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Estimate of the Basic Reproduction Number for Covid-19: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis Publisher Pubmed



Alimohamadi Y1, 2 ; Taghdir M3 ; Sepandi M3, 4
Authors
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Authors Affiliations
  1. 1. Pars Advanced and Minimally Invasive Medical Manners Research Center, Pars Hospital, Iran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
  2. 2. Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
  3. 3. Health Research Center, Lifestyle Institute, Baqiyatallah University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, 143591-13189, Iran
  4. 4. Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Faculty of Health, Baqiyatallah University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran

Source: Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health Published:2020


Abstract

The outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is one of the main public health challenges currently facing the world. Because of its high transmissibility, COVID-19 has already caused extensive morbidity and mortality in many countries throughout the world. An accurate estimation of the basic reproduction number (R0) of COVID-19 would be beneficial for prevention programs. In light of discrepancies in original research on this issue, this systematic review and meta-Analysis aimed to estimate the pooled R0 for COVID-19 in the current outbreak. Methods: International databases (including Google Scholar, Science Direct, PubMed, and Scopus) were searched to identify studies conducted regarding the R0 of COVID-19. Articles were searched using the following keywords: COVID-19 and basic reproduction number or R0. The heterogeneity among studies was assessed using the I2 index, the Cochran Q test, and T2. A random-effects model was used to estimate R0 in this study. Results: The mean reported R0 in the identified articles was 3.38±1.40, with a range of 1.90 to 6.49. According to the results of the random-effects model, the pooled R0 for COVID-19 was estimated as 3.32 (95% confidence interval, 2.81 to 3.82). According to the results of the meta-regression analysis, the type of model used to estimate R0 did not have a significant effect on heterogeneity among studies (p=0.81). Conclusions: Considering the estimated R0 for COVID-19, reducing the number of contacts within the population is a necessary step to control the epidemic. The estimated overall R0 was higher than the World Health Organization estimate. © 2020 Korean Society for Preventive Medicine. All rights reserved.
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