Machine Learning Approaches to Predict the Need For Intensive Care Unit Admission Among Iranian Covid-19 Patients Based on Icd-10: A Cross-Sectional Study Publisher



Karimi Z¹ ; Malak JS² ; Aghakhani A¹ ; Najafi MS³ ; Ariannejad H^{3, 4} ; Zeraati H¹ ; Yekaninejad MS¹ Show Affiliations
Source: Health Science Reports Published:2024

Abstract

Background & Aim: Timely identification of the patients requiring intensive care unit admission (ICU) could be life-saving. We aimed to compare different machine learning algorithms to predict the requirements for ICU admission in COVID-19 patients. Methods: We screened all patients with COVID-19 at six academic hospitals in Tehran comprising our study population. A total of 44,112 COVID-19 patients (≥18 years old) were included, among which 7722 patients were hospitalized. We used a Random Forest algorithm to select significant variables. Then, prediction models were developed using the Support Vector Machine, Naive Bayes, logistic regression, lightGBM, decision tree, and K-Nearest Neighbor algorithms. Sensitivity, specificity, accuracy, F1 score, and receiver operating characteristic-Area Under the Curve (AUC) were used to compare the prediction performance of different models. Results: Based on random Forest, the following predictors were selected: age, cardiac disease, cough, hypertension, diabetes, influenza & pneumonia, malignancy, and nervous system disease. Age was found to have the strongest association with ICU admission among COVID-19 patients. All six models achieved an AUC greater than 0.60. Naive Bayes achieved the best predictive performance (AUC = 0.71). Conclusion: Naive Bayes and lightGBM demonstrated promising results in predicting ICU admission needs in COVID-19 patients. Machine learning models could help quickly identify high-risk patients upon entry and reduce mortality and morbidity among COVID-19 patients. © 2024 The Author(s). Health Science Reports published by Wiley Periodicals LLC.