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Global, Regional, and National Burden of Diabetes From 1990 to 2021, With Projections of Prevalence to 2050: A Systematic Analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 Publisher Pubmed



Ong KL1 ; Stafford LK1 ; Mclaughlin SA1 ; Boyko EJ2, 9, 40, 47, 176, 769 ; Vollset SE1, 3 ; Smith AE1 ; Dalton BE1 ; Duprey J1 ; Cruz JA1 ; Hagins H1 ; Lindstedt PA1 ; Aali A10, 58, 108, 346, 431, 645, 714 ; Abate YH19 ; Abate MD20 Show All Authors
Authors
  1. Ong KL1
  2. Stafford LK1
  3. Mclaughlin SA1
  4. Boyko EJ2, 9, 40, 47, 176, 769
  5. Vollset SE1, 3
  6. Smith AE1
  7. Dalton BE1
  8. Duprey J1
  9. Cruz JA1
  10. Hagins H1
  11. Lindstedt PA1
  12. Aali A10, 58, 108, 346, 431, 645, 714
  13. Abate YH19
  14. Abate MD20
  15. Abbasian M21, 32
  16. Abbasikangevari Z33, 45
  17. Abbasikangevari M45
  18. Elhafeez SA69, 499
  19. Abdrabu R71
  20. Abdulah DM73
  21. Abdullah AYM74
  22. Abedi V76, 77
  23. Abidi H78
  24. Aboagye RG80
  25. Abolhassani H46, 81
  26. Abugharbieh E82
  27. Abuzaid A89, 91
  28. Adane TD92, 96
  29. Adane DE92, 96
  30. Addo IY99, 101
  31. Adegboye OA102
  32. Adekanmbi V104
  33. Adepoju AV106, 107
  34. Adnani QES10, 58, 108, 346, 431, 645, 714
  35. Afolabi RF111
  36. Agarwal G117, 706, 805
  37. Aghdam ZB118
  38. Agudelobotero M123
  39. Arriagada CEA126
  40. Agyemangduah W127
  41. Ahinkorah BO128, 140, 583
  42. Ahmad D130, 131
  43. Ahmad R132
  44. Ahmad S134
  45. Ahmad A135
  46. Ahmadi A34, 93, 135, 213, 310, 693
  47. Ahmadi K137, 208, 216, 552
  48. Ahmed A143, 144, 145, 146
  49. Ahmed A143, 144, 145, 146
  50. Ahmed LA147, 240, 453
  51. Ahmed SA150
  52. Ajami M35, 152
  53. Akinyemi RO112, 153
  54. Al Hamad H154, 155
  55. Al Hasan SMA156
  56. Alahdal TMA157
  57. Alalwan TA158
  58. Alaly Z159, 163
  59. Albataineh MT165
  60. Alcalderabanal JE169
  61. Alemi S173, 749
  62. Ali H151, 174
  63. Alinia T175
  64. Aljunid SM182, 183
  65. Almustanyir S90, 184
  66. Alraddadi RM185
  67. Alvisguzman N189, 191
  68. Amare F192
  69. Ameyaw EK194
  70. Amiri S195
  71. Amusa GA196, 197
  72. Andrei CL198
  73. Anjana RM202
  74. Ansar A203, 205
  75. Ansari G52, 119, 206
  76. Ansarimoghaddam A137, 208, 216, 552
  77. Anyasodor AE211
  78. Arabloo J212
  79. Aravkin AY1, 3, 4
  80. Areda D218, 219
  81. Arifin H220
  82. Arkew M221
  83. Armocida B222
  84. Arnlov J223, 224
  85. Artamonov AA225
  86. Arulappan J226
  87. Aruleba RT227
  88. Arumugam A83, 228
  89. Aryan Z22, 45
  90. Asemu MT97
  91. Asgharijafarabadi M229, 230
  92. Askari E235
  93. Asmelash D238
  94. Astellburt T245, 247
  95. Athar M250, 251
  96. Athari SS252, 551
  97. Atout MMW254
  98. Avilaburgos L611
  99. Awaisu A255
  100. Azadnajafabad S45
  101. Babamohamadi H260
  102. Badar M261, 565
  103. Badawi A262, 263, 891
  104. Badiye AD266
  105. Baghcheghi N267, 306, 326, 472
  106. Bagheri N130, 269
  107. Bagherieh S2, 40, 47, 176, 769
  108. Bah S133
  109. Bahadory S270, 271
  110. Bai R273
  111. Baig AA274
  112. Baltatu OC166
  113. Baradaran HR34, 93, 213, 277, 310, 693
  114. Barchitta M279, 565
  115. Bardhan M282, 565
  116. Barengo NC285
  117. Barnighausen TW23, 288
  118. Barone MTU289, 290
  119. Baroneadesi F291
  120. Barrow A292, 293, 891
  121. Bashiri H294, 295
  122. Basiru A298, 891
  123. Basu S24, 128, 140, 299, 583
  124. Basu S24, 128, 140, 299, 583
  125. Batiha AMM254
  126. Batra K300
  127. Bayih MT301
  128. Bayileyegn NS308
  129. Behnoush AH2, 40, 47, 176, 312, 769
  130. Bekele AB313
  131. Belete MA315
  132. Belgaumi UI318
  133. Belo L319, 320
  134. Bennett DA323
  135. Bensenor IM324
  136. Berhe K325
  137. Berhie AY302
  138. Bhaskar S328, 329
  139. Bhat AN330, 644
  140. Bhatti JS333
  141. Bikbov B334
  142. Bilal F335, 336
  143. Bintoro BS337, 338
  144. Bitaraf S340, 370
  145. Bitra VR342
  146. Bjegovicmikanovic V344, 345
  147. Bodolica V348
  148. Boloor A331, 891
  149. Brauer M1, 349, 565
  150. Brazosayavera J350
  151. Brenner H351
  152. Butt ZA75, 352
  153. Calina D353
  154. Campos LA276, 354
  155. Camposnonato IR170
  156. Cao Y50, 160, 161, 410, 807
  157. Cao C50, 160, 161, 410, 807
  158. Car J141, 355
  159. Carvalho M320, 356
  160. Castanedaorjuela CA357, 358
  161. Catalalopez F359, 360
  162. Cerin E361, 362
  163. Chadwick J363
  164. Chandrasekar EK364
  165. Chanie GS239
  166. Charan J366, 374, 437
  167. Chattu VK264, 368, 696
  168. Chauhan K340, 370
  169. Cheema HA6, 63, 233, 372, 373, 720, 890
  170. Abebe EC98
  171. Chen S288
  172. Cherbuin N151, 174, 269, 409, 858
  173. Chichagi F48
  174. Chidambaram SB366, 374, 375, 437
  175. Cho WCS376
  176. Choudhari SG377
  177. Chowdhury R286, 378
  178. Chowdhury EK231, 379
  179. Chu DT380
  180. Chukwu IS381
  181. Chung SC304, 382, 387
  182. Coberly K1
  183. Columbus A207
  184. Contreras D124
  185. Cousin E1, 3
  186. Criqui MH388
  187. Cruzmartins N321, 389
  188. Cuschieri S391
  189. Dabo B392, 394
  190. Dadras O395, 396
  191. Dai X1, 3
  192. Damasceno AAM397
  193. Dandona R1, 3, 399
  194. Dandona L284
  195. Das S400
  196. Dascalu AM199, 401
  197. Dash NR82
  198. Dashti M52, 119, 206, 207
  199. Davilacervantes CA402
  200. De La Cruzgongora V171
  201. Debele GR403
  202. Delpasand K404, 405
  203. Demisse FW314
  204. Demissie GD147, 240, 453
  205. Deng X409
  206. Denovagutierrez E172
  207. Deo SV50, 160, 410, 414, 807
  208. Dervisevic E416, 418
  209. Desai HD419
  210. Desale AT97
  211. Dessie AM317
  212. Desta F420
  213. Dewan SMR421, 422
  214. Dey S340, 370
  215. Dhama K423
  216. Dhimal M207, 424
  217. Diao N25, 316
  218. Diaz D125, 427
  219. Dinu M207, 428
  220. Diress M207, 241
  221. Djalalinia S429
  222. Doan LP10, 58, 108, 346, 430, 431, 645, 714
  223. Dongarwar D434
  224. Dos Santos Figueiredo FW435
  225. Duncan BB436
  226. Dutta S366, 374, 437
  227. Dziedzic AM439
  228. Edinur HA440
  229. Ekholuenetale M111, 113, 679
  230. Ekundayo TC442
  231. Elgendy IY26, 443
  232. Elhadi M445
  233. Elhuneidi W84
  234. Elmeligy OAA70, 186
  235. Elmonem MA446
  236. Endeshaw D303
  237. Esayas HL314
  238. Eshetu HB242
  239. Etaee F447
  240. Fadhil I448, 707
  241. Fagbamigbe AF111, 278
  242. Fahim A275
  243. Falahi S449
  244. Faris MEM85
  245. Farrokhpour H2, 40, 47, 49, 176, 309, 769
  246. Farzadfar F45
  247. Fatehizadeh A177
  248. Fazli G265, 450
  249. Feng X100, 451
  250. Ferede TY452
  251. Fischer F147, 240, 453
  252. Flood D455, 456
  253. Forouhari A178, 179
  254. Foroumadi R49, 50, 160, 309, 410, 807
  255. Koudehi MF457
  256. Gaidhane AM377
  257. Gaihre S278
  258. Gaipov A460
  259. Galali Y461, 462
  260. Ganesan B463, 464
  261. Garciagordillo MA465
  262. Gautam RK467
  263. Gebrehiwot M25, 316
  264. Gebrekidan KG267, 306, 326, 472
  265. Gebremeskel TG468, 471
  266. Getacher L474
  267. Ghadirian F36
  268. Ghamari SH33, 45
  269. Nour MG11
  270. Ghassemi F51
  271. Golechha M475
  272. Goleij P476
  273. Golinelli D477
  274. Gopalani SV478, 479
  275. Guadie HA304, 382
  276. Guan SY480
  277. Gudayu TW243
  278. Guimaraes RA481
  279. Guled RA482
  280. Gupta R483, 484
  281. Gupta K485
  282. Gupta VB486
  283. Gupta VK487
  284. Gyawali B489
  285. Haddadi R490
  286. Hadi NR491
  287. Haile TG267, 306, 326, 472
  288. Hajibeygi R52, 119, 206
  289. Hajmirzaian A37, 444
  290. Halwani R82, 86, 115, 631
  291. Hamidi S492
  292. Hankey GJ493, 495
  293. Hannan MA496, 497
  294. Haque S498
  295. Harandi H2, 40, 47, 53, 176, 769
  296. Harlianto NI501, 502
  297. Mahmudul Hasan SM503, 504, 505, 506
  298. Hasan SS503, 504, 505, 506
  299. Hasani H507
  300. Hassanipour S406, 407
  301. Hassen MB1
  302. Haubold J511, 512
  303. Hayat K513, 514
  304. Heidari G138, 515
  305. Heidari M138, 515
  306. Hessami K27, 516
  307. Hiraike Y520
  308. Holla R256
  309. Hossain S383, 521
  310. Hossain MS383, 521
  311. Hosseini MS120
  312. Hosseinzadeh M245, 432, 522
  313. Hosseinzadeh H245, 432, 522
  314. Huang J523
  315. Huda MN524, 525
  316. Hussain S526, 527
  317. Huynh HH528
  318. Hwang BF529, 530
  319. Ibitoye SE114
  320. Ikeda N531
  321. Ilic IM10, 58, 108, 346, 431, 532, 645, 714
  322. Ilic MD10, 58, 108, 346, 431, 532, 645, 714
  323. Inbaraj LR533
  324. Iqbal A534
  325. Islam SMS232, 248, 536
  326. Islam RM232, 248, 536
  327. Ismail NE537, 538
  328. Iso H539
  329. Isola G280
  330. Itumalla R540, 888
  331. Iwagami M456, 485, 543, 544
  332. Iwu CCD546
  333. Iyamu IO349, 547
  334. Iyasu AN267, 306, 326, 472
  335. Jacob L548, 550
  336. Jafarzadeh A296
  337. Jahrami H554, 555
  338. Jain R556, 557
  339. Jaja C7, 558
  340. Jamalpoor Z458
  341. Jamshidi E38, 560
  342. Janakiraman B562
  343. Jayanna K564, 565
  344. Jayapal SK566
  345. Jayaram S567
  346. Jayawardena R568, 569
  347. Jebai R287
  348. Jeong W570
  349. Jin Y571
  350. Jokar M574
  351. Jonas JB577, 578
  352. Joseph N332, 579
  353. Joseph A332, 579
  354. Joshua CE581
  355. Joukar F406, 407
  356. Jozwiak JJ582
  357. Kaambwa B469, 470, 855
  358. Kabir A214
  359. Kabthymer RH128, 140, 583
  360. Kadashetti V585
  361. Kahe F28
  362. Kalhor R586, 587
  363. Kandel H249, 589
  364. Karanth SD590
  365. Karaye IM591
  366. Karkhah S408
  367. Katoto PDMC7, 558, 592
  368. Kaur N593
  369. Kazemian S54, 55
  370. Kebede SA595
  371. Khader YS596
  372. Khajuria H597
  373. Khalaji A2, 40, 47, 176, 312, 769
  374. Khan MAB148, 599
  375. Khan M69, 499
  376. Khan A600
  377. Khanal S601
  378. Khatatbeh MM602
  379. Khater AM603
  380. Khateri S604
  381. Khorashadizadeh F605
  382. Khubchandani J606
  383. Kibret BG305
  384. Kim MS607
  385. Kimokoti RW608
  386. Kisa A609, 610
  387. Kivimaki M384
  388. Kolahi AA33
  389. Komaki S613
  390. Kompani F56
  391. Koohestani HR268
  392. Korzh O478, 614
  393. Kostev K615, 616
  394. Kothari N367
  395. Koyanagi A617, 618
  396. Krishan K619
  397. Krishnamoorthy Y620
  398. Defo BK621, 622
  399. Kuddus M541, 623
  400. Kuddus MA541, 623
  401. Kumar R542, 625, 864
  402. Kumar H542, 625, 864
  403. Kundu S626, 627
  404. Kurniasari MD628, 629
  405. Kuttikkattu A636
  406. Vecchia CL637
  407. Lallukka T612, 646
  408. Larijani B49, 309, 643, 647
  409. Larsson AO638, 639
  410. Latief K630, 640
  411. Lawal BK642
  412. Le TTT643, 646, 647
  413. Le TTB643, 646, 647
  414. Lee SWH145, 648
  415. Lee M105, 145, 648, 649, 650, 651, 652, 653, 655
  416. Lee WC105
  417. Lee PH649, 650
  418. Lee SW653
  419. Lee SW653
  420. Legesse SM509
  421. Lenzi J477
  422. Li Y654, 655
  423. Li MC654, 655
  424. Lim SS1, 3, 656, 657
  425. Lim LL1, 3, 656, 657
  426. Liu X204, 411, 658
  427. Liu C204, 411, 658, 659
  428. Lo CH659
  429. Lopes G660
  430. Lorkowski S661, 662
  431. Lozano R1, 3
  432. Lucchetti G663
  433. Maghazachi AA82
  434. Mahasha PW664
  435. Mahjoub S665, 666
  436. Mahmoud MA667
  437. Mahmoudi R588
  438. Mahmoudimanesh M297
  439. Mai AT668
  440. Majeed A141
  441. Sanaye PM253
  442. Makris KC669
  443. Malhotra K670
  444. Malik AA187, 274
  445. Malik I671
  446. Mallhi TH672
  447. Malta DC673
  448. Mamun AA674
  449. Mansouri B675
  450. Marateb HR677, 678
  451. Mardi P272
  452. Martini S113, 679, 682
  453. Martorell M683, 684
  454. Marzo RR685, 686
  455. Masoudi R57, 139
  456. Masoudi S57, 139
  457. Mathews E687
  458. Maugeri A281
  459. Mazzaglia G688
  460. Mekonnen T689
  461. Meshkat M180
  462. Mestrovic T1, 690
  463. Jonasson JM691
  464. Miazgowski T692
  465. Michalek IM34, 93, 213, 310, 693, 694
  466. Minh LHN86, 115, 631, 632
  467. Mini GK695, 698, 875
  468. Miranda JJ699, 700
  469. Mirfakhraie R39
  470. Mirrakhimov EM701, 702
  471. Mirzaaghazadehattari M52, 119, 206, 703
  472. Misganaw A3, 508
  473. Misgina KH34, 93, 213, 310, 693, 705
  474. Mishra M706
  475. Moazen B288, 707
  476. Mohamed NS708, 709
  477. Mohammadi E10, 58, 68, 108, 236, 346, 431, 645, 714
  478. Mohammadi M10, 58, 68, 108, 236, 346, 431, 645, 714
  479. Mohammadianhafshejani A137, 208, 216, 552
  480. Mohammadshahi M59
  481. Mohseni A52, 119, 206
  482. Mojiriforushani H710
  483. Mokdad AH1, 3
  484. Momtazmanesh S2, 40, 45, 47, 176, 769
  485. Monasta L711
  486. Moniruzzaman M712
  487. Mons U713
  488. Montazeri F2, 40, 45, 47, 176, 769
  489. Ghalibaf AM10, 58, 108, 346, 431, 645, 714
  490. Moradi Y217, 717
  491. Moradi M217, 717
  492. Sarabi MM237
  493. Morovatdar N12, 508, 606
  494. Morrison SD5
  495. Morze J718
  496. Mossialos E142, 719
  497. Mostafavi E6, 63, 233, 372, 720, 721, 890
  498. Mueller UO723, 724
  499. Mulita F725, 726, 727
  500. Mulita A725, 726, 727
  501. Murillozamora E728, 729
  502. Musa KI730
  503. Mwita JC343
  504. Nagaraju SP257
  505. Naghavi M1, 3, 72, 754
  506. Nainu F731
  507. Nair TS732
  508. Najmuldeen HHR733
  509. Nangia V734
  510. Nargus S274
  511. Naser AY735
  512. Nassereldine H1
  513. Natto ZS29, 188
  514. Nauman J149, 736
  515. Nayak BP597
  516. Ndejjo R737
  517. Negash H738
  518. Negoi RI200, 739
  519. Nguyen HTH10, 58, 108, 346, 431, 433, 645, 714
  520. Nguyen DH26, 393, 443
  521. Nguyen PT740
  522. Nguyen VT330, 644
  523. Nguyen HQ668
  524. Niazi RK741
  525. Nigatu YT742
  526. Ningrum DNA633, 743
  527. Nizam MA745
  528. Nnyanzi LA746
  529. Noreen M72, 747, 754
  530. Noubiap JJ748
  531. Nzoputam OJ750, 751, 752
  532. Nzoputam CI750, 751, 752
  533. Oancea B753
  534. Odogwu NM72, 754
  535. Odukoya OO755, 756
  536. Ojha VA757, 758
  537. Okatialiabad H209
  538. Okekunle AP86, 115, 631, 759
  539. Okonji OC760
  540. Okwute PG761, 762
  541. Olufadewa II113, 679, 763
  542. Onwujekwe OE764
  543. Ordak M765
  544. Ortiz A767, 768
  545. Osuagwu UL2, 40, 47, 176, 769, 771
  546. Oulhaj A167
  547. Owolabi MO116, 772
  548. Padronmonedero A359
  549. Padubidri JR773
  550. Palladino R141, 774
  551. Panagiotakos D624, 775, 776
  552. Pandajonas S777
  553. Pandey A399, 425, 778
  554. Pandey A399, 425, 778
  555. Pandiperumal SR369, 779
  556. Stoian AMP201
  557. Pardhan S780
  558. Parekh T438, 781
  559. Parekh U438, 781
  560. Pasovic M1
  561. Patel J782, 785
  562. Patel JR786, 787
  563. Paudel U426, 788
  564. Pepito VCF790
  565. Pereira M791
  566. Perico N792
  567. Perna S793
  568. Petcu IR794
  569. Petermannrocha FE415, 795
  570. Podder V749, 796
  571. Postma MJ94, 109
  572. Pourali G13, 14
  573. Pourtaheri N797
  574. Prates EJS673
  575. Qadir MMF611
  576. Qattea I412
  577. Raee P41, 60
  578. Rafique I798
  579. Rahimi M121
  580. Rahimifard M60
  581. Rahimimovaghar V61
  582. Rahman MO203, 258, 624, 799, 800, 801
  583. Rahman MA203, 258, 624, 799, 800, 801
  584. Rahman MHU203, 258, 624, 799, 800, 801
  585. Rahman M203, 258, 624, 799, 800, 801
  586. Rahman MM203, 258, 624, 799, 800, 801
  587. Rahmani M2, 40, 45, 47, 165, 168, 176, 769
  588. Rahmani S2, 40, 45, 47, 176, 769
  589. Rahmanian V802
  590. Rahmawaty S803
  591. Rahnavard N10, 58, 108, 346, 431, 645, 714
  592. Rajbhandari B789
  593. Ram P60, 62, 804
  594. Ramazanu S806
  595. Rana J809, 811
  596. Rancic N813, 814
  597. Ranjha MMAZ815
  598. Rao CR259
  599. Rapaka D816
  600. Rasali DP349, 817
  601. Rashedi S34, 62, 93, 213, 310, 693, 804, 818
  602. Rashedi V34, 62, 93, 213, 310, 693, 804, 818
  603. Rashid AM819
  604. Rashidi MM33, 45
  605. Ratan ZA246, 820
  606. Rawaf S141, 821
  607. Rawal L822
  608. Redwan EMM823, 824
  609. Remuzzi G792
  610. Rengasamy KRR368, 696, 825
  611. Renzaho AMN2, 40, 47, 176, 769, 770
  612. Reyes LF826, 827
  613. Rezaei N45, 46, 828
  614. Rezaei N45, 46, 828
  615. Rezaeian M137, 208, 216, 552
  616. Rezazadeh H181, 553
  617. Riahi SM715
  618. Rias YA634, 830
  619. Riaz M832
  620. Ribeiro D322, 833
  621. Rodrigues M834
  622. Rodriguez JAB835
  623. Roever L836
  624. Rohloff P30, 60, 837
  625. Roshandel G838
  626. Roustazadeh A576, 787
  627. Rwegerera GM343
  628. Saad AMA839
  629. Saberayad MM82, 840
  630. Sabour S34, 93, 213, 310, 693
  631. Sabzmakan L272
  632. Saddik B87
  633. Sadeghi E517
  634. Saeed U841, 842
  635. Moghaddam SS45
  636. Safi S42, 43, 843, 844
  637. Safi SZ42, 43, 843, 844
  638. Saghazadeh A46
  639. Sharifaskari NS82, 88
  640. Sharifaskari FS82, 88
  641. Sahebkar A15, 16
  642. Sahoo SS371, 845
  643. Sahoo H371, 845
  644. Saifurrahman KM535
  645. Sajid MR848
  646. Salahi S214, 849, 850
  647. Salahi S214, 849, 850
  648. Saleh MA86, 115, 631, 851
  649. Salehi MA6, 63, 233, 372, 720, 890
  650. Salomon JA580
  651. Sanabria J413, 853
  652. Sanjeev RK854
  653. Sanmarchi F477, 841
  654. Santricmilicevic MM10, 58, 108, 346, 347, 431, 645, 714
  655. Sarasmita MA635, 856
  656. Sargazi S210
  657. Sathian B154, 857
  658. Sathish T805
  659. Sawhney M521, 858
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  667. Seylani A866
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  670. Shafeghat M2, 40, 47, 176, 521, 769
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  678. Shashamo BB872
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  717. Temsah MH907
  718. Tesler R908
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  728. Trico D916
  729. Trihandini I641
  730. Tripathy JP917
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  733. Tualeka AR919
  734. Tufa DG920
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  737. Upadhyay E625
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Source: The Lancet Published:2023


Abstract

Background: Diabetes is one of the leading causes of death and disability worldwide, and affects people regardless of country, age group, or sex. Using the most recent evidentiary and analytical framework from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD), we produced location-specific, age-specific, and sex-specific estimates of diabetes prevalence and burden from 1990 to 2021, the proportion of type 1 and type 2 diabetes in 2021, the proportion of the type 2 diabetes burden attributable to selected risk factors, and projections of diabetes prevalence through 2050. Methods: Estimates of diabetes prevalence and burden were computed in 204 countries and territories, across 25 age groups, for males and females separately and combined; these estimates comprised lost years of healthy life, measured in disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs; defined as the sum of years of life lost [YLLs] and years lived with disability [YLDs]). We used the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm) approach to estimate deaths due to diabetes, incorporating 25 666 location-years of data from vital registration and verbal autopsy reports in separate total (including both type 1 and type 2 diabetes) and type-specific models. Other forms of diabetes, including gestational and monogenic diabetes, were not explicitly modelled. Total and type 1 diabetes prevalence was estimated by use of a Bayesian meta-regression modelling tool, DisMod-MR 2.1, to analyse 1527 location-years of data from the scientific literature, survey microdata, and insurance claims; type 2 diabetes estimates were computed by subtracting type 1 diabetes from total estimates. Mortality and prevalence estimates, along with standard life expectancy and disability weights, were used to calculate YLLs, YLDs, and DALYs. When appropriate, we extrapolated estimates to a hypothetical population with a standardised age structure to allow comparison in populations with different age structures. We used the comparative risk assessment framework to estimate the risk-attributable type 2 diabetes burden for 16 risk factors falling under risk categories including environmental and occupational factors, tobacco use, high alcohol use, high body-mass index (BMI), dietary factors, and low physical activity. Using a regression framework, we forecast type 1 and type 2 diabetes prevalence through 2050 with Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and high BMI as predictors, respectively. Findings: In 2021, there were 529 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 500–564) people living with diabetes worldwide, and the global age-standardised total diabetes prevalence was 6·1% (5·8–6·5). At the super-region level, the highest age-standardised rates were observed in north Africa and the Middle East (9·3% [8·7–9·9]) and, at the regional level, in Oceania (12·3% [11·5–13·0]). Nationally, Qatar had the world's highest age-specific prevalence of diabetes, at 76·1% (73·1–79·5) in individuals aged 75–79 years. Total diabetes prevalence—especially among older adults—primarily reflects type 2 diabetes, which in 2021 accounted for 96·0% (95·1–96·8) of diabetes cases and 95·4% (94·9–95·9) of diabetes DALYs worldwide. In 2021, 52·2% (25·5–71·8) of global type 2 diabetes DALYs were attributable to high BMI. The contribution of high BMI to type 2 diabetes DALYs rose by 24·3% (18·5–30·4) worldwide between 1990 and 2021. By 2050, more than 1·31 billion (1·22–1·39) people are projected to have diabetes, with expected age-standardised total diabetes prevalence rates greater than 10% in two super-regions: 16·8% (16·1–17·6) in north Africa and the Middle East and 11·3% (10·8–11·9) in Latin America and Caribbean. By 2050, 89 (43·6%) of 204 countries and territories will have an age-standardised rate greater than 10%. Interpretation: Diabetes remains a substantial public health issue. Type 2 diabetes, which makes up the bulk of diabetes cases, is largely preventable and, in some cases, potentially reversible if identified and managed early in the disease course. However, all evidence indicates that diabetes prevalence is increasing worldwide, primarily due to a rise in obesity caused by multiple factors. Preventing and controlling type 2 diabetes remains an ongoing challenge. It is essential to better understand disparities in risk factor profiles and diabetes burden across populations, to inform strategies to successfully control diabetes risk factors within the context of multiple and complex drivers. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2023 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license
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