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Spatial, Temporal, and Demographic Patterns in Prevalence of Smoking Tobacco Use and Attributable Disease Burden in 204 Countries and Territories, 1990A€“2019: A Systematic Analysis From the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 Publisher Pubmed



Reitsma MB1 ; Kendrick PJ1 ; Ababneh E5 ; Abbafati C9 ; Abbasikangevari M11 ; Abdoli A12 ; Abedi A13 ; Abhilash ES15 ; Abila DB16, 17 ; Aboyans V18, 19 ; Aburmeileh NM21 ; Adebayo OM22 ; Advani SM25, 26 ; Aghaali M27 Show All Authors
Authors
  1. Reitsma MB1
  2. Kendrick PJ1
  3. Ababneh E5
  4. Abbafati C9
  5. Abbasikangevari M11
  6. Abdoli A12
  7. Abedi A13
  8. Abhilash ES15
  9. Abila DB16, 17
  10. Aboyans V18, 19
  11. Aburmeileh NM21
  12. Adebayo OM22
  13. Advani SM25, 26
  14. Aghaali M27
  15. Ahinkorah BO28
  16. Ahmad S30
  17. Ahmadi K31
  18. Ahmed H32
  19. Aji B33
  20. Akunna CJ34
  21. Alaly Z35, 36
  22. Alanzi TM37
  23. Alhabib KF40
  24. Ali L42
  25. Alif SM44
  26. Alipour V47, 48
  27. Aljunid SM53, 54
  28. Alla F55
  29. Allebeck P56
  30. Alvisguzman N58, 59
  31. Amin TT60
  32. Amini S61
  33. Amu H64
  34. Ancuceanu R67
  35. Anderson JA1
  36. Ansarimoghaddam A69
  37. Antonio CAT70, 71
  38. Antony B72
  39. Anvari D73, 74
  40. Arabloo J47
  41. Arian ND1
  42. Arora M75
  43. Asaad M79
  44. Ausloos M80, 81
  45. Awan AT82, 83
  46. Ayano G84
  47. Aynalem GL85
  48. Azari S47
  49. Badiye AD93
  50. Baig AA94
  51. Bakhshaei MH96
  52. Banach M98, 99
  53. Banik PC101
  54. Barkercollo SL102
  55. Barnighausen TW103, 105
  56. Barqawi HJ109
  57. Basu S106
  58. Bayati M114
  59. Bazarganhejazi S117, 118
  60. Behzadifar M119
  61. Bekuma TT120
  62. Bennett DA121
  63. Bensenor IM122
  64. Berfield KSS2, 125
  65. Bhagavathula AS126, 127
  66. Bhardwaj N128
  67. Bhardwaj P129, 130
  68. Bhattacharyya K132, 133
  69. Bibi S134
  70. Bijani A135
  71. Bintoro BS136
  72. Biondi A137
  73. Birara S138
  74. Braithwaite D139, 141
  75. Brenner H142
  76. Brunoni AR122, 123
  77. Burkart K1, 3
  78. Butt ZA143, 144
  79. Caetano Dos Santos FL145
  80. Camera LA146, 147
  81. Car J112
  82. Cardenas R150
  83. Carreras G152
  84. Carrero JJ57
  85. Castaldellimaia JM123
  86. Cattaruzza MS10
  87. Chang JC153, 154
  88. Chen S103
  89. Cirillo M161
  90. Costa VM162
  91. Couto RAS163
  92. Dadras O165, 166
  93. Dai X1
  94. Damasceno AAM167
  95. Damiani G168, 169
  96. Dandona L1, 77, 171, 172
  97. Dandona R1, 3, 77
  98. Daneshpajouhnejad P174
  99. Darega Gela J177
  100. Davletov K178
  101. Derbew Molla M86
  102. Dessie GA179
  103. Desta AA87
  104. Dharmaratne SD1, 3, 181
  105. Dianatinasab M182
  106. Diaz D183, 184
  107. Do HT185
  108. Douiri A187
  109. Duncan BB188
  110. Duraes AR189, 190
  111. Eagan AW107
  112. Ebrahimi Kalan M192
  113. Edvardsson K193
  114. Elbarazi I127
  115. El Tantawi M194
  116. Esmaeilnejad S195, 196
  117. Fadhil I197
  118. Farwati M6, 200
  119. Farzadfar F201
  120. Fazlzadeh M206
  121. Feigin VL1, 208, 210
  122. Feldman R1
  123. Fernandez Prendes C211, 212
  124. Ferrara P214
  125. Filip I215, 216
  126. Filippidis F111
  127. Fischer F217
  128. Flor LS218, 219, 220
  129. Foigt NA221
  130. Folayan MO222
  131. Foroutan M222, 223
  132. Gad MM7, 222, 224
  133. Gaidhane AM222, 225
  134. Gallus S226
  135. Geberemariyam BS227
  136. Ghafourifard M228
  137. Ghajar A234
  138. Ghashghaee A47, 49
  139. Giampaoli S235
  140. Gill PS236
  141. Glozah FN237
  142. Gnedovskaya EV209
  143. Golechha M238
  144. Gopalani SV240
  145. Gorini G151
  146. Goudarzi H241
  147. Goulart AC122, 124
  148. Greaves F112, 243
  149. Guha A170
  150. Guo Y45
  151. Gupta B246
  152. Gupta R249
  153. Gupta T252
  154. Gupta V1
  155. Hafezinejad N203, 253
  156. Hamadeh RR256
  157. Hankey GJ257, 258
  158. Hartono RK261
  159. Hassankhani H229, 262, 263
  160. Hay SI1, 3
  161. Heidari G264
  162. Herteliu C81, 265
  163. Hezam K266, 267
  164. Hird TR268
  165. Hole MK269
  166. Holla R90, 536
  167. Hosseinzadeh M47
  168. Hostiuc S68, 270
  169. Househ M271
  170. Hsiao T1
  171. Huang J272
  172. Iannucci VC1
  173. Ibitoye SE273
  174. Idrisov B274, 275
  175. Ilesanmi OS23
  176. Ilic IM276
  177. Ilic MD278
  178. Inbaraj LR280
  179. Islam JY62
  180. Islam RM45
  181. Islam SMS281, 282
  182. Islami F285
  183. Iso H286
  184. Itumalla R287
  185. Iwagami M288, 290
  186. Jaafari J292
  187. Jain V8
  188. Jakovljevic M279, 293
  189. Janjani H202, 301
  190. Jayaram S86
  191. Jeemon P302
  192. Jha RP303, 304
  193. Jonas JB104, 305
  194. Joo T306
  195. Jarisson M307
  196. Kabir A50
  197. Kabir Z308
  198. Kalankesh LR230
  199. Kanchan T92
  200. Kandel H283, 309
  201. Kapoor N93
  202. Karimi SE207
  203. Katikireddi SV310
  204. Kebede HK311
  205. Kelkay B88
  206. Kennedy RD312
  207. Khoja AT53, 161
  208. Khubchandani J313
  209. Kimokoti RW317
  210. Kivimaki M157, 318
  211. Kosen S320
  212. Koulmane Laxminarayana SL321
  213. Koyanagi A322, 323, 486
  214. Krishan K324
  215. Kugbey N325, 326
  216. Kumar N23
  217. Kurmi OP327, 328
  218. Kusuma D113, 330
  219. Lacey B121, 331
  220. Lam JO332
  221. Landires I333, 334, 335
  222. Lasrado S336
  223. Lauriola P337
  224. Lee DW161
  225. Leung J339
  226. Li S46
  227. Lin H340
  228. Linn S341
  229. Liu W342
  230. Lopez AD1, 3, 343
  231. Lopukhov PD346
  232. Lorkowski S348, 349
  233. Lugo A226
  234. Majeed A112
  235. Maleki A202, 350
  236. Malekzadeh R115, 204
  237. Malta DC351
  238. Mamun AA352
  239. Manjunatha N353
  240. Mansouri B295
  241. Mansournia MA89
  242. Martinezraga J354, 355
  243. Martini S260, 356, 357
  244. Mathur MR76
  245. Medinasolas CE359
  246. Mehata S360, 361
  247. Mendoza W362
  248. Menezes RG38
  249. Meretoja A344, 363
  250. Meretoja TJ319, 364
  251. Miazgowski B365, 366
  252. Michalek IM367
  253. Miller TR84, 368
  254. Mirrakhimov EM369, 370
  255. Mirzaei H371
  256. Mirzaeialavijeh M296
  257. Misra S131
  258. Moghadaszadeh M231, 232
  259. Mohammad Y6
  260. Mohammadianhafshejani A372
  261. Mohammed S103
  262. Mokdad AH1, 3
  263. Monasta L374
  264. Moni MA375
  265. Moradi G89, 207
  266. Moradilakeh M51
  267. Moradzadeh R62
  268. Morrison SD378
  269. Mossie TB123
  270. Mubarik S379
  271. Mullany EC1
  272. Murray CJL1
  273. Naghavi M1, 3
  274. Naghshtabrizi B97
  275. Nair S380
  276. Nalini M204, 297
  277. Nangia V383
  278. Narasimha Swamy S385
  279. Naveed M386
  280. Nayak S91
  281. Nayak VC92
  282. Nazari J63
  283. Nduaguba SO140
  284. Nguyen CT388
  285. Nguyen HLT388
  286. Nguyen SH389
  287. Nguyen TH389
  288. Nixon MR1
  289. Nnaji CA391, 392
  290. Norrving B394
  291. Noubiap JJ395
  292. Nowak C396
  293. Ogbo FA397
  294. Oguntade AS24, 158
  295. Olagunju AT329, 399
  296. Oren E4, 400
  297. Otstavnov N401
  298. Otstavnov SS401, 402
  299. Owolabi MO24
  300. Pakhale S404
  301. Pakshir K116
  302. Palladino R112, 161
  303. Pana A81, 405
  304. Pandajonas S104
  305. Pandey A406
  306. Parekh U408
  307. Pashazadeh Kan F52
  308. Patton GC63, 410
  309. Pawar S411
  310. Pestell RG412, 413
  311. Pinheiro M164
  312. Piradov MA210
  313. Pirouzpanah S233
  314. Pokhrel KN414
  315. Polibin RV347
  316. Prashant A415
  317. Pribadi DRA416
  318. Radfar A417
  319. Rahimimovaghar V205
  320. Rahman A418
  321. Rahmani AM422, 423
  322. Rajai N8
  323. Ram P424
  324. Ranabhat CL425, 426
  325. Rathi P90
  326. Rawal L427
  327. Renzaho AMN428, 429
  328. Reynalesshigematsu LM430
  329. Rezapour A47
  330. Riahi SM431
  331. Roever L432
  332. Ronfani L374
  333. Roshandel G433
  334. Roy A434
  335. Roy B435
  336. Sacco S436
  337. Saddik B110
  338. Sahebkar A231, 437
  339. Salehi S14
  340. Salimzadeh H204
  341. Samaei M438
  342. Samy AM439
  343. Santos IS122
  344. Santricmilicevic MM276, 277
  345. Sarrafzadegan N175, 441
  346. Sathian B442, 443
  347. Sawhney M444
  348. Saylan M445
  349. Schaub MP446
  350. Schmidt MI188
  351. Schneider IJC447
  352. Schutte AE376, 448, 449
  353. Schwendicke F450
  354. Senthil Kumar N453
  355. Sepanlou SG115, 204
  356. Seylani A454
  357. Shafaat O176, 253
  358. Shah SM127, 455
  359. Shaikh MA456
  360. Shalash AS440
  361. Shannawaz M23
  362. Sharafi K298
  363. Sheikh A108, 458
  364. Sheikhbahaei S253
  365. Shigematsu M459, 460
  366. Shiri R461
  367. Shishani K462
  368. Shivakumar KM463
  369. Shivalli S291
  370. Shrestha R8
  371. Siabani S29, 299
  372. Sidemo NB464
  373. Sigfusdottir ID466, 467
  374. Sigurvinsdottir R466
  375. Silva DAS468
  376. Silva JP162
  377. Singh A72
  378. Singh JA469, 470
  379. Singh V471
  380. Sinha DN472
  381. Sitas F284, 377
  382. Skryabin VY474
  383. Skryabina AA476
  384. Soboka M123
  385. Soriano JB477, 478
  386. Soroush A300
  387. Soshnikov S275, 479
  388. Soyiri IN480
  389. Spurlock EE1
  390. Sreeramareddy CT481
  391. Stein DJ390
  392. Steiropoulos P482
  393. Stortecky S483
  394. Straif K323, 484, 485, 486
  395. Suliankatchi Abdulkader R487, 488
  396. Sulo G489, 490
  397. Sundstram J213, 448, 449
  398. Tabuchi T491
  399. Tadakamadla SK492
  400. Taddele BW493
  401. Tadesse EG465
  402. Tamiru AT88
  403. Tareke M123
  404. Tareque MI494
  405. Tarigan IU495
  406. Temsah MH41
  407. Thankappan KR496
  408. Thapar R537
  409. Tichopad A497
  410. Tolani MA2
  411. Topouzis F498
  412. Tovanipalone MR160, 499, 500, 501
  413. Tran BX48
  414. Tripathy JP502
  415. Tsegaye GW180
  416. Tsilimparis N503
  417. Tymeson HD1
  418. Ullah S43
  419. Unim B504
  420. Updike RL1
  421. Vacante M137
  422. Valdez PR148, 505
  423. Vardavas C507
  424. Varona Parez P508
  425. Vasankari TJ509
  426. Venketasubramanian N510, 511
  427. Verma M512
  428. Vetrova MV513
  429. Vo B514
  430. Vu GT389
  431. Waheed Y515
  432. Wang Y187
  433. Welding K254
  434. Werdecker A516
  435. Whisnant JL1
  436. Wickramasinghe ND517
  437. Yamagishi K166, 289
  438. Yandrapalli S518, 519
  439. Yatsuya H520, 521
  440. Yazdifeyzabadi V522, 523
  441. Yeshaw Y89
  442. Yimmer MZ524
  443. Yonemoto N525, 526
  444. Yu C379
  445. Yunusa I105, 248
  446. Yusefzadeh H527
  447. Zahirian Moghadam T207
  448. Zaman MS528
  449. Zamanian M62
  450. Zandian H23, 207
  451. Zar HJ393, 529
  452. Zastrozhin MS475, 530
  453. Zastrozhina A531
  454. Zavalaarciniega L430
  455. Zhang J345, 532, 533
  456. Zhang ZJ203
  457. Zhong C272
  458. Gakidou E1, 3
  459. Anderson JA1
  460. Feldman R1
  461. Gupta V1
  462. Murray CJL1
  463. Gupta V1
  464. Murray CJL1
  465. Oren E4, 400
  466. Jain V8
  467. Menezes RG38
  468. Guo Y45
  469. Li S46
  470. Kumar N23
  471. Carrero JJ57
  472. Amini S61
  473. Amul GH65, 66
  474. Faraon EA70
  475. Singh A72
  476. Arora M75
  477. Mathur MR76
  478. Kumar G77
  479. Arora M75
  480. Ausloos M80, 81
  481. Herteliu C81, 265
  482. Aynalem GL85
  483. Derbew Molla M86
  484. Riaz Mcom MA95
  485. Chen S103
  486. Mohammed S103
  487. Basu S106
  488. Kusuma D113, 330
  489. Behzadifar M119
  490. Santos IS122
  491. Santos IS122
  492. Bhardwaj N128
  493. Misra S131
  494. Ullah S43
  495. Birara S138
  496. Basu S106
  497. Car J112
  498. Chu D155
  499. Chung S156
  500. Chung S156
  501. Cirillo M161
  502. Silva JP162
  503. Pinheiro M164
  504. Guha A170
  505. Tsegaye GW180
  506. Do HT185
  507. Do HT185
  508. Lee D315
  509. Schmidt MI188
  510. Eagan AW107
  511. Fadhil I197
  512. Farinha CSE198, 199
  513. Zahirian Moghadam T207
  514. Gnedovskaya EV209
  515. Fischer F217
  516. Naqvi A39, 384
  517. Moghadaszadeh M231, 232
  518. Pirouzpanah S233
  519. Gill PS236
  520. Gopalani SV240
  521. Goudarzi H241
  522. Guha A170
  523. Guo Y45
  524. Gupta B246
  525. Gupta R249
  526. Gupta R249
  527. Gupta R249
  528. Gupta T252
  529. Sheikhbahaei S253
  530. Welding K254
  531. Haider M255
  532. Hargono Dr A259
  533. Irvani SN262, 263
  534. Hird TR268
  535. Huang J272
  536. Zhong C272
  537. Iso H286
  538. Jang S294
  539. Mansouri B295
  540. Kennedy RD312
  541. Kim G314
  542. Park E314, 315, 409
  543. Naghshtabrizi B97
  544. Kim Y316
  545. Kosen S320
  546. Koyanagi A322, 323, 486
  547. Lam JO332
  548. Lee Y338
  549. Lin H340
  550. Liu W342
  551. Zhang J345, 532, 533
  552. Lopukhov PD346
  553. Mathur MR76
  554. Mohammed S103
  555. Schutte AE376, 448, 449
  556. Morrison SD378
  557. Yu C379
  558. Nair S380
  559. Nair S380
  560. Nair S380
  561. Neupane Kandel S387
  562. Nguyen CT388
  563. Nguyen HLT388
  564. Nguyen SH389
  565. Nguyen TH389
  566. Zar HJ393, 529
  567. Oh I398
  568. Otstavnov N401
  569. Pandey A406
  570. Pandey A406
  571. Parekh U408
  572. Pawar S411
  573. Rahman A418
  574. Rahman M419
  575. Rahman M419
  576. Rahman M419
  577. Roever L432
  578. Roy A434
  579. Roy B435
  580. Sacco S436
  581. Schneider IJC447
  582. Seidu Mphil A451, 452
  583. Sinha DN472
  584. Sinha DN472
  585. Vetrova MV513
  586. Waheed Y515
  587. Zaman MS528
  588. Zuniga YH534, 535

Source: The Lancet Published:2021


Abstract

Background: Ending the global tobacco epidemic is a defining challenge in global health. Timely and comprehensive estimates of the prevalence of smoking tobacco use and attributable disease burden are needed to guide tobacco control efforts nationally and globally. Methods: We estimated the prevalence of smoking tobacco use and attributable disease burden for 204 countries and territories, by age and sex, from 1990 to 2019 as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study. We modelled multiple smoking-related indicators from 3625 nationally representative surveys. We completed systematic reviews and did Bayesian meta-regressions for 36 causally linked health outcomes to estimate non-linear dose-response risk curves for current and former smokers. We used a direct estimation approach to estimate attributable burden, providing more comprehensive estimates of the health effects of smoking than previously available. Findings: Globally in 2019, 1·14 billion (95% uncertainty interval 1·13–1·16) individuals were current smokers, who consumed 7·41 trillion (7·11–7·74) cigarette-equivalents of tobacco in 2019. Although prevalence of smoking had decreased significantly since 1990 among both males (27·5% [26·5–28·5] reduction) and females (37·7% [35·4–39·9] reduction) aged 15 years and older, population growth has led to a significant increase in the total number of smokers from 0·99 billion (0·98–1·00) in 1990. Globally in 2019, smoking tobacco use accounted for 7·69 million (7·16–8·20) deaths and 200 million (185–214) disability-adjusted life-years, and was the leading risk factor for death among males (20·2% [19·3–21·1] of male deaths). 6·68 million [86·9%] of 7·69 million deaths attributable to smoking tobacco use were among current smokers. Interpretation: In the absence of intervention, the annual toll of 7·69 million deaths and 200 million disability-adjusted life-years attributable to smoking will increase over the coming decades. Substantial progress in reducing the prevalence of smoking tobacco use has been observed in countries from all regions and at all stages of development, but a large implementation gap remains for tobacco control. Countries have a clear and urgent opportunity to pass strong, evidence-based policies to accelerate reductions in the prevalence of smoking and reap massive health benefits for their citizens. Funding: Bloomberg Philanthropies and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2021 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license
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