Tehran University of Medical Sciences

Science Communicator Platform

Stay connected! Follow us on X network (Twitter):
Share this content! On (X network) By
Estimates of the Global, Regional, and National Morbidity, Mortality, and Aetiologies of Lower Respiratory Tract Infections in 195 Countries: A Systematic Analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015 Publisher Pubmed



Troeger C1 ; Forouzanfar M1 ; Rao PC1 ; Khalil I1 ; Brown A1 ; Swartz S1 ; Fullman N1 ; Mosser J1 ; Thompson RL1 ; Abajobir A3 ; Alam N4 ; Alemayohu MA6 ; Amare AT7 ; Antonio CA8 Show All Authors
Authors
  1. Troeger C1
  2. Forouzanfar M1
  3. Rao PC1
  4. Khalil I1
  5. Brown A1
  6. Swartz S1
  7. Fullman N1
  8. Mosser J1
  9. Thompson RL1
  10. Abajobir A3
  11. Alam N4
  12. Alemayohu MA6
  13. Amare AT7
  14. Antonio CA8
  15. Asayesh H9
  16. Avokpaho E10
  17. Barac A11
  18. Beshir MA12
  19. Boneya DJ13
  20. Brauer M5
  21. Dandona L1
  22. Dandona R14
  23. Fitchett JRA15
  24. Gebrehiwot TT12
  25. Hailu GB6
  26. Hotez PJ16
  27. Kasaeian A17
  28. Khoja T18
  29. Kissoon N5
  30. Knibbs L3
  31. Kumar GA14
  32. Rai RK19
  33. Magdy Abd El Razek HMA20
  34. Mohammed MSK21
  35. Nielsen K1
  36. Oren E22
  37. Osman A23
  38. Patton G24
  39. Qorbani M25
  40. Roba HS26
  41. Sartorius B27
  42. Savic M28
  43. Shigematsu M29
  44. Sykes B30
  45. Swaminathan S31
  46. Topormadry R32
  47. Ukwaja K33
  48. Werdecker A34
  49. Yonemoto N35
  50. El Sayed Zaki M20
  51. Lim SS1
  52. Naghavi M1
  53. Vos T1
  54. Hay SI1, 2
  55. Murray CJL1
  56. Mokdad AH1
Show Affiliations
Authors Affiliations
  1. 1. Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, United States
  2. 2. University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
  3. 3. University of Queensland, Brisbane, QLD, Australia
  4. 4. Queensland Health Australia, Brisbane, QLD, Australia
  5. 5. University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada
  6. 6. Mekelle University, Mekelle, Ethiopia
  7. 7. University of Adelaide, Adelaide, SA, Australia
  8. 8. University of the Philippines Manila, Manna, Philippines
  9. 9. Qom University of Medical Sdences, Qom, Iran
  10. 10. Africare Benin, Cotonou, Benin
  11. 11. University of Belgrade, Belgrade, Serbia
  12. 12. Jimma University, Jimma, Ethiopia
  13. 13. Debre Markos University, Debre Markos, Ethiopia
  14. 14. Public Health Foundation of India, Gurugram, India
  15. 15. Harvard University, Boston, MA, United States
  16. 16. Baylor University, Atlanta, GA, United States
  17. 17. Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
  18. 18. Executive Board of the Health Ministers' Council for Cooperation Council States, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
  19. 19. Society for Health and Demographic Surveillance, Kolkata, India
  20. 20. Mansoura University, Mansoura, Egypt
  21. 21. MizanTepi University, Tepi, Ethiopia
  22. 22. University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ, United States
  23. 23. Public Health Institute Sudan, Khartoum, Sudan
  24. 24. University of Melbourne, Melbourne, VIC, Australia
  25. 25. Alborz University of Medical Sciences, Baghestan, Iran
  26. 26. Haramaya University, Dire Dawa, Ethiopia
  27. 27. University of KwaZulu-Natal, Durban, South Africa
  28. 28. Norwegian Institute of Public Health, Oslo, Norway
  29. 29. National Institute of Infectious Diseases Japan, Tokyo, Japan
  30. 30. University of California Irvine, Irvine, CA, United States
  31. 31. Indian Council of Medical Research, New Delhi, India
  32. 32. Jagiellonian University Medical College, Krakow, Poland
  33. 33. Federal Teaching Hospital, Abakaliki, Nigeria
  34. 34. Federal Institute for Population Research, Wiesbaden, Germany
  35. 35. Kyoto University, Kyoto, Japan

Source: The Lancet Infectious Diseases Published:2017


Abstract

Background The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors (GBD) Study 2015 provides an up-to-date analysis of the burden of lower respiratory tract infections (LRIs) in 195 countries. This study assesses cases, deaths, and aetiologies spanning the past 25 years and shows how the burden of LRI has changed in people of all ages. Methods We estimated LRI mortality by age, sex, geography, and year using a modelling platform shared across most causes of death in the GBD 2015 study called the Cause of Death Ensemble model. We modelled LRI morbidity, including incidence and prevalence, using a meta-regression platform called DisMod-MR. We estimated aetiologies for LRI using two different counterfactual approaches, the first for viral pathogens, which incorporates the aetiology-specific risk of LRI and the prevalence of the aetiology in LRI episodes, and the second for bacterial pathogens, which uses a vaccine-probe approach. We used the Socio-demographic Index, which is a summary indicator derived from measures of income per capita, educational attainment, and fertility, to assess trends in LRI-related mortality. The two leading risk factors for LRI disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), childhood undernutrition and air pollution, were used in a decomposition analysis to establish the relative contribution of changes in LRI DALYs. Findings In 2015, we estimated that LRIs caused 2·74 million deaths (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 2·50 million to 2·86 million) and 103·0 million DALYs (95% UI 96·1 million to 109·1 million). LRIs have a disproportionate effect on children younger than 5 years, responsible for 704 000 deaths (95% UI 651 000–763 000) and 60.6 million DALYs (95UI 56·0–65·6). Between 2005 and 2015, the number of deaths due to LRI decreased by 36·9% (95% UI 31·6 to 42·0) in children younger than 5 years, and by 3·2% (95% UI −0·4 to 6·9) in all ages. Pneumococcal pneumonia caused 55·4% of LRI deaths in all ages, totalling 1 517 388 deaths (95% UI 857 940–2 183 791). Between 2005 and 2015, improvements in air pollution exposure were responsible for a 4·3% reduction in LRI DALYs and improvements in childhood undernutrition were responsible for an 8·9% reduction. Interpretation LRIs are the leading infectious cause of death and the fifth-leading cause of death overall; they are the second-leading cause of DALYs. At the global level, the burden of LRIs has decreased dramatically in the last 10 years in children younger than 5 years, although the burden in people older than 70 years has increased in many regions. LRI remains a largely preventable disease and cause of death, and continued efforts to decrease indoor and ambient air pollution, improve childhood nutrition, and scale up the use of the pneumococcal conjugate vaccine in children and adults will be essential in reducing the global burden of LRI. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2017 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license
Experts (# of related papers)
Other Related Docs
46. National and Subnational Mortality of Urological Cancers in Iran, 1990–2015, Asia-Pacific Journal of Clinical Oncology (2019)