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Cancer in Iran 2008 to 2025: Recent Incidence Trends and Short-Term Predictions of the Future Burden Publisher Pubmed



Roshandel G1, 2 ; Ferlay J3 ; Ghanbarimotlagh A4 ; Partovipour E2 ; Salavati F2 ; Aryan K1 ; Mohammadi G5 ; Khoshaabi M2 ; Sadjadi A6 ; Davanlou M7 ; Asgari F2 ; Abadi H8 ; Aghaei A9 ; Ahmaditabatabaei SV10 Show All Authors
Authors
  1. Roshandel G1, 2
  2. Ferlay J3
  3. Ghanbarimotlagh A4
  4. Partovipour E2
  5. Salavati F2
  6. Aryan K1
  7. Mohammadi G5
  8. Khoshaabi M2
  9. Sadjadi A6
  10. Davanlou M7
  11. Asgari F2
  12. Abadi H8
  13. Aghaei A9
  14. Ahmaditabatabaei SV10
  15. Alizadehbarzian K11
  16. Asgari A12
  17. Asgari N13
  18. Azami S14
  19. Cheraghi M15
  20. Enferadi F16
  21. Eslaminasab M17
  22. Fakhery J18
  23. Farahani M19
  24. Farrokhzad S20
  25. Fateh M21
  26. Ghasemi A22
  27. Ghasemikebria F1
  28. Gholami H23
  29. Golpazir A24
  30. Hasanpourheidari S1
  31. Hazar N25
  32. Hoseinihoshyar H26
  33. Izadi M27
  34. Jahantigh M28
  35. Jalilvand A29
  36. Jazayeri SM30
  37. Kazemzadeh Y31
  38. Khajavi M32
  39. Khalednejad M33
  40. Khanloghi M34
  41. Kooshki M35
  42. Madani A36
  43. Mirheidari M37
  44. Mohammadifar H38
  45. Moinfar Z39
  46. Mojtahedzadeh Y40
  47. Morsali A41
  48. Motidostkomleh R42
  49. Mousavi T43
  50. Narooei M44
  51. Nasiri M45
  52. Niksiar S46
  53. Pabaghi M47
  54. Pirnejad H48
  55. Pournajaf A49
  56. Pourshahi G50
  57. Rahnama A51
  58. Rashidpoor B52
  59. Ravankhah Z53
  60. Rezaei K54
  61. Rezaianzadeh A55
  62. Sadeghi G56
  63. Salehifar M57
  64. Shahdadi A58
  65. Shahi M59
  66. Sharifimoghaddam F60
  67. Sherafati R61
  68. Soleimani A62
  69. Soltanyhojatabad M63
  70. Somi MH64
  71. Yadolahi S65
  72. Yaghoubiashrafi M66
  73. Zareiyan A67
  74. Poustchi H6
  75. Zendehdel K68
  76. Ostovar A69
  77. Janbabaei G70
  78. Raeisi A71
  79. Weiderpass E72
  80. Malekzadeh R6
  81. Bray F3
Show Affiliations
Authors Affiliations
  1. 1. Golestan Research Center of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Golestan University of Medical Sciences, Gorgan, Iran
  2. 2. Iranian National Population-Based Cancer Registry Secretariat, Cancer Office, Deputy of Health, Ministry of Health, Tehran, Iran
  3. 3. Cancer Surveillance Branch, International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC), World Health Organization (WHO), Lyon, France
  4. 4. National Cancer Management Committee, Deputy of Health, Ministry of Health, Tehran, Iran
  5. 5. Cancer Research Center, Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
  6. 6. Digestive Oncology Research Center, Digestive Disease Research Institute, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
  7. 7. Pathobiology Laboratory, Bahman Hospital, Tehran, Iran
  8. 8. Booshehr Cancer Registry, Booshehr University of Medical Sciences, Booshehr, Iran
  9. 9. Cancer and Immunology Research Center, Research Institute for Health Development, Kurdistan University of Medical Sciences, Sanandaj, Iran
  10. 10. Kerman Cancer Registry, Kerman University of Medical Sciences, Kerman, Iran
  11. 11. Behbahan Cancer Registry, Behbahan Faculty of Medical Sciences, Behbahan, Iran
  12. 12. Shahrekoord Cancer Registry, Shahrekoord University of Medical Sciences, Shahrekoord, Iran
  13. 13. Zabol Cancer Registry, Zabol University of Medical Sciences, Zabol, Iran
  14. 14. Saveh Cancer Registry, Saveh Faculty of Medical Sciences, Saveh, Iran
  15. 15. Cancer Research Center, Cancer Registry Section, Ahvaz Jundishapur University of Medical Sciences, Ahvaz, Iran
  16. 16. Khorasan-North Cancer Registry, Khorasan-North University of Medical Sciences, Bojnord, Iran
  17. 17. Sirjan Cancer Registry, Sirjan Faculty of Medical Sciences, Sirjan, Iran
  18. 18. Khoy Cancer Registry, Khoy Faculty of Medical Sciences, Khoy, Iran
  19. 19. Arak Cancer Registry, Arak University of Medical Sciences, Arak, Iran
  20. 20. Qazvin Cancer Registry, Qazvin University of Medical Sciences, Qazvin, Iran
  21. 21. Center for Health Related Social and Behavioral Sciences Research, Shahroud University of Medical Sciences, Shahrood, Iran
  22. 22. Birjand Cancer Registry, Birjand University of Medical Sciences, Birjand, Iran
  23. 23. Ardabil Cancer Registry, Ardabil University of Medical Sciences, Ardabil, Iran
  24. 24. Kermanshah Cancer Registry, Kermanshah University of Medical Sciences, Kermanshah, Iran
  25. 25. Department of Community Medicine, School of Medicine, Shahid Sadoughi University of Medical Sciences, Yazd, Iran
  26. 26. Sabzevar Cancer Registry, Sabzevar University of Medical Sciences, Sabzevar, Iran
  27. 27. Gerash Cancer Registry, Gerash Faculty of Medical Sciences, Gerash, Iran
  28. 28. Zahedan Cancer Registry, Zahedan University of Medical Sciences, Zahedan, Iran
  29. 29. Zanjan Cancer Registry, Zanjan University of Medical Sciences, Zanjan, Iran
  30. 30. Kashan Cancer Registry, Kashan University of Medical Sciences, Kashan, Iran
  31. 31. Khomein Cancer Registry, Khomein Faculty of Medical Sciences, Khomein, Iran
  32. 32. Dezful Cancer Registry, Dezful University of Medical Sciences, Dezful, Iran
  33. 33. Alborz Cancer Registry, Alborz University of Medical Sciences, Karaj, Iran
  34. 34. Nishabour Cancer Registry, Nishabour Faculty of Medical Sciences, Nishabour, Iran
  35. 35. Lorestan Cancer Registry, Lorestan University of Medical Sciences, Khoramabad, Iran
  36. 36. Abadan Cancer Registry, Abadan Faculty of Medical Sciences, Abadan, Iran
  37. 37. Qom Cancer Registry, Qom University of Medical Sciences, Qom, Iran
  38. 38. Fasa Cancer Registry, Fasa University of Medical Sciences, Fasa, Iran
  39. 39. Tehran Cancer Registry, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
  40. 40. Bam Cancer Registry, Bam University of Medical Sciences, Bam, Iran
  41. 41. Asadabad Cancer Registry, Asadabad Faculty of Medical Sciences, Asadabad, Iran
  42. 42. Iran Cancer Registry, Iran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
  43. 43. Babol Cancer Registry, Babol University of Medical Sciences, Babol, Iran
  44. 44. Iranshahr Cancer Registry, Iranshahr University of Medical Sciences, Iranshahr, Iran
  45. 45. Shooshtar Cancer Registry, Shooshtar Faculty of Medical Sciences, Shooshtar, Iran
  46. 46. Hamedan Cancer Registry, Hamedan University of Medical Sciences, Hamedan, Iran
  47. 47. Larestan Cancer Registry, Larestan Faculty of Medical Sciences, Lar, Iran
  48. 48. Patient Safety Research Center, Clinical Research Institute, Urmia University of Medical Sciences, Urmia, Iran
  49. 49. Ilam Cancer Registry, Ilam University of Medical Sciences, Ilam, Iran
  50. 50. Torbatejam Cancer Registry, Torbatejam Faculty of Medical Sciences, Torbatejam, Iran
  51. 51. Rafsanjan Cancer Registry, Rafsanjan University of Medical Sciences, Rafsanjan, Iran
  52. 52. Yasoj Cancer Registry, Yasoj University of Medical Sciences, Yasoj, Iran
  53. 53. Esfahan Cancer Registry, Esfahan University of Medical Sciences, Esfahan, Iran
  54. 54. Mashhad Cancer Registry, Mashhad University of Medical Sciences, Mashhad, Iran
  55. 55. Shiraz Cancer Registry, Shiraz University of Medical Sciences, Shiraz, Iran
  56. 56. Guilan Cancer Registry, Guilan University of Medical Sciences, Rasht, Iran
  57. 57. Torbateheidarieh Cancer Registry, Torbateheidarieh University of Medical Sciences, Torbatheidarieh, Iran
  58. 58. Jiroft Cancer Registry, Jiroft University of Medical Sciences, Jiroft, Iran
  59. 59. Hormozgan Cancer Registry, Hormozgan University of Medical Sciences, Bandar Abbas, Iran
  60. 60. Gonabad Cancer Registry, Gonabad University of Medical Sciences, Gonabad, Iran
  61. 61. Sarab Cancer Registry, Sarab Faculty of Medical Sciences, Sarab, Iran
  62. 62. Maragheh Cancer Registry, Maragheh Faculty of Medical Sciences, Maragheh, Iran
  63. 63. Esfarayen Cancer Registry, Esfarayen Faculty of Medical Sciences, Esfarayen, Iran
  64. 64. Liver and Gastrointestinal Diseases Research Center, Tabriz University of Medical Sciences, Tabriz, Iran
  65. 65. Semnan Cancer Registry, Semnan University of Medical Sciences, Semnan, Iran
  66. 66. Mazandaran Cancer Registry, Mazandaran University of Medical Sciences, Sari, Iran
  67. 67. Jahrom Cancer Registry, Jahrom University of Medical Sciences, Jahrom, Iran
  68. 68. Cancer Research Center, Cancer Institute of Iran, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
  69. 69. Osteoporosis Research Center, Endocrinology and Metabolism Clinical Sciences Institute, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
  70. 70. Deputy Minister of Treatment, Ministry of Health, Tehran, Iran
  71. 71. Deputy Minister of Health, Ministry of Health, Tehran, Iran
  72. 72. Office of the Director, International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC), Lyon, France

Source: International Journal of Cancer Published:2021


Abstract

Policymakers require estimates of the future number of cancer patients in order to allocate finite resources to cancer prevention, treatment and palliative care. We examine recent cancer incidence trends in Iran and present predicted incidence rates and new cases for the entire country for the year 2025. We developed a method for approximating population-based incidence from the pathology-based data series available nationally for the years 2008 to 2013, and augmented this with data from the Iranian National Population-based Cancer Registry (INPCR) for the years 2014 to 2016. We fitted time-linear age-period models to the recent incidence trends to quantify the future cancer incidence burden to the year 2025, delineating the contribution of changes due to risk and those due to demographic change. The number of new cancer cases is predicted to increase in Iran from 112 000 recorded cases in 2016 to an estimated 160 000 in 2025, a 42.6% increase, of which 13.9% and 28.7% were attributed to changes in risk and population structure, respectively. In terms of specific cancers, the greatest increases in cases are predicted for thyroid (113.8%), prostate (66.7%), female breast (63.0%) and colorectal cancer (54.1%). Breast, colorectal and stomach cancers were the most common cancers in Iran in 2016 and are predicted to remain the leading cancers nationally in 2025. The increasing trends in incidence of most common cancers in Iran reinforce the need for the tailored design and implementation of effective national cancer control programs across the country. © 2021 Union for International Cancer Control.
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