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Incidence and Predictors of Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus During 17 Years of Follow-Up in the Golestan Cohort Study Publisher Pubmed



Mirzamohamadi S1 ; Hajiabbasi MN2 ; Roshandel G3 ; Ghorbani S4 ; Badrkhahan SZ5, 6 ; Makhtoumi M7 ; Zahedi M8
Authors
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Authors Affiliations
  1. 1. Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
  2. 2. Isfahan University of Medical Sciences, Isfahan, Iran
  3. 3. Golestan Research Center of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Golestan University of Medical Sciences, Gorgan, Iran
  4. 4. Cancer Research Center, Golestan University of Medical Sciences, Gorgan, Iran
  5. 5. Department of Geriatric Medicine, Tehran University of Medical Sciences (TUMS), Tehran, Iran
  6. 6. Cardiac Primary Prevention Research Center, Cardiovascular Disease Research Institute, Tehran Heart Center (THC), Tehran University of Medical Sciences (TUMS), Tehran, Iran
  7. 7. Golestan University of Medical Sciences, Gorgan, Iran
  8. 8. Department of Internal medicine, Endocrinology and Metabolic disorders, Clinical Research Development Unit (CRDU), Sayad Shirazi Hospital, Golestan University of Medical Sciences, Gorgan, Iran

Source: Scientific Reports Published:2025


Abstract

In this study, we aimed to determine the incidence and predictors of type 2 Diabetes Mellitus (T2DM) in the Golestan Cohort Study (GCS). This study is a prospective population-based cohort study conducted in the Golestan province of Iran with the participation of 50,044 people aged 30 to 87 years between 2004 and 2008. Participants were followed up for 17 years for T2DM. The cumulative incidence of T2DM was 13.32% in the GCS. We observed hypertension (HTN) and dyslipidemia (DLP) increased the risk of T2DM 1.16 and 1.63 times relative to the healthy participants (RR: 1.16, 1.63, 95% CI : 1.102–1.222, 1.393–1.928, p < 0.001). For every one-unit increase in the body mass index (BMI), the risk of T2DM increased 1.09 times (RR: 1.09, 95% CI :1.086–1.106, p < 0.001). High-risk waist circumference (WC) increased the risk of T2DM by 1.89 times more than normal WC (RR: 1.89, 95% CI : 1.756–2.053, p < 0.001). Smokers had an 89% lower risk of T2DM than non-smokers (RR: 0.897, 95% CI : 0.814–0.989, p = 0.029). We conclude that environmental factors induce T2DM by affecting body fat. Also, other metabolic diseases could develop T2DM. © The Author(s) 2025.
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