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Forecasting the Effects of Smoking Prevalence Scenarios on Years of Life Lost and Life Expectancy From 2022 to 2050: A Systematic Analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 Publisher Pubmed



Bryazka D1 ; Reitsma MB1 ; Abate YH2 ; Abd Al Magied AHA3 ; Abdelkader A4 ; Abdollahi A5 ; Abdoun M6, 7 ; Abdulkader RS8 ; Abeldano Zuniga RA9, 10 ; Abhilash ES11 ; Abiodun OO12 ; Abiodun O13 ; Aboagye RG14 ; Abreu LG15 Show All Authors
Authors
  1. Bryazka D1
  2. Reitsma MB1
  3. Abate YH2
  4. Abd Al Magied AHA3
  5. Abdelkader A4
  6. Abdollahi A5
  7. Abdoun M6, 7
  8. Abdulkader RS8
  9. Abeldano Zuniga RA9, 10
  10. Abhilash ES11
  11. Abiodun OO12
  12. Abiodun O13
  13. Aboagye RG14
  14. Abreu LG15
  15. Abtahi D16
  16. Abualruz H17
  17. Abubakar B18, 19
  18. Aburmeileh NM20
  19. Aburuz S21, 22
  20. Abuzaid A23, 24
  21. Adane MM25
  22. Adebiyi AO26, 27
  23. Adegboye OA28
  24. Adekanmbi V29
  25. Adewuyi HO30, 31
  26. Adnani QES32
  27. Adzigbli LA33
  28. Afaghi S34
  29. Afolabi AA35
  30. Afzal MS36
  31. Afzal S37, 38
  32. Agodi A39
  33. Agyemangduah W40
  34. Ahinkorah BO41
  35. Ahlstrom AJ1, 42
  36. Ahmad A43
  37. Ahmad D44, 45
  38. Ahmad MM46
  39. Ahmad S47, 48
  40. Ahmad S47, 48
  41. Ahmadi A51, 52
  42. Ahmed A53, 54
  43. Ahmed A53, 54
  44. Ahmed H57
  45. Ahmed MB58, 59
  46. Ahmed S60
  47. Ajami M61
  48. Akkaif MA62
  49. Akter E53
  50. Al Awaidy S63, 64
  51. Al Hasan SM65
  52. Alajlouni Y66, 67
  53. Alaly Z68, 69
  54. Alam K70
  55. Alam Z71
  56. Aldhaleei WA72
  57. Algammal AM73
  58. Algheethi AAS74, 75
  59. Alhabib KF76
  60. Alhalaiqa FN77
  61. Alhanawi MK78, 79
  62. Ali A80
  63. Ali MU81, 82
  64. Ali R83
  65. Ali SS84
  66. Ali W85
  67. Alif SM86, 87
  68. Aljunid SM88, 89
  69. Alla F90
  70. Allebeck P91
  71. Almahmeed W92, 93
  72. Almarwani S94, 95
  73. Almaweri S96
  74. Alomari MA97, 98
  75. Alqahtani JS99
  76. Alqutaibi AY100, 101
  77. Alraddadi RMM102
  78. Alrousan SM103
  79. Alsakarneh S104, 105
  80. Alshahrani NZ106
  81. Altaany Z107
  82. Altaf A108
  83. Alvisguzman N109, 110
  84. Alwardat M111
  85. Alworafi YM112, 113
  86. Aly H114
  87. Aly S115, 116
  88. Alyahya MSI117
  89. Alzoubi KH118, 119
  90. Alzyoud WA120
  91. Amani R121, 122
  92. Amin TT123
  93. Amiri S124
  94. Amu H125
  95. Amul GGH126, 127
  96. Amusa GA128, 129
  97. Anand T130
  98. Anderlini D131, 132
  99. Anderson DB133
  100. Anderson JA1
  101. Andrei CL134
  102. Andrei T135
  103. Ansari MT136
  104. Anuoluwa IA137
  105. Anvari S138
  106. Anwar SL139
  107. Anyasodor AE140
  108. Arabloo J141
  109. Arafa EA142, 143
  110. Aravkin AY1, 42, 144
  111. Areda D145, 146
  112. Aregawi BB147
  113. Aremu O148
  114. Artamonov AA149
  115. Asgedom AA150
  116. Asgharijafarabadi M151, 152
  117. Ashemo MY153, 154
  118. Ashraf T155
  119. Astellburt T156
  120. Athari SS157
  121. Atorkey P158, 159
  122. Atreya A160
  123. Aujayeb A161
  124. Awotidebe AW162, 163
  125. Ayano G164, 165
  126. Aychiluhm SB140, 166
  127. Azadnajafabad S167, 168
  128. Azzam AY169, 170
  129. Babu GR171
  130. Bahrami Taghanaki P172
  131. Bahramian S173
  132. Bai R174
  133. Bakkannavar SM175
  134. Balakrishnan S176
  135. Bam K177
  136. Banach M178, 179
  137. Bandyopadhyay S180, 181
  138. Baran MF182
  139. Barchitta M39
  140. Bardhan M183
  141. Barkercollo SL184
  142. Barrow A185, 186
  143. Bashiru HA187
  144. Basiru A188
  145. Bastan MM189, 190
  146. Basu S191, 192
  147. Basu S191, 192
  148. Batra K194
  149. Bayati M195
  150. Behnoush AH196, 197
  151. Bell SL198, 199
  152. Belo L200, 201
  153. Beneke AA202
  154. Bennett DA203
  155. Bensenor IM204
  156. Beran A205
  157. Bermudez ANC206, 207
  158. Beyene HB208, 209
  159. Bhagat DS210
  160. Bhagavathula AS72, 211
  161. Bhala N212, 213
  162. Bhardwaj N214
  163. Bhardwaj P215, 216
  164. Bhaskar S217, 218
  165. Bhat AN219
  166. Bhattacharjee NV1
  167. Bhattacharjee P220, 221
  168. Bhatti JS222
  169. Bilgin C223, 224
  170. Biswas A225
  171. Biswas B226
  172. Boachie MK227, 228
  173. Bogale EK229
  174. Bora Basara B230
  175. Borhany H231
  176. Bosoka SA33, 232
  177. Bouaoud S233, 234
  178. Boyko EJ235, 236
  179. Brenner H237
  180. Brunoni AR204, 238
  181. Bugiardini R239
  182. Bulamu NB240
  183. Bustanji Y241, 242
  184. Butt ZA243, 244
  185. Caetano Dos Santos FL245
  186. Calina D246
  187. Cao C247
  188. Cao F248
  189. Capodici A249, 250
  190. Cardenas R251
  191. Carreras G252
  192. Castaldellimaia JM238
  193. Cattaruzza MS253
  194. Caye A238, 254
  195. Cegolon L255, 256
  196. Cenko E239
  197. Cerrai S257
  198. Chakraborty S258
  199. Chandika RM259
  200. Chandrasekar EK260
  201. Chattu VK261, 262
  202. Chaudhary AA263
  203. Chaurasia A264
  204. Chen AT265, 266
  205. Chen G267, 268
  206. Chen H269
  207. Chen MX270
  208. Chen S271
  209. Cheng KJG272, 273
  210. Chi G274
  211. Chichagi F275
  212. Chimoriya R276, 277
  213. Chirinoscaceres JL278
  214. Chitheer A279
  215. Chong B280
  216. Chong CL281
  217. Chong YY282
  218. Chopra H283
  219. Choudhari SG284
  220. Chu DT285
  221. Chukwu IS286
  222. Chung SC287, 288
  223. Chutiyami M289
  224. Conde J290
  225. Corlateanu A291
  226. Criqui MH292
  227. Cruzmartins N293, 294
  228. Da Silva AG295
  229. Dadras O296, 297
  230. Dai S298, 299
  231. Dai X1, 144
  232. Damiani G300, 301
  233. Dandona L1, 302, 303
  234. Dandona R1, 144, 302
  235. Darcho SD304
  236. Darvishi Cheshmeh Soltani R305
  237. Das S306
  238. Dash NR307
  239. Davletov K308
  240. Debele AT309
  241. Debopadhaya S310
  242. Demant D41, 311
  243. Desai HD312
  244. Devegowda D313
  245. Dewan SMR314, 315
  246. Dhali A316
  247. Dhane AS317
  248. Dhulipala VR318
  249. Do TC319
  250. Dodangeh M190
  251. Doegah PT320
  252. Dohare S321
  253. Dongarwar D322
  254. Doria M255, 323
  255. Doshi OP324
  256. Doshi RP325, 326
  257. Dowou RK33
  258. Dsouza AC327
  259. Dsouza HL328, 329
  260. Dsouza VS330
  261. Duncan BB331
  262. Duraes AR332, 333
  263. Dziedzic AM334
  264. Emar AR114
  265. Ebrahimi A335
  266. Ebrahimi N336
  267. Ebrahimi Kalan M337
  268. Edvardsson D338
  269. Edvardsson K339
  270. Efendi F340
  271. Effendi DE341
  272. Eghbali F342
  273. Ekholuenetale M343
  274. El Arab RA344
  275. El Bayoumy IF345, 346
  276. El Sayed I347
  277. Elbarazi I348
  278. Elhadi M349, 350
  279. Elhuneidi W351
  280. Elmonem MA352
  281. Elnahas G353, 354
  282. Elsohaby I355, 356
  283. Eltaha C357
  284. Eltahir ME358
  285. Emamverdi M359
  286. Emeto TI360
  287. Erku DA361
  288. Etaee F362
  289. Ezenwankwo EF363
  290. Fabin N364
  291. Fagbamigbe AF365, 366
  292. Fagbule OF367, 368
  293. Faghani S369
  294. Fahim A370
  295. Fakhradiyev IR371
  296. Falzone L372, 373
  297. Farooque U374
  298. Fatehizadeh A375
  299. Fatima Z155
  300. Fauk NK376, 377
  301. Fazylov T378
  302. Feizkhah A379
  303. Fekadu G380, 381
  304. Feng X382, 383
  305. Ferrara P384, 385
  306. Ferreira N386
  307. Feyisa BR387, 388
  308. Filippidis FT192
  309. Fischer F389
  310. Flor LS1, 144
  311. Foigt NA390
  312. Fortuna Rodrigues C391, 392
  313. Foschi M393, 394
  314. G S395
  315. Gaal PA396, 397
  316. Gadanya MA398, 399
  317. Gaidhane AM400
  318. Gajdacs M401
  319. Gallus S402
  320. Gandhi AP403
  321. Ganesan B404
  322. Gautam P405
  323. Gautam RK406
  324. Gebregergis MW407
  325. Gebrehiwot M408
  326. Gebremeskel TG59, 409
  327. Getacher L410
  328. Ghadirian F411
  329. Ghazy RM412, 413
  330. Gholamrezanezhad A414
  331. Ghorbani M415
  332. Ghozy S416
  333. Gil AU417
  334. Gil GF1
  335. Gnedovskaya EV418
  336. Goel S419, 420
  337. Goharinezhad S421
  338. Goldust M422
  339. Golechha M423
  340. Goleij P424, 425
  341. Golinelli D426, 427
  342. Gorini G428
  343. Gouravani M196
  344. Grada A301
  345. Grivna M348, 429
  346. Grover S430, 431
  347. Guan SY432
  348. Gubari MIM433
  349. Guha A434, 435
  350. Guicciardi S436, 437
  351. Gulati S438
  352. Gunawardane DA439
  353. Gunturu S440, 441
  354. Guo Z442
  355. Gupta AK443, 444
  356. Gupta B445
  357. Gupta I446, 447
  358. Gupta M448
  359. Gupta R449, 450
  360. Gupta S451
  361. Gupta VB452
  362. Gupta V453
  363. Gupta VK454
  364. Hadei M455
  365. Hadi NR456
  366. Hajj Ali A457
  367. Halboub ES458
  368. Hamdy NM459
  369. Hamidi S71
  370. Hammoud A460
  371. Hankey GJ461, 462
  372. Hargono A463
  373. Haro JM464, 465
  374. Hasaballah AI466
  375. Hasan F467
  376. Hasan MK468, 469
  377. Hasnain MS470
  378. Hassan A471
  379. Hassan II472, 473
  380. Hassan S474, 475
  381. Hay SI1, 144
  382. Heibati B476
  383. Heidari M477
  384. Hemmati M478, 479
  385. Hendrie D165
  386. Herteliu C135, 480
  387. Heyi DZ481
  388. Hezam K482, 483
  389. Hiraike Y484
  390. Hoan NQ485
  391. Holla R486
  392. Horita N487, 488
  393. Hossain MM489, 490
  394. Hossain S491, 492
  395. Hosseinzadeh H493
  396. Hostiuc M494
  397. Hostiuc S495, 496
  398. Huang J497
  399. Humayun A498
  400. Hussain J499
  401. Hwang BF500, 501
  402. Ibitoye SE502
  403. Ikeda N503
  404. Ikiroma A504
  405. Ilesanmi OS27, 505
  406. Ilic IM506
  407. Ilic MD507
  408. Immurana M320
  409. Inbaraj LR508
  410. Iqhrammullah M509
  411. Irham LM510
  412. Islam MR511
  413. Islam SMS512, 513
  414. Islami F514
  415. Isola G515
  416. Itumalla R516
  417. Iwagami M517, 518
  418. Iyer M519
  419. J V395
  420. Jaafari J520
  421. Jacob L521, 522
  422. Jafarzadeh A523, 524
  423. Jaggi K525, 526
  424. Jahanmehr N527, 528
  425. Jain A529
  426. Jain N530
  427. Jairoun AA531
  428. Jaka S532
  429. Jakovljevic M533, 534
  430. Jalilzadeh Yengejeh R535
  431. Jamshidi E536
  432. Janodia MD537
  433. Jawaid T538
  434. Jayapal SK539
  435. Jayaram S540
  436. Jayasinghe RD541, 542
  437. Jebai R543
  438. Jee SH544
  439. Jeswani BM545
  440. Jiang H546, 547
  441. Jokar M548, 549
  442. Jonas JB550, 551
  443. Joo T396, 552
  444. Joseph N553
  445. Joshua CE554
  446. Jozwiak JJ555
  447. Jurisson M556
  448. K V557
  449. Kabir A5
  450. Kabir Z558
  451. Kadashetti V559
  452. Kamarajah SK560
  453. Kanaan M561
  454. Kanmodi KK562, 563
  455. Kant S564
  456. Kantar RS565, 566
  457. Karakasis P567
  458. Karaye IM568, 569
  459. Karimi SE570
  460. Karimi Y571
  461. Karimi Behnagh A572, 573
  462. Karkhah S574
  463. Karki P575
  464. Kashoo FZ576
  465. Katikireddi SV577
  466. Kaur H578
  467. Kaur N579
  468. Kazemian S580, 581
  469. Kazmi TH582, 583
  470. Keiyoro PN584
  471. Kesseguyot E585, 586
  472. Khader YS587
  473. Khajuria H588
  474. Khalaji A196, 589
  475. Khalilian A590
  476. Khan A591
  477. Khan M321
  478. Khan MJ82
  479. Khan MA592, 593
  480. Khanmohammadi S196, 594
  481. Khatab K595, 596
  482. Khatatbeh H597
  483. Khatatbeh MM598
  484. Khater AM599
  485. Kheirallah KA587
  486. Khokhar M600
  487. Khormali M601
  488. Khosla AA49, 602
  489. Khosravi S603, 604
  490. Kim K605
  491. Kim MS606, 607
  492. Kim YJ608
  493. Kisa A609, 610
  494. Kolahi AA611
  495. Komaki S612
  496. Kondlahalli SKM613
  497. Korja M614
  498. Korzh O615
  499. Kosen S616
  500. Kostev K617, 618
  501. Krishan K619
  502. Kuate Defo B620, 621
  503. Kuddus M622
  504. Kujan O623
  505. Kulimbet M624, 625
  506. Kumar A626
  507. Kumar GA302
  508. Kumar N553
  509. Kumar R627
  510. Kumar V628, 629
  511. Kundu A630
  512. Kundu S631, 632
  513. Kunutsor SK633, 634
  514. Kurmi OP635, 636
  515. Kusuma D637, 638
  516. Kyeiarthur F639
  517. Kyto V640, 641
  518. La Vecchia C642
  519. Lahariya C643, 644
  520. Lai DTC645, 646
  521. Lai H647, 648
  522. Lalloo R649
  523. Lallukka T650
  524. Larijani B651
  525. Lasrado S652
  526. Lau J653
  527. Lauriola P654
  528. Le TTT655
  529. Leasher JL656
  530. Lee M657
  531. Lee SW658
  532. Lee WC659
  533. Lee YH660
  534. Leong E661
  535. Lerango TL662
  536. Li A663, 664
  537. Li W665
  538. Ligade VS666
  539. Lim SS1, 144
  540. Lin J667
  541. Lindstedt PA1
  542. Liu G668
  543. Llanaj E669, 670
  544. Lopezgil JF671
  545. Lotufo PA672
  546. Lucchetti G673
  547. Lugo A674
  548. Lusk JB675
  549. M Amin HI676, 677
  550. Ma ZF678
  551. Machoy M679
  552. Madadizadeh F680
  553. Mahmoudi E681
  554. Makram AM192, 682
  555. Makram OM683, 684
  556. Malhotra K213, 685
  557. Malik AA686
  558. Malta DC687
  559. Mamun AA688
  560. Mansouri P681
  561. Mansournia MA689
  562. Manu E125
  563. Marateb HR690, 691
  564. Martinezraga J692, 693
  565. Martorell M694, 695
  566. Marzo RR696, 697
  567. Mathangasinghe Y698, 699
  568. Mathews E700
  569. Mathur M701
  570. Mathur N702
  571. Mattiello R703
  572. Maugeri A39
  573. Mckee M704
  574. Mechili EA705, 706
  575. Mehrotra R707
  576. Mekene Meto T708
  577. Mekonnen BD709
  578. Meles HN710
  579. Mendoza W711
  580. Menezes RG712
  581. Meo SA713
  582. Meretoja A714, 715
  583. Meretoja TJ716, 717
  584. Mestrovic T1, 718
  585. Meyers CCA719, 720
  586. Michalek IM721, 722
  587. Miller TR165, 723
  588. Minervini G724, 725
  589. Mirghafourvand M726
  590. Mirrakhimov EM727, 728
  591. Mishra V729, 730
  592. Misra S731
  593. Mithra P553
  594. Mohamed AI732, 733
  595. Mohamed J734
  596. Mohamed MFH735
  597. Mohamed NS736, 737
  598. Mohammad AM738
  599. Mohammadalizadehcharandabi S570, 739
  600. Mohammadzadeh I740
  601. Mohammed H741
  602. Mohammed S271, 742
  603. Mohan S743, 744
  604. Mokdad AH1, 144
  605. Molavi Vardanjani H745
  606. Molinaro S746
  607. Momani S747, 748
  608. Mondal H749
  609. Mons U750, 751
  610. Moodi Ghalibaf A752
  611. Moradi M753
  612. Moreira RS754, 755
  613. Morovatdar N756
  614. Morrison SD757
  615. Mougin V1
  616. Mukoro GD758
  617. Mulita F759, 760
  618. Mullany EC1
  619. Muniyandi M761
  620. Munkhsaikhan Y762
  621. Murillozamora E763, 764
  622. Murray CJL1, 144
  623. Myung W765, 766
  624. Naghavi P767
  625. Naik GR59, 768
  626. Najdaghi S769, 770
  627. Najmuldeen HHR771
  628. Naldi L772, 773
  629. Nambi G774
  630. Nangia V775
  631. Nansseu JR776, 777
  632. Nargus S778
  633. Nascimento GG779
  634. Nashwan AJ780
  635. Natto ZS781, 782
  636. Nauman J783, 784
  637. Naveed M785
  638. Nayak BP588
  639. Nayak VC787
  640. Nazripanjaki A788
  641. Nduaguba SO789
  642. Negoi RI790, 791
  643. Nejad Shahrokh Abadi R792
  644. Nejadghaderi SA594, 793
  645. Nejjari C794, 795
  646. Neupane S796
  647. Ng M1, 797
  648. Ngunjiri JW798
  649. Nguyen DH799, 800
  650. Nguyen HTH801, 802
  651. Nguyen HQ803
  652. Nguyen PT804
  653. Nguyen PT804
  654. Nguyen VT807
  655. Nigatu YT808
  656. Nikolouzakis TK809, 810
  657. Nikoobar A611
  658. Nikravangolsefid N811
  659. Niranjan V812, 813
  660. Nnaji CA814, 815
  661. Nnyanzi LA816
  662. Noman EA817, 818
  663. Nomura S819, 820
  664. Noor STA821, 822
  665. Noreen M823
  666. Nozari M824
  667. Nugen F825, 826
  668. Nzoputam CI827
  669. Nzoputam OJ828, 829
  670. Oancea B830
  671. Obamiro KO831
  672. Odetokun IA832
  673. Odo DBO833
  674. Odukoya OO834, 835
  675. Oduro MS836
  676. Oguta JO837
  677. Oh IH838
  678. Okatialiabad H839
  679. Okeke SR840, 841
  680. Okekunle AP842, 843
  681. Okonji OC844
  682. Olagunju AT845, 846
  683. Olasupo OO847
  684. Olatubi MI848
  685. Oliveira GMM849
  686. Olorukooba AA850
  687. Omer GL851, 852
  688. Ong SK853, 854
  689. Opejin AO855
  690. Ordak M856
  691. Orish VN857, 858
  692. Ortizprado E859
  693. Osuagwu UL860, 861
  694. Otstavnov SS862, 863
  695. Ouyahia A864, 865
  696. P A MP866
  697. Padronmonedero A867
  698. Padubidri JR868
  699. Pak A869, 870
  700. Palmaalvarez RF871, 872
  701. Pan HF432
  702. Panagiotakos D873, 874
  703. Pandajonas S875
  704. Pandey A302
  705. Panos LD876, 877
  706. Pantazopoulos I878, 879
  707. Pantea Stoian A880
  708. Papadopoulou P881, 882
  709. Pardhan S883
  710. Parija PP884
  711. Parikh RR885
  712. Park EK886
  713. Park S887
  714. Parsons N888
  715. Passera R889, 890
  716. Patel J891, 892
  717. Patel SK893
  718. Patil S894, 895
  719. Patwary H53
  720. Pawar S896
  721. Peprah P897
  722. Pereira G898, 899
  723. Perianayagam A900
  724. Pestell RG901, 902
  725. Petermannrocha FE903, 904
  726. Pham T1
  727. Philip AK905
  728. Phillips MR906, 907
  729. Poddighe D908, 909
  730. Polibin RV910
  731. Poluru R911
  732. Porru F912
  733. Pourshams A913
  734. Pradhan J914
  735. Pradhan PMS915, 916
  736. Prasad M917
  737. Prashant A918
  738. Prates EJS687
  739. Pribadi DRA919
  740. Purohit BM920
  741. Puvvula J921
  742. Qattea I922
  743. Radhakrishnan V923
  744. Raggi C1
  745. Raghav P215
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  747. Rahimimovaghar A926
  748. Rahman MM927
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  750. Rahman MA338, 928
  751. Rahmani S189, 929
  752. Rahmanian M930
  753. Rahmanian N931
  754. Rajendran V395
  755. Rajpoot PL932
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  761. Rana RK939
  762. Ranabhat CL940, 941
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  766. Rashidi MM189, 611
  767. Rasoulisaravani A946
  768. Rathish D947
  769. Rauniyar SK820
  770. Rautalin I614, 948
  771. Ravikumar N949
  772. Rawaf S950, 951
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  774. Redwan EMM953, 954
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  779. Rodrigues Da Silva TPR959, 960
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  797. Saeed U978, 979
  798. Saeedi P980
  799. Safi SZ981, 982
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  802. Sahebkar A985, 986
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  804. Sajib MRUZ988
  805. Sajid MR989
  806. Salaroli LB990
  807. Saleh MA975, 991
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  809. Salihu D994
  810. Samodra YL995, 996
  811. Samy AM997, 998
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  815. Saqib MAN1003, 1004
  816. Sarasmita MA1005, 1006
  817. Saravanan A1007, 1008
  818. Saravi B1009, 1010
  819. Sarikhani Y122, 1011
  820. Sarkar T1012
  821. Sarode GS1013
  822. Sarode SC1013
  823. Sartorius B144, 1014, 1015
  824. Sathian B1016, 1017
  825. Sathyanarayan A327
  826. Satpathy M1018, 1019
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  828. Saylan M1021
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  830. Schaub MP1023
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  835. Selvaraj S1028
  836. Semreen MH1029, 1030
  837. Senthilkumaran S1031
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  840. Seyedi SA651
  841. Seylani A1034
  842. Shafie M1035
  843. Shafiee A1036
  844. Shahbandi A196
  845. Shahid S108, 1037
  846. Shahsavari HR1038
  847. Shahwan MJ1039
  848. Shaikh A1040, 1041
  849. Shaikh MA1042
  850. Shalash AS1043
  851. Shamim MA1044
  852. Shamsi A1039, 1045
  853. Shamsutdinova A1046
  854. Shanawaz M1047
  855. Shankar A1048
  856. Shannawaz M1049
  857. Sharath M327
  858. Sharifan A1050, 1051
  859. Sharma M1052
  860. Sharma U222
  861. Sharma V1053
  862. Sheikh A1054, 1055
  863. Sheikhy A1056, 1057
  864. Shetty M1058
  865. Shetty PH868
  866. Shetty PK1059
  867. Shiferaw D58, 1060
  868. Shimels T1061
  869. Shiri R1062
  870. Shittu A1063
  871. Shiue I1064, 1065
  872. Shivarov V1066, 1067
  873. Shorofi SA1068, 1069
  874. Shrestha S1070
  875. Siddig EE1071, 1072
  876. Silva JP201
  877. Singh A1073
  878. Singh B1074
  879. Singh H1075
  880. Singh JA1076, 1077
  881. Singh P1078
  882. Singh P1078
  883. Singh S1044
  884. Singh V1080
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  886. Smith AE1
  887. Soboka M1083
  888. Solanki R1084, 1085
  889. Solmi M1086
  890. Soraneh S1087, 1088
  891. Soriano JB1089, 1090
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  919. Tareke M1120
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  935. Trabelsi K1135
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  940. Trihandini I638
  941. Tripathy JP1140
  942. Truyen TTTT1141
  943. Tsermpini EE1142
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  945. Udoakang AJ1144
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  948. Ullah S1146
  949. Umair M36, 1147
  950. Unim B1148
  951. Unnikrishnan B1149
  952. Usman JS82, 162
  953. Vahdati S1150
  954. Vaithinathan AG1151
  955. Van Den Eynde J1027
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  959. Vellingiri B1155, 1156
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  1002. Zhou SC1210
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Source: The Lancet Public Health Published:2024


Abstract

Background: Smoking is the leading behavioural risk factor for mortality globally, accounting for more than 175 million deaths and nearly 4·30 billion years of life lost (YLLs) from 1990 to 2021. The pace of decline in smoking prevalence has slowed in recent years for many countries, and although strategies have recently been proposed to achieve tobacco-free generations, none have been implemented to date. Assessing what could happen if current trends in smoking prevalence persist, and what could happen if additional smoking prevalence reductions occur, is important for communicating the effect of potential smoking policies. Methods: In this analysis, we use the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation's Future Health Scenarios platform to forecast the effects of three smoking prevalence scenarios on all-cause and cause-specific YLLs and life expectancy at birth until 2050. YLLs were computed for each scenario using the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 reference life table and forecasts of cause-specific mortality under each scenario. The reference scenario forecasts what could occur if past smoking prevalence and other risk factor trends continue, the Tobacco Smoking Elimination as of 2023 (Elimination-2023) scenario quantifies the maximum potential future health benefits from assuming zero percent smoking prevalence from 2023 onwards, whereas the Tobacco Smoking Elimination by 2050 (Elimination-2050) scenario provides estimates for countries considering policies to steadily reduce smoking prevalence to 5%. Together, these scenarios underscore the magnitude of health benefits that could be reached by 2050 if countries take decisive action to eliminate smoking. The 95% uncertainty interval (UI) of estimates is based on the 2·5th and 97·5th percentile of draws that were carried through the multistage computational framework. Findings: Global age-standardised smoking prevalence was estimated to be 28·5% (95% UI 27·9–29·1) among males and 5·96% (5·76–6·21) among females in 2022. In the reference scenario, smoking prevalence declined by 25·9% (25·2–26·6) among males, and 30·0% (26·1–32·1) among females from 2022 to 2050. Under this scenario, we forecast a cumulative 29·3 billion (95% UI 26·8–32·4) overall YLLs among males and 22·2 billion (20·1–24·6) YLLs among females over this period. Life expectancy at birth under this scenario would increase from 73·6 years (95% UI 72·8–74·4) in 2022 to 78·3 years (75·9–80·3) in 2050. Under our Elimination-2023 scenario, we forecast 2·04 billion (95% UI 1·90–2·21) fewer cumulative YLLs by 2050 compared with the reference scenario, and life expectancy at birth would increase to 77·6 years (95% UI 75·1–79·6) among males and 81·0 years (78·5–83·1) among females. Under our Elimination-2050 scenario, we forecast 735 million (675–808) and 141 million (131–154) cumulative YLLs would be avoided among males and females, respectively. Life expectancy in 2050 would increase to 77·1 years (95% UI 74·6–79·0) among males and 80·8 years (78·3–82·9) among females. Interpretation: Existing tobacco policies must be maintained if smoking prevalence is to continue to decline as forecast by the reference scenario. In addition, substantial smoking-attributable burden can be avoided by accelerating the pace of smoking elimination. Implementation of new tobacco control policies are crucial in avoiding additional smoking-attributable burden in the coming decades and to ensure that the gains won over the past three decades are not lost. Funding: Bloomberg Philanthropies and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2024 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license
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