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Global, Regional, and National Disease Burden Estimates of Acute Lower Respiratory Infections Due to Respiratory Syncytial Virus in Young Children in 2015: A Systematic Review and Modelling Study Publisher Pubmed



Shi T1 ; Mcallister DA2 ; Obrien KL3 ; Simoes EAF4 ; Madhi SA5, 6 ; Gessner BD7 ; Polack FP8 ; Balsells E1 ; Acacio S9 ; Aguayo C10 ; Alassani I11 ; Ali A12 ; Antonio M13 ; Awasthi S14 Show All Authors
Authors
  1. Shi T1
  2. Mcallister DA2
  3. Obrien KL3
  4. Simoes EAF4
  5. Madhi SA5, 6
  6. Gessner BD7
  7. Polack FP8
  8. Balsells E1
  9. Acacio S9
  10. Aguayo C10
  11. Alassani I11
  12. Ali A12
  13. Antonio M13
  14. Awasthi S14
  15. Awori JO15
  16. Azzizbaumgartner E16, 17
  17. Baggett HC18, 19
  18. Baillie VL5
  19. Balmaseda A20
  20. Barahona A21
  21. Basnet S22, 23
  22. Bassat Q9, 24, 25
  23. Basualdo W26
  24. Bigogo G27
  25. Bont L28
  26. Breiman RF29
  27. Brooks WA3, 16
  28. Broor S30
  29. Bruce N31
  30. Bruden D32
  31. Buchy P33, 34
  32. Campbell S1
  33. Carosonelink P35
  34. Chadha M36
  35. Chipeta J37
  36. Chou M38
  37. Clara W39
  38. Cohen C40, 41
  39. De Cuellar E42
  40. Dang DA43
  41. Dashyandag B44
  42. Deloriaknoll M3
  43. Dherani M31
  44. Eap T45
  45. Ebruke BE13
  46. Echavarria M46
  47. De Freitas Lazaro Emediato CC47
  48. Fasce RA48
  49. Feikin DR17
  50. Feng L49
  51. Gentile A50
  52. Gordon A51
  53. Goswami D3, 16
  54. Goyet S33
  55. Groome M5, 6
  56. Halasa N52
  57. Hirve S53
  58. Homaira N16, 54
  59. Howie SRC13, 55, 56
  60. Jara J57
  61. Jroundi I24, 58
  62. Kartasasmita CB59
  63. Khuribulos N60
  64. Kotloff KL61
  65. Krishnan A30
  66. Libster R8, 52, 62
  67. Lopez O63
  68. Lucero MG64
  69. Lucion F50
  70. Lupisan SP65
  71. Marcone DN46
  72. Mccracken JP57
  73. Mejia M66
  74. Moisi JC7
  75. Montgomery JM67
  76. Moore DP5, 6
  77. Moraleda C24
  78. Moyes J40, 41
  79. Munywoki P15, 68
  80. Mutyara K59
  81. Nicol MP69
  82. Nokes DJ15, 70
  83. Nymadawa P71
  84. Da Costa Oliveira MT47
  85. Oshitani H72
  86. Pandey N14
  87. Paranhosbaccala G73
  88. Phillips LN74
  89. Picot VS73
  90. Rahman M16
  91. Rakotoandrianarivelo M75
  92. Rasmussen ZA76
  93. Rath BA77
  94. Robinson A78
  95. Romero C79
  96. Russomando G80
  97. Salimi V81
  98. Sawatwong P18
  99. Scheltema N28
  100. Schweiger B82
  101. Scott JAG15, 83
  102. Seidenberg P84
  103. Shen K85
  104. Singleton R32, 86
  105. Sotomayor V10
  106. Strand TA22, 87
  107. Sutanto A88
  108. Sylla M89
  109. Tapia MD61
  110. Thamthitiwat S18
  111. Thomas ED76
  112. Tokarz R90
  113. Turner C91
  114. Venter M92
  115. Waicharoen S93
  116. Wang J94
  117. Watthanaworawit W91
  118. Yoshida LM95
  119. Yu H49
  120. Zar HJ96
  121. Campbell H1
  122. Nair H1, 97
Show Affiliations
Authors Affiliations
  1. 1. Centre for Global Health Research, Usher Institute of Population Health Sciences and Informatics, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, Scotland, United Kingdom
  2. 2. Institute of Health and Wellbeing, University of Glasgow, Scotland, United Kingdom
  3. 3. Department of International Health, International Vaccine Access Center, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MS, United States
  4. 4. University of Colorado, Aurora, CO, United States
  5. 5. Medical Research Council: Respiratory and Meningeal Pathogens Research Unit, School of Pathology, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa
  6. 6. Department of Science and Technology/National Research Foundation: Vaccine Preventable Diseases, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa
  7. 7. Agence de Medecine Preventive, Paris, France
  8. 8. Fundacion INFANT, Buenos Aires, Argentina
  9. 9. Centro de Investigacao em Saude de Manhica (CISM), Maputo, Mozambique
  10. 10. Epidemiology Department, Ministry of Health, Chile
  11. 11. Ministry of Health, Togo
  12. 12. Department of Pediatrics and Child Health, Aga Khan University, Pakistan
  13. 13. Medical Research Council Unit The Gambia, Basse, Gambia
  14. 14. Department of Pediatrics, King George's Medical University, Lucknow, (UP), India
  15. 15. Kenya Medical Research Institute-Wellcome Trust Research Programme, Centre for Geographic Medicine Research-Coast, Kilifi, Kenya
  16. 16. International Centre for Diarrhoeal Disease Research, Bangladesh
  17. 17. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA, United States
  18. 18. Global Disease Detection Center, Thailand Ministry of Public Health—US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Collaboration, Nonthaburi, Thailand
  19. 19. Division of Global Health Protection, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA, United States
  20. 20. Ministry of Health, Nicaragua
  21. 21. Hospital Materno Infantil Jose Domingo de Obaldia, Ciudad De David, Chiriqui, Panama
  22. 22. Center for International Health, University of Bergen, Norway
  23. 23. Department of Child Health, Tribhuvan University Institute of Medicine, Nepal
  24. 24. ISGlobal, Barcelona Ctr Int Health Res (CRESIB), Hospital Clinic - Universitat de Barcelona, Barcelona, Spain
  25. 25. ICREA, Pg Lluis Companys 23, Barcelona, 08010, Spain
  26. 26. Hospital General Pediatrico Ninos de Acosta Nu, Ministerio de Salud Publica y Bienestar Social, San Lorenzo, Paraguay
  27. 27. Kenya Medical Research Institute, Centre for Global Health Research, Kisumu, Kenya
  28. 28. Wilhelmina Children's Hospital, University Medical Center Utrecht, Netherlands
  29. 29. Emory Global Health Institute, Emory University, AT, United States
  30. 30. All India Institute of Medical Sciences, New Delhi, India
  31. 31. Department of Public Health and Policy, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, United Kingdom
  32. 32. Arctic Investigations Program, National Center for Emerging and Zoonotic Infectious Diseases (NCEZID), Centres for Disease Control and Prevention, Anchorage, AK, United States
  33. 33. Institute Pasteur Cambodia, Children's Hospital Colorado, Aurora, CO, United States
  34. 34. GSK Vaccines Singapore, Children's Hospital Colorado, Aurora, CO, United States
  35. 35. Department of Pediatric Infectious Diseases, Children's Hospital Colorado, Aurora, CO, United States
  36. 36. National Institute of Virology, Pune, India
  37. 37. University Teaching Hospital, Lusaka, Zambia
  38. 38. Rodolphe Merieux Laboratory, Faculty of Pharmacy, University of Health Sciences, Phnom Penh, Cambodia
  39. 39. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Central American Region, Guatemala City, Guatemala
  40. 40. Centre for Respiratory Diseases and Meningitis, National Institute for Communicable Diseases of the National Health Laboratory Service, Johannesburg, South Africa
  41. 41. School of Public Health, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa
  42. 42. Hospital San Juan de Dios, Santa Ana, Ministry of Health, El Salvador
  43. 43. National Institute of Hygiene and Epidemiology, Hanoi, Viet Nam
  44. 44. Bayanzurkh District General Hospital, Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia
  45. 45. Department of Pneumology, National Pediatric Hospital, Phnom Penh, Cambodia
  46. 46. Centro de Educacion Medica envestigaciones Clinicas “CEMIC�, Argentina
  47. 47. Health Secretariat of the City of Belo Horizonte, Brazil
  48. 48. Public Health Institute, Chile
  49. 49. Division of Infectious Disease, Key Laboratory of Surveillance and Early-warning on Infectious Disease, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China
  50. 50. Epidemiology Department, Austral University and Ricardo Gutierrez Children Hospital, Argentina
  51. 51. Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, United States
  52. 52. Vanderbilt University, Nashville, TN, United States
  53. 53. KEM Hospital Research Center, Pune, India
  54. 54. School of Women's and Children's Health, Faculty of Medicine, University of New South Wales, NSW, Australia
  55. 55. Department of Paediatrics, University of Auckland, Auckland, New Zealand
  56. 56. Centre for International Health, University of Otago, Dunedin, New Zealand
  57. 57. Center for Health Studies, Universidad del Valle de Guatemala, Guatemala
  58. 58. Unit of Training and Research in Public Health, School of Medicine and Pharmacy of Rabat, University Mohamed V, Rabat, Morocco
  59. 59. University of Padjdjaran, Bandung, Indonesia
  60. 60. University of Jordan, Amman, Jordan
  61. 61. Department of Pediatrics and Medicine, Center for Vaccine Development, University of Maryland School of Medicine, Baltimore, MD, United States
  62. 62. National Scientific and Technical Research Council (CONICET), Buenos Aires, Argentina
  63. 63. Hospital Dr Ernesto Torres Galdames, Iquique, Chile
  64. 64. Research Institute for Tropical Medicine, Muntinlupa, Philippines
  65. 65. Research Institute for Tropical Medicine-Department of Health, Philippines
  66. 66. Ministry of Public Health and Social Welfare, Guatemala
  67. 67. Division of Global Health Protection, Center for Global Health, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Nairobi, Kenya
  68. 68. Pwani University, Kilifi, Kenya
  69. 69. Division of Medical Microbiology, University of Cape Town and National Health Laboratory Services, South Africa
  70. 70. School of Life Sciences, University of Warwick, Coventry, United Kingdom
  71. 71. Mongolian Academy of Medical Sciences, Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia
  72. 72. Tohoku University Graduate School of Medicine, Department of Virology, Miyagi Prefecture, Japan
  73. 73. Emerging Pathofens Laboratory, Fondation Merieux, Centre International de Recherche en Infectiologie (CIRI), Inserm U1111, CNRS UMR5308, ENS de Lyon, Lyon, UCBL1, France
  74. 74. Emory University, Rollins School of Public Health, AT, United States
  75. 75. Centre d'Infectiologie Charles Merieux (CICM), Antananarivo, Madagascar
  76. 76. Fogarty International Center Division of International Epidemiology and Population Studies, NIH, Bethesda, MD, United States
  77. 77. Department of Pediatrics, Charite University Medical Center, Berlin, Germany
  78. 78. Hopital Femme-Mere-Enfant, Antananarivo, Madagascar
  79. 79. United States Naval Medical Research Unit No. 6, Callao, Peru
  80. 80. Departamento de Biologia Molecular y Genetica, Instituto de Investigaciones en Ciencias de la Salud, Universidad Nacional de Asuncion, Paraguay
  81. 81. School of Public Health, Virology Department, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Iran
  82. 82. Robert Koch Institute (RKI), Berlin, Germany
  83. 83. London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom
  84. 84. Department of Emergency Medicine, University of New Mexico, Albuquerque, New Mexico, United States
  85. 85. Key Laboratory of Major Diseases in Children and National Key Discipline of Pediatrics (Capital Medical University), Ministry of Education, Beijing Pediatric Research Institute, Beijing Children's Hospital, Beijing, China
  86. 86. Alaska Native Tribal Health Consortium, Anchorage, AK, United States
  87. 87. Department of Research, Innlandet Hospital Trust, Lillehammer, Norway
  88. 88. Ministry of Health, Indonesia
  89. 89. CHU Gabriel Toure, Bamako, Mali
  90. 90. Centre for Infection and Immunity, Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia University, NY, United States
  91. 91. Shoklo Malaria Research Unit, Mahidol-Oxford Tropical Medicine Research Unit, Faculty of Tropical Medicine, Mahidol University, Mae Sot, Thailand
  92. 92. Centre for Viral Zoonosis, Department of Medical Virology, University of Pretoria, Pretoria, South Africa
  93. 93. National Institute of Health, Department of Medical Sciences, Ministry of Public Health, Thailand
  94. 94. MOH Key Laboratory of Systems Biology of Pathogens and Christophe Merieux Laboratory, IPB, CAMS-Fondation Merieux, Institute of Pathogen Biology (IPB), Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences (CAMS) & Peking Union Medical College (PUMC), Beijing, China
  95. 95. Department of Pediatric Infectious Diseases, Institute of Tropical Medicine, Nagasaki University, Nagasaki, Japan
  96. 96. Department of Paediatrics and Child Heath, Red Cross War Memorial Children's Hospital and MRC Unit on Child & Adolescent Health, University of Cape Town, South Africa
  97. 97. Public Health Foundation of India, New Delhi, India

Source: The Lancet Published:2017


Abstract

Background We have previously estimated that respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) was associated with 22% of all episodes of (severe) acute lower respiratory infection (ALRI) resulting in 55 000 to 199 000 deaths in children younger than 5 years in 2005. In the past 5 years, major research activity on RSV has yielded substantial new data from developing countries. With a considerably expanded dataset from a large international collaboration, we aimed to estimate the global incidence, hospital admission rate, and mortality from RSV-ALRI episodes in young children in 2015. Methods We estimated the incidence and hospital admission rate of RSV-associated ALRI (RSV-ALRI) in children younger than 5 years stratified by age and World Bank income regions from a systematic review of studies published between Jan 1, 1995, and Dec 31, 2016, and unpublished data from 76 high quality population-based studies. We estimated the RSV-ALRI incidence for 132 developing countries using a risk factor-based model and 2015 population estimates. We estimated the in-hospital RSV-ALRI mortality by combining in-hospital case fatality ratios with hospital admission estimates from hospital-based (published and unpublished) studies. We also estimated overall RSV-ALRI mortality by identifying studies reporting monthly data for ALRI mortality in the community and RSV activity. Findings We estimated that globally in 2015, 33·1 million (uncertainty range [UR] 21·6–50·3) episodes of RSV-ALRI, resulted in about 3·2 million (2·7–3·8) hospital admissions, and 59 600 (48 000–74 500) in-hospital deaths in children younger than 5 years. In children younger than 6 months, 1·4 million (UR 1·2–1·7) hospital admissions, and 27 300 (UR 20 700–36 200) in-hospital deaths were due to RSV-ALRI. We also estimated that the overall RSV-ALRI mortality could be as high as 118 200 (UR 94 600–149 400). Incidence and mortality varied substantially from year to year in any given population. Interpretation Globally, RSV is a common cause of childhood ALRI and a major cause of hospital admissions in young children, resulting in a substantial burden on health-care services. About 45% of hospital admissions and in-hospital deaths due to RSV-ALRI occur in children younger than 6 months. An effective maternal RSV vaccine or monoclonal antibody could have a substantial effect on disease burden in this age group. Funding The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2017 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license
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