  420. 420. St Jude Children's Research Hospital, Memphis, TN, United States
  421. 421. Hanoi Medical University, Hanoi, Viet Nam
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  423. 423. University Heart Center of Hamburg, Hamburg, Germany
  424. 424. Department of Internal Medicine, Federal Teaching Hospital, Abakaliki, Nigeria
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  426. 426. Warwick Medical School, University of Warwick, Coventry, United Kingdom
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  434. 434. Royal Children's Hospital, Melbourne, VIC, Australia
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  442. 442. Department of Preventive Medicine, Northwestern University, Chicago, IL, United States
  443. 443. Ophthalmic Research Center, Tehran, Iran
  444. 444. University of Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
  445. 445. Social Work and Social Administration Department, University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, Hong Kong
  446. 446. The Hong Kong Jockey Club Centre for Suicide Research and Prevention, University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, Hong Kong
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  448. 448. Department of Preventive Medicine, College of Medicine, Korea University, Seoul, South Korea
  449. 449. Jackson State University, Jackson, MS, United States
  450. 450. Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Wuhan University, Wuhan, China
  451. 451. Global Health Institute, Wuhan University, Wuhan, China
  452. 452. University Hospital, Setif, Algeria
  453. 453. Leibniz Institute for Prevention Research and Epidemiology, Bremen, Germany
  454. 454. Shanghai Institute of Kidney Disease and Dialysis, Shanghai, China
  455. 455. Chongqing Medical University, Chongqing, China
  456. 456. Red Cross War Memorial Children's Hospital, Cape Town, South Africa

Source: The Lancet HIV Published:2016


Abstract

Background Timely assessment of the burden of HIV/AIDS is essential for policy setting and programme evaluation. In this report from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015 (GBD 2015), we provide national estimates of levels and trends of HIV/AIDS incidence, prevalence, coverage of antiretroviral therapy (ART), and mortality for 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2015. Methods For countries without high-quality vital registration data, we estimated prevalence and incidence with data from antenatal care clinics and population-based seroprevalence surveys, and with assumptions by age and sex on initial CD4 distribution at infection, CD4 progression rates (probability of progression from higher to lower CD4 cell-count category), on and off antiretroviral therapy (ART) mortality, and mortality from all other causes. Our estimation strategy links the GBD 2015 assessment of all-cause mortality and estimation of incidence and prevalence so that for each draw from the uncertainty distribution all assumptions used in each step are internally consistent. We estimated incidence, prevalence, and death with GBD versions of the Estimation and Projection Package (EPP) and Spectrum software originally developed by the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS). We used an open-source version of EPP and recoded Spectrum for speed, and used updated assumptions from systematic reviews of the literature and GBD demographic data. For countries with high-quality vital registration data, we developed the cohort incidence bias adjustment model to estimate HIV incidence and prevalence largely from the number of deaths caused by HIV recorded in cause-of-death statistics. We corrected these statistics for garbage coding and HIV misclassification. Findings Global HIV incidence reached its peak in 1997, at 3·3 million new infections (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 3·1–3·4 million). Annual incidence has stayed relatively constant at about 2·6 million per year (range 2·5–2·8 million) since 2005, after a period of fast decline between 1997 and 2005. The number of people living with HIV/AIDS has been steadily increasing and reached 38·8 million (95% UI 37·6–40·4 million) in 2015. At the same time, HIV/AIDS mortality has been declining at a steady pace, from a peak of 1·8 million deaths (95% UI 1·7–1·9 million) in 2005, to 1·2 million deaths (1·1–1·3 million) in 2015. We recorded substantial heterogeneity in the levels and trends of HIV/AIDS across countries. Although many countries have experienced decreases in HIV/AIDS mortality and in annual new infections, other countries have had slowdowns or increases in rates of change in annual new infections. Interpretation Scale-up of ART and prevention of mother-to-child transmission has been one of the great successes of global health in the past two decades. However, in the past decade, progress in reducing new infections has been slow, development assistance for health devoted to HIV has stagnated, and resources for health in low-income countries have grown slowly. Achievement of the new ambitious goals for HIV enshrined in Sustainable Development Goal 3 and the 90-90-90 UNAIDS targets will be challenging, and will need continued efforts from governments and international agencies in the next 15 years to end AIDS by 2030. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, and National Institute of Mental Health and National Institute on Aging, National Institutes of Health. © 2016 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY license
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