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Measuring Progress and Projecting Attainment on the Basis of Past Trends of the Health-Related Sustainable Development Goals in 188 Countries: An Analysis From the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016 Publisher Pubmed



Fullman N1 ; Barber RM1 ; Abajobir AA7 ; Abate KH10 ; Abbafati C11 ; Abbas KM12 ; Abdallah F13 ; Abdulle AM14 ; Abera SF15, 19 ; Aboyans V20 ; Aburaddad LJ21 ; Aburmeileh NME22 ; Adedeji IA23 ; Adetokunboh O24 Show All Authors
Authors
  1. Fullman N1
  2. Barber RM1
  3. Abajobir AA7
  4. Abate KH10
  5. Abbafati C11
  6. Abbas KM12
  7. Abdallah F13
  8. Abdulle AM14
  9. Abera SF15, 19
  10. Aboyans V20
  11. Aburaddad LJ21
  12. Aburmeileh NME22
  13. Adedeji IA23
  14. Adetokunboh O24
  15. Afshin A1
  16. Agrawal A25, 26
  17. Agrawal S30
  18. Kiadaliri AA30
  19. Ahmadieh H31, 34, 35
  20. Ahmed MB9
  21. Aichour AN36
  22. Aichour I37
  23. Aichour MTE38
  24. Aiyar S1
  25. Akinyemi RO39, 40
  26. Akseer N41, 42
  27. Alaly Z44, 45
  28. Alam K46, 51, 54
  29. Alam N55
  30. Alasfoor D56
  31. Alene KA57, 59
  32. Alizadehnavaei R60
  33. Alkerwi A61
  34. Alla F62
  35. Allebeck P63
  36. Allen C1
  37. Alraddadi R67
  38. Alsharif U68
  39. Altirkawi KA69
  40. Alvisguzman N70
  41. Amare AT71, 74
  42. Amini E75, 76
  43. Ammar W87
  44. Antonio CAT88
  45. Ansari H90, 91
  46. Anwari P92
  47. Arora M1
  48. Artaman A93
  49. Aryal KK94, 95
  50. Asayesh H96
  51. Asgedom SW19
  52. Assadi R97
  53. Atey TM19
  54. Atre SR98, 100
  55. Avilaburgos L102
  56. Arthur Avokpaho EFG102, 103
  57. Awasthi A104
  58. Azzopardi P46, 47, 105, 106
  59. Bacha U107
  60. Badawi A43, 108
  61. Balakrishnan K109
  62. Bannick MS1
  63. Barac A111
  64. Barkercollo SL112, 113
  65. Barnighausen T114, 117, 118, 119
  66. Barrero LH120
  67. Basu S121
  68. Battle KE122
  69. Baune BT71
  70. Beardsley J128
  71. Bedi N129
  72. Beghi E151
  73. Bejot Y130
  74. Bell ML131
  75. Bennett DA124
  76. Bennett JR1
  77. Bensenor IM133
  78. Berhane A134
  79. Berhe DF16, 136
  80. Bernabe E139
  81. Betsu BD19
  82. Beuran M140, 141
  83. Beyene AS142
  84. Bhala N144, 145
  85. Bhansali A146
  86. Bhatt S147
  87. Bhutta ZA41, 150
  88. Bikbov B151
  89. Bilal AI152
  90. Birungi C156
  91. Biryukov S1
  92. Bizuayehu HM158
  93. Blosser CD5
  94. Boneya DJ157
  95. Bose D159
  96. Bouorm IR87
  97. Brauer M1, 160
  98. Breitborde NJK161
  99. Brugha TS162
  100. Bulto LNB143
  101. Butt ZA163
  102. Cahuanahurtado L102
  103. Cameron E123
  104. Campuzano JC102
  105. Carabin H164
  106. Cardenas R165
  107. Carrero JJ64
  108. Carter A1
  109. Casey DC1
  110. Castanedaorjuela CA166, 167
  111. Rivas JC168, 169
  112. Castro RE170
  113. Catalalopez F171, 172
  114. Cercy K1
  115. Chang HY173, 174
  116. Chang JC175
  117. Charlson FJ1, 7, 176
  118. Chew A1
  119. Chisumpa VH177, 178
  120. Chitheer AA179
  121. Christensen H180
  122. Christopher DJ181
  123. Cirillo M182
  124. Cooper C125, 183, 184
  125. Criqui MH185
  126. Cromwell EA1
  127. Crump JA186
  128. Dandona L1, 30
  129. Dandona R1, 30
  130. Dargan PI188
  131. Das Neves J189
  132. Davitoiu DV140
  133. De Courten B195
  134. De Steur H196
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  177. Franklin RC230
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  183. Garciabasteiro AL235, 236
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  186. Geleto A143, 238
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  192. Giref AZ154
  193. Gishu MD143, 243
  194. Giussani G244
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  196. Godwin WW1
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  198. Gona PN245
  199. Goodridge A246
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  202. Griswold M1
  203. Gugnani HC249
  204. Gupta R250
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  212. Hankey GJ257, 258, 259
  213. Harb HL87
  214. Hareri HA154
  215. Hassanvand MS78
  216. Havmoeller R66
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  218. Hay SI1, 123
  219. He J1
  220. Hendrie D260
  221. Henry NJ1
  222. Herediapi IB102
  223. Hoek HW135, 262, 263
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  226. Hosgood HD252
  227. Hostiuc S140
  228. Hoy DG265
  229. Hsairi M266
  230. Htet AS95, 267
  231. Huang H268
  232. Huang JJ131
  233. Huynh C1
  234. Iburg KM270
  235. Ikeda C1
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  239. Jahanmehr N32
  240. Jakovljevic MB4, 273
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  245. John D277
  246. Johnson CO1
  247. Johnson SC1
  248. Jonas JB278
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  250. Kabir Z280
  251. Kadel R281
  252. Kahsay A19
  253. Kamal R282
  254. Karch A283, 284
  255. Karema CK232, 285
  256. Kasaeian A77, 79
  257. Kassebaum NJ1, 286
  258. Kastor A208
  259. Katikireddi SV287
  260. Kawakami N288
  261. Keiyoro PN290, 291
  262. Kelbore SG154
  263. Kemmer L1
  264. Kengne AP293, 295
  265. Kesavachandran CN282
  266. Khader YS296
  267. Khalil IA1
  268. Khan EA297
  269. Khang YH298, 299
  270. Khosravi A76, 300
  271. Khubchandani J301
  272. Kieling C209, 302
  273. Kim D303
  274. Kim JY1
  275. Kim YJ304
  276. Kimokoti RW305
  277. Kinfu Y306
  278. Kisa A307
  279. Kissimovaskarbek KA309
  280. Kivimaki M155, 310
  281. Kokubo Y313
  282. Kopec JA160
  283. Kosen S314
  284. Koul PA315
  285. Koyanagi A316
  286. Kravchenko M317
  287. Krohn KJ1
  288. Defo BK318
  289. Bicer BK319
  290. Kulikoff XR1
  291. Kumar GA30
  292. Kutz MJ1
  293. Kyu HH1
  294. Lal DK30
  295. Lalloo R7
  296. Lansingh VC320, 321
  297. Larsson A322
  298. Lazarus JV323, 324
  299. Lee PH326, 327
  300. Leigh J54
  301. Leung J5, 7
  302. Leung R328
  303. Levi M329
  304. Li Y330
  305. Liben ML331
  306. Linn S332
  307. Liu PY1
  308. Liu S333
  309. Lodha R334
  310. Looker KJ335
  311. Lopez AD48
  312. Lorkowski S336, 339
  313. Lotufo PA133
  314. Lozano R1, 101
  315. Lucas TCD123
  316. Lunevicius R337, 338
  317. Mackay MT51, 340
  318. Maddison ER1
  319. El Razek HMA341
  320. El Razek MMA342
  321. Majdan M343
  322. Majdzadeh R80, 344
  323. Majeed A148
  324. Malekzadeh R82
  325. Malhotra R334
  326. Malta DC345
  327. Mamun AA346
  328. Manguerra H1
  329. Mantovani LG347
  330. Manyazewal T348
  331. Mapoma CC177
  332. Marks GB53
  333. Martin RV350
  334. Martinezraga J351, 352
  335. Martinsmelo FR353
  336. Martopullo I1
  337. Mathur MR30, 156
  338. Mazidi M354
  339. Mcalinden C355, 356
  340. Mcgaughey M1
  341. Mcgrath JJ269, 357, 358
  342. Mckee M360
  343. Mehata S361
  344. Mehndiratta MM362
  345. Meier T363
  346. Meles KG15
  347. Memish ZA364, 365
  348. Mendoza W366
  349. Mengesha MM142
  350. Mengistie MA10
  351. Mensah GA367
  352. Mensink GBM368
  353. Mereta ST10
  354. Meretoja A49, 369
  355. Meretoja TJ312, 370
  356. Mezgebe HB19
  357. Micha R371, 372
  358. Millear A1
  359. Miller TR261, 374
  360. Minnig S1
  361. Mirarefin M1, 375
  362. Mirrakhimov EM376, 377
  363. Misganaw A1
  364. Mishra SR8, 359, 378
  365. Mitchell PB199
  366. Mohammad KA379, 380
  367. Mohammed KE17
  368. Mohammed S119, 381
  369. Mohan MBV383
  370. Mokdad AH1
  371. Mollenkopf SK1
  372. Monasta L384
  373. Hernandez JCM101
  374. Montico M384
  375. Moradilakeh M385
  376. Moraga P386
  377. Morawska L387
  378. Morrison SD5
  379. Moses MW1
  380. Mountjoyvenning C1
  381. Mueller UO389
  382. Muller K1
  383. Murthy GVS28, 360
  384. Musa KI390
  385. Naghavi M1
  386. Naheed A391
  387. Naidoo KS394
  388. Nangia V395
  389. Natarajan G396
  390. Negoi I140, 141
  391. Negoi RI140
  392. Nguyen CT203
  393. Nguyen G1
  394. Nguyen M1
  395. Nguyen QL203
  396. Nguyen TH203
  397. Nichols E1
  398. Ningrum DNA397, 398
  399. Nomura M399
  400. Nong VM203
  401. Norheim OF401
  402. Noubiap JJN295, 402
  403. Obermeyer CM403
  404. Ogbo FA404
  405. Oh IH406
  406. Oladimeji O407
  407. Olagunju AT72, 408, 409
  408. Olagunju TO410, 412
  409. Olivares PR413
  410. Olsen HE1
  411. Olusanya BO414
  412. Olusanya JO414
  413. Ong K1
  414. Oren E415
  415. Ortiz A416
  416. Owolabi MO417, 418
  417. Mahesh PA419
  418. Pana A420
  419. Panda BK208
  420. Pandajonas S421
  421. Papachristou C422
  422. Park EK423
  423. Patton GC47
  424. Paulson K1
  425. Pereira DM190
  426. Perico DN151
  427. Pesudovs K424
  428. Petzold M425, 426
  429. Phillips MR427, 428
  430. Pigott DM1
  431. Pillay JD429
  432. Pinho C1
  433. Piradov MA317
  434. Pishgar F75, 76
  435. Poulton RG187
  436. Pourmalek F160
  437. Qorbani M430
  438. Radfar A431
  439. Rafay A432, 433
  440. Rao PC1
  441. Rahimimovaghar V83
  442. Rahman M51, 434
  443. Ur Rahman MH208
  444. Rahman MA435
  445. Rai RK436
  446. Rajsic S437
  447. Ram U208
  448. Ranabhat CL438, 439
  449. Rawaf S149
  450. Reidy P1
  451. Reinig N1
  452. Reitsma MB1
  453. Remuzzi G151, 440, 441
  454. Renzaho AMN405
  455. Resnikoff S198
  456. Rezaei S442
  457. Blancas MJR101
  458. Roba KT143
  459. Rojasrueda D443
  460. Rokni MB86
  461. Roshandel G82, 444
  462. Roth GA1
  463. Roy A334
  464. Rubagotti E445
  465. Sadat N1
  466. Safdarian M83
  467. Safi S33
  468. Safiri S446
  469. Sagar R334
  470. Salama J1
  471. Salomon JA114
  472. Samy AM447
  473. Sanabria JR448, 450, 451
  474. Santomauro D1, 7, 176
  475. Santos IS132
  476. Santos JV191, 452
  477. Santric Milicevic MM110
  478. Sartorius B292, 392, 459
  479. Satpathy M453
  480. Sawhney M449
  481. Saxena S149
  482. Saylan MI454
  483. Shirude S1
  484. Schmidt MI209
  485. Schneider IJC455
  486. Schneider MT1
  487. Schottker B456, 457
  488. Schutte AE458, 460
  489. Schwebel DC461
  490. Schwendicke F462
  491. Seedat S24
  492. Sepanlou SG82
  493. Servanmori EE101
  494. Shackelford KA1
  495. Shaheen A463
  496. Shahraz S464
  497. Shaikh MA465
  498. Shamsipour M84
  499. Shamsizadeh M466
  500. Islam SMS391, 467
  501. Sharma J468
  502. Sharma R469
  503. She J470
  504. Shi P373
  505. Shibuya K289
  506. Shields C1
  507. Shiferaw MS143
  508. Shigematsu M471, 472
  509. Shin MJ473
  510. Shiri R311
  511. Shirkoohi R85
  512. Shishani K475, 476
  513. Shoman H149
  514. Shrime MG477
  515. Silberberg DH478
  516. Silva DAS479, 480
  517. Silva JP192
  518. Singh JA461
  519. Singh V481
  520. Sinha DN482, 483
  521. Skiadaresi E484, 485
  522. Slepak EL1
  523. Sligar A1
  524. Smith A1
  525. Smith DL1
  526. Smith M1
  527. Sobaih BHA69, 486
  528. Sobngwi E487, 488
  529. Soljak M148
  530. Soneji S489
  531. Sorensen RJD1
  532. Sposato LA411
  533. Sreeramareddy CT490
  534. Srinivasan V1
  535. Stanaway JD1
  536. Stein DJ294, 491
  537. Steiner C1
  538. Steinke S492
  539. Stokes MA493
  540. Strub B1
  541. Sufiyan MB382
  542. Abdulkader RS494
  543. Sunguya BF495
  544. Sur PJ1
  545. Swaminathan S496
  546. Sykes BL497
  547. Sylte DO1
  548. Szoeke CEI50
  549. Tabaresseisdedos R171
  550. Tadakamadla SK498
  551. Tandon N334
  552. Tao T1
  553. Tarekegn YL348
  554. Tavakkoli M499
  555. Taveira N500, 501
  556. Tegegne TK158
  557. Shifa GT154, 213
  558. Terkawi AS502, 503, 504
  559. Tessema GA58, 73
  560. Thakur JS506
  561. Thankappan KR507
  562. Thrift AG193, 194
  563. Tiruye TY158
  564. Tobegai R508
  565. Topormadry R308, 509
  566. Torre A1
  567. Tortajada M351, 510
  568. Tran BX99, 511
  569. Troeger C1
  570. Truelsen T325
  571. Tsoi D1
  572. Tuem KB18
  573. Tuzcu EM505
  574. Tyrovolas S512
  575. Ukwaja KN513
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  578. Uthman OA515
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  590. Wadilo F523
  591. Wakayo T10
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  593. Wang YP526
  594. Weichenthal S527
  595. Weiderpass E64, 528, 529, 530
  596. Weintraub RG46, 51, 531
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  600. Whiteford HA1, 6, 176
  601. Wijeratne T51, 533
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  609. Yakob B393
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Source: The Lancet Published:2017


Abstract

Background: The UN's Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) are grounded in the global ambition of leaving no one behind. Understanding today's gains and gaps for the health-related SDGs is essential for decision makers as they aim to improve the health of populations. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016), we measured 37 of the 50 health-related SDG indicators over the period 1990-2016 for 188 countries, and then on the basis of these past trends, we projected indicators to 2030. Methods: We used standardised GBD 2016 methods to measure 37 health-related indicators from 1990 to 2016, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2015. We substantially revised the universal health coverage (UHC) measure, which focuses on coverage of essential health services, to also represent personal health-care access and quality for several non-communicable diseases. We transformed each indicator on a scale of 0-100, with 0 as the 25th percentile estimated between 1990 and 2030, and 100 as the 975th percentile during that time. An index representing all 37 health-related SDG indicators was constructed by taking the geometric mean of scaled indicators by target. On the basis of past trends, we produced projections of indicator values, using a weighted average of the indicator and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2016 with weights for each annual rate of change based on out-of-sample validity. 24 of the currently measured health-related SDG indicators have defined SDG targets, against which we assessed attainment. Findings Globally, the median health-related SDG index was 567 (IQR 319-668) in 2016 and country-level performance markedly varied, with Singapore (868, 95% uncertainty interval 846-889), Iceland (860, 841-876), and Sweden (856, 818-878) having the highest levels in 2016 and Afghanistan (109, 96-119), the Central African Republic (110, 88-138), and Somalia (113, 95-131) recording the lowest. Between 2000 and 2016, notable improvements in the UHC index were achieved by several countries, including Cambodia, Rwanda, Equatorial Guinea, Laos, Turkey, and China; however, a number of countries, such as Lesotho and the Central African Republic, but also high-income countries, such as the USA, showed minimal gains. Based on projections of past trends, the median number of SDG targets attained in 2030 was five (IQR 2-8) of the 24 defined targets currently measured. Globally, projected target attainment considerably varied by SDG indicator, ranging from more than 60% of countries projected to reach targets for under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria, to less than 5% of countries projected to achieve targets linked to 11 indicator targets, including those for childhood overweight, tuberculosis, and road injury mortality. For several of the health-related SDGs, meeting defined targets hinges upon substantially faster progress than what most countries have achieved in the past. Interpretation GBD 2016 provides an updated and expanded evidence base on where the world currently stands in terms of the health-related SDGs. Our improved measure of UHC offers a basis to monitor the expansion of health services necessary to meet the SDGs. Based on past rates of progress, many places are facing challenges in meeting defined health-related SDG targets, particularly among countries that are the worst off. In view of the early stages of SDG implementation, however, opportunity remains to take actions to accelerate progress, as shown by the catalytic effects of adopting the Millennium Development Goals after 2000. With the SDGs' broader, bolder development agenda, multisectoral commitments and investments are vital to make the health-related SDGs within reach of all populations. Copyright © 2018 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.
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