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Global, Regional, and National Mortality Among Young People Aged 10–24 Years, 1950–2019: A Systematic Analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 Publisher Pubmed



Ward JL1 ; Azzopardi PS5, 6 ; Francis KL7 ; Santelli JS9, 12 ; Skirbekk V13 ; Sawyer SM14, 15 ; Kassebaum NJ16, 17, 18 ; Mokdad AH17, 18 ; Hay SI17, 18 ; Abdallah F20 ; Abdoli A23 ; Abdollahi M24, 25 ; Abedi A42 ; Abolhassani H26, 44 Show All Authors
Authors
  1. Ward JL1
  2. Azzopardi PS5, 6
  3. Francis KL7
  4. Santelli JS9, 12
  5. Skirbekk V13
  6. Sawyer SM14, 15
  7. Kassebaum NJ16, 17, 18
  8. Mokdad AH17, 18
  9. Hay SI17, 18
  10. Abdallah F20
  11. Abdoli A23
  12. Abdollahi M24, 25
  13. Abedi A42
  14. Abolhassani H26, 44
  15. Abreu LG45
  16. Abrigo MRM47
  17. Abugharbieh E48
  18. Abushouk AI51, 57
  19. Adebayo OM59
  20. Adekanmbi V62
  21. Adham D63
  22. Advani SM64, 65
  23. Afshari K27, 66
  24. Agrawal A67, 68
  25. Ahmad T69
  26. Ahmadi K70
  27. Ahmed AE71
  28. Aji B72
  29. Akombiinyang B73
  30. Alahdab F77
  31. Alaly Z78, 79
  32. Alam K80
  33. Alanezi FM85
  34. Alanzi TM81
  35. Alcalderabanal JE86
  36. Alemu BW89, 92
  37. Alhajj S93, 94
  38. Alhassan RK95
  39. Ali S96
  40. Alicandro G97
  41. Alijanzadeh M98
  42. Aljunid SM101, 102
  43. Almasihashiani A103
  44. Almasri NA108
  45. Almekhlafi HM109, 110, 111
  46. Alonso J112, 113
  47. Alraddadi RM114
  48. Altirkawi KA115
  49. Alvisguzman N116, 117
  50. Amare AT118, 121
  51. Amini S104
  52. Aminorroaya A28, 29
  53. Amit AML123, 124
  54. Amugsi DA127
  55. Ancuceanu R128
  56. Anderlini D135, 136
  57. Andrei CL129
  58. Androudi S137
  59. Ansari F138, 145
  60. Ansari I146
  61. Antonio CAT125, 147
  62. Anvari D148, 150
  63. Anwer R151
  64. Appiah SCY153, 154
  65. Arabloo J155
  66. Arabzozani M162
  67. Arnlov J164, 169
  68. Asaad M170
  69. Asadialiabadi M156
  70. Asadipooya AA171, 177
  71. Atout MMW178
  72. Ausloos M179, 181
  73. Avenyo EK182, 186
  74. Avilaburgos L86
  75. Quintanilla BPA187
  76. Ayano G190
  77. Aynalem YA192
  78. Azari S155
  79. Azene ZN193
  80. Bakhshaei MH196
  81. Bakkannavar SM197
  82. Banach M202, 203
  83. Banik PC204
  84. Barboza MA205, 206
  85. Barkercollo SL207
  86. Barnighausen TW52, 208
  87. Basu S53, 210
  88. Baune BT214, 216
  89. Bayati M172
  90. Bedi N110, 217
  91. Beghi E218
  92. Bekuma TT220
  93. Bell AW54, 221
  94. Bell ML222, 776
  95. Benjet C223
  96. Bensenor IM224
  97. Berhe AK226
  98. Berhe K227
  99. Berman AE233
  100. Bhagavathula AS234, 235
  101. Bhardwaj N226
  102. Bhardwaj P237, 238
  103. Bhattacharyya K241, 242
  104. Bhattarai S243
  105. Bhutta ZA244, 245, 246
  106. Bijani A247
  107. Bikbov B250
  108. Biondi A251
  109. Birhanu TTM252, 692
  110. Biswas RK74
  111. Bohlouli S253
  112. Bolla SR254
  113. Boloor A255
  114. Borschmann R7, 259
  115. Boufous S74
  116. Bragazzi NL262
  117. Braithwaite D263, 264
  118. Breitborde NJK265, 266
  119. Brenner H268
  120. Britton GB269, 270
  121. Burns RA271
  122. Nagaraja SB272
  123. Butt ZA273, 274
  124. Santos FLCD275
  125. Camera LA276
  126. Camposnonato IR87
  127. Rincon JCC88, 279
  128. Cardenas R280
  129. Carreras G282
  130. Carrero JJ165
  131. Carvalho F283
  132. Castaldellimaia JM225
  133. Castanedaorjuela CA286
  134. Castelpietra G289, 290
  135. Catalalopez F291
  136. Cerin E293, 294
  137. Chandan JS298
  138. Chang HY299
  139. Chang JC300, 301
  140. Charan J239
  141. Chattu VK245, 302
  142. Chaturvedi S303
  143. Choi JYJ304
  144. Chowdhury MAK306
  145. Christopher DJ307
  146. Chu DT310
  147. Chung MT311
  148. Chung SC2, 311, 312
  149. Cicuttini FM313
  150. Constantin TV130
  151. Costa VM283
  152. Dahlawi SMA82
  153. Dai H316, 317
  154. Dai X16
  155. Damiani G318, 320
  156. Dandona L17, 325, 326
  157. Dandona R17, 18, 325
  158. Daneshpajouhnejad P327, 331
  159. Darwesh AM334
  160. Davilacervantes CA335
  161. Davletov K336
  162. Hoz FPDL288, 644
  163. Leo DD337
  164. Dervenis N338, 339
  165. Desai R340
  166. Desalew A341
  167. Deuba K166, 342
  168. Dharmaratne SD17, 18, 343
  169. Dhungana GP344
  170. Dianatinasab M173, 345
  171. Silva DDD283, 284, 708
  172. Diaz D346, 347
  173. Didarloo A348, 629
  174. Djalalinia S349
  175. Dorostkar F157
  176. Doshi CP43
  177. Doshmangir L139, 611
  178. Doyle KE350, 352
  179. Duraes AR353, 354
  180. Kalan ME142, 355
  181. Ebtehaj S356, 599
  182. Edvardsson D188, 357
  183. Tantawi ME358
  184. Elgendy IY55, 359
  185. Eljaafary SI20
  186. Elsharkawy A21
  187. Eshrati B156, 548
  188. Eskandarieh S30, 491
  189. Esmaeilnejad S361, 362, 492
  190. Esmaeilzadeh F365
  191. Esteghamati S31
  192. Faro A367, 489
  193. Farzadfar F28
  194. Fattahi N368
  195. Feigin VL17, 380, 382
  196. Ferede TY383, 461
  197. Fereshtehnejad SM167, 292, 384
  198. Fernandes E285, 463
  199. Ferrara P386
  200. Filip I387, 388
  201. Fischer F389
  202. Fisher JL267, 305, 363
  203. Foigt NA390
  204. Folayan MO391
  205. Fomenkov AA392
  206. Foroutan M393
  207. Fukumoto T394
  208. Gad MM395, 396, 397
  209. Gaidhane AM398
  210. Gallus S219
  211. Gebre T400
  212. Gebremedhin KB401
  213. Gebremeskel GG228, 402
  214. Gebremeskel L229, 403, 596
  215. Gebreslassie AA230
  216. Gesesew HA231, 404
  217. Ghadiri K369, 370
  218. Ghafourifard M140
  219. Ghamari F105, 287
  220. Ghashghaee A155, 158, 277
  221. Gilani SA405, 407
  222. Gnedovskaya EV381
  223. Godinho MA408
  224. Golechha M410
  225. Goli S412, 413
  226. Gona PN415
  227. Gopalani SV416, 417
  228. Gorini G281
  229. Grivna M235, 418
  230. Gubari MIM419
  231. Gugnani HC420, 421
  232. Guimaraes RA422
  233. Guo Y314, 423
  234. Gupta R424, 425
  235. Haagsma JA426
  236. Hafezinejad N32, 328
  237. Haile TG402
  238. Hajmirzaian A329, 427
  239. Hajmirzaian A329, 427
  240. Hall BJ432
  241. Hamadeh RR433
  242. Abdullah KH434
  243. Hamidi S436
  244. Handiso DW437
  245. Hanif A406
  246. Hankey GJ414, 438
  247. Haririan H144
  248. Haro JM439, 440
  249. Hasaballah AI441
  250. Hashi A442
  251. Hassan A20
  252. Hassanipour S443, 444
  253. Hassankhani H141, 445
  254. Hayat K446, 447
  255. Heidarisoureshjani R33
  256. Herteliu C181, 448
  257. Heydarpour F371
  258. Ho HC295
  259. Hole MK449
  260. Holla R198, 236
  261. Hoogar P199
  262. Hosseini M34, 35
  263. Hosseinzadeh M83, 155
  264. Hostiuc M131, 450
  265. Hostiuc S132
  266. Househ M451
  267. Hsairi M452
  268. Huda TM453, 455
  269. Humayun A456
  270. Hussain R457
  271. Hwang BF458
  272. Iavicoli I459
  273. Ibitoye SE460
  274. Ilesanmi OS60, 451
  275. Ilic IM464
  276. Ilic MD466
  277. Inbaraj LR468
  278. Intarut N469
  279. Iqbal U470
  280. Irvani SSN445
  281. Islam MM189
  282. Islam SMS453, 472
  283. Iso H474
  284. Ivers RQ73
  285. Jahani MA247
  286. Jakovljevic M467, 476
  287. Jalali A372, 373
  288. Janodia MD200
  289. Javaheri T477
  290. Jeemon P479
  291. Jenabi E480
  292. Jha RP484, 485
  293. Jha V201, 487
  294. Ji JS488, 490
  295. Jonas JB209, 495
  296. Jones KM380
  297. Joukar F443, 444
  298. Jozwiak JJ493
  299. Juliusson PB494, 495
  300. Jurisson M497
  301. Kabir A159
  302. Kabir Z498
  303. Kalankesh LR142
  304. Kalhor R99, 100
  305. Kamyari N481
  306. Kanchan T240
  307. Karch A215
  308. Karimi SE143
  309. Kaur S499
  310. Kayode GA500, 501
  311. Keiyoro PN502
  312. Khalid N506
  313. Khammarnia M507
  314. Khan M110, 508
  315. Khan MN110, 508
  316. Khatab K509, 510
  317. Khater MM22
  318. Khatib MN399
  319. Khayamzadeh M431, 511
  320. Khazaie H374
  321. Khoja AT152, 330
  322. Kieling C512, 513
  323. Kim YE514, 515
  324. Kim YJ514, 515
  325. Kimokoti RW516
  326. Kisa A517, 518
  327. Kisa S519
  328. Kivimaki M3, 520
  329. Koolivand A106
  330. Kosen S521
  331. Koyanagi A522, 523
  332. Krishan K524
  333. Kugbey N525
  334. Kumar GA325
  335. Kumar M4, 503
  336. Kumar N256
  337. Kurmi OP526, 527
  338. Kusuma D211, 530
  339. Vecchia CL319
  340. Lacey B183, 531
  341. Lal DK325
  342. Lalloo R532
  343. Lan Q535
  344. Landires I536, 538
  345. Lansingh VC539, 540
  346. Larsson AO541, 542
  347. Lasrado S543
  348. Lassi ZS119
  349. Lauriola P544
  350. Lee PH180
  351. Lee SWH545, 546
  352. Leigh J454
  353. Leonardi M547
  354. Leung J549
  355. Levi M550, 551
  356. Lewycka S184, 552
  357. Li B553
  358. Li MC554
  359. Li S555
  360. Lim LL555
  361. Lim SS556
  362. Liu X321, 396
  363. Lorkowski S557, 558
  364. Lotufo PA559
  365. Lunevicius R560, 561
  366. Maddison R472
  367. Mahasha PW563
  368. Mahdavi MM566
  369. Mahmoudi M567
  370. Majeed A212
  371. Maleki A36, 568
  372. Malekzadeh R37, 174
  373. Malta DC46
  374. Mamun AA571
  375. Mansouri B373
  376. Mansournia MA34
  377. Martinez G572
  378. Martinezraga J573, 574
  379. Martinsmelo FR575
  380. Masonjones AJ576
  381. Masoumi SZ482
  382. Mathur MR323, 562
  383. Maulik PK75, 486
  384. Mcgrath JJ533, 577
  385. Mehndiratta MM578, 579
  386. Mehri F580
  387. Memiah PTN581
  388. Mendoza W582
  389. Menezes RG583
  390. Mengesha EW122
  391. Meretoja A260, 583
  392. Meretoja TJ520, 584
  393. Mestrovic T585, 586
  394. Miazgowski B587
  395. Miazgowski T588
  396. Michalek IM590
  397. Miller TR190, 591
  398. Mini GK592, 593
  399. Mirica A181
  400. Mirrakhimov EM594, 595
  401. Mirzaei H396
  402. Mirzaei M375
  403. Moazen B208, 597
  404. Mohammad DK168, 598
  405. Mohammadi S568, 598
  406. Mohammadianhafshejani A600
  407. Mohammadifard N332
  408. Mohammadpourhodki R601
  409. Mohammed S604, 605
  410. Monasta L606
  411. Moradi G569, 570
  412. Moradilakeh M156
  413. Moradzadeh R103
  414. Moraga P607
  415. Morrison SD608
  416. Mosapour A248, 262
  417. Khaneghah AM609
  418. Mueller UO311, 612
  419. Muriithi MK504
  420. Murray CJL17, 18
  421. Muthupandian S232, 613
  422. Naderi M376
  423. Nagarajan AJ614, 615
  424. Naghavi M17, 18
  425. Naimzada MD616, 617
  426. Nangia V618
  427. Nayak VC197
  428. Nazari J107
  429. Ndejjo R619
  430. Negoi I133, 620
  431. Negoi RI134, 621
  432. Netsere HB194, 622
  433. Nguefacktsague G623
  434. Nguyen DN625, 626
  435. Nguyen HLT627
  436. Nie J628
  437. Ningrum DNA429, 471
  438. Nnaji CA565, 630
  439. Nomura S631, 632
  440. Noubiap JJ120
  441. Nowak C633
  442. Nunezsamudio V537, 538
  443. Ogbo FA351
  444. Oghenetega OB462
  445. Oh IH634
  446. Oladnabi M635
  447. Olagunju AT528, 636
  448. Olusanya BO637
  449. Olusanya JO637
  450. Bali AO435
  451. Omer MO442
  452. Onwujekwe OE638
  453. Ortiz A639, 640
  454. Otoiu A181
  455. Otstavnov N616
  456. Otstavnov SS616, 641
  457. Overland S496, 643
  458. Owolabi MO61, 463
  459. Padubidri JR198
  460. Pakshir K175
  461. Palladino R212, 459
  462. Pana A181, 645
  463. Pandajonas S209
  464. Pandey A324
  465. Panelo CIA126
  466. Park EK646
  467. Patten SB647
  468. Peden AE73, 648
  469. Pepito VCF649
  470. Peprah EK650
  471. Pereira J651
  472. Pesudovs K76
  473. Pham HQ627
  474. Phillips MR10, 652
  475. Piradov MA382
  476. Pirsaheb M368
  477. Postma MJ653, 654
  478. Pottoo FH84
  479. Pourjafar H366, 655
  480. Pourshams A37
  481. Prada SI656, 657
  482. Pupillo E658
  483. Syed ZQ218
  484. Rabiee MH659
  485. Rabiee N660
  486. Radfar A661
  487. Rafiee A662
  488. Raggi A547
  489. Rahim F38, 663
  490. Rahimimovaghar V39
  491. Rahman MHU188, 664, 665
  492. Rahman MA665
  493. Ramezanzadeh K427
  494. Ranabhat CL666, 667
  495. Rao SJ668
  496. Rashedi V160
  497. Rastogi P257
  498. Rathi P198
  499. Rawaf DL212, 669
  500. Rawaf S213, 670
  501. Rawal L671
  502. Rawassizadeh R478
  503. Renzaho AMN672, 673
  504. Rezaei N26, 674
  505. Rezaei N26, 674
  506. Rezai MS149
  507. Riahi SM163
  508. Rickard J675, 676
  509. Roever L677
  510. Ronfani L606
  511. Roth GA17, 18, 19
  512. Rubagotti E658, 678
  513. Rumisha SF679, 680
  514. Rwegerera GM681
  515. Sabour S429
  516. Sachdev PS409, 682
  517. Saddik B49
  518. Sadeghi E368
  519. Moghaddam SS28
  520. Sagar R683
  521. Sahebkar A602, 603
  522. Sahraian MA30
  523. Sajadi SM684, 685
  524. Salem MR686
  525. Salimzadeh H37
  526. Samy AM58
  527. Sanabria J322, 687
  528. Santricmilicevic MM464, 465
  529. Saraswathy SYI688, 689
  530. Sarrafzadegan N332, 690
  531. Sarveazad A161
  532. Sathish T529
  533. Sattin D547
  534. Saxena D398, 411
  535. Saxena S210
  536. Schiavolin S547
  537. Schwebel DC691
  538. Schwendicke F693
  539. Senthilkumaran S694
  540. Sepanlou SG37, 174
  541. Sha F695
  542. Shafaat O328, 333
  543. Shahabi S176
  544. Shaheen AA696
  545. Shaikh MA446, 697
  546. Shakiba S40
  547. Shamsi M377
  548. Shannawaz M698
  549. Sharafi K368
  550. Sheikh A56, 699
  551. Sheikhbahaei S328
  552. Shetty BSK257
  553. Shi P700
  554. Shigematsu M701
  555. Shin JI702
  556. Shiri R703
  557. Shuval K704, 705
  558. Siabani S378, 706
  559. Sigfusdottir ID11, 707
  560. Sigurvinsdottir R707
  561. Silva DAS284, 708
  562. Silva JP283
  563. Simonetti B709, 710
  564. Singh JA711
  565. Singh V712
  566. Sinke AH713
  567. Skryabin VY714
  568. Slater H191
  569. Smith EUR716, 717
  570. Sobhiyeh MR379
  571. Sobngwi E624, 718
  572. Soheili A719
  573. Somefun OD720
  574. Sorrie MB90
  575. Soyiri IN721
  576. Sreeramareddy CT722
  577. Stein DJ564
  578. Stokes MA473
  579. Sudaryanto A723
  580. Sultan I724, 725
  581. Tabaresseisdedos R726
  582. Tabuchi T727
  583. Tadakamadla SK728
  584. Taherkhani A483
  585. Tamiru AT195
  586. Tareque MI729
  587. Thankappan KR730
  588. Thapar R256
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  590. Titova MV731, 732
  591. Tonelli M647
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  595. Tsai AC360, 736
  596. Tsatsakis A737
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  619. Wickramasinghe ND758
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  621. Wu C761
  622. Jabbari SHY743
  623. Yamagishi K475, 760
  624. Yano Y761
  625. Yaya S185, 385
  626. Yazdifeyzabadi V762, 763
  627. Yeshitila YG91
  628. Yip P296, 297
  629. Yonemoto N764, 765
  630. Yoon SJ766
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  634. Yu Y754, 769
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  636. Zaidi SS771
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  639. Zamanian M103
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  641. Zarei A772
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  643. Zhang Y774, 775
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Source: The Lancet Published:2021


Abstract

Background: Documentation of patterns and long-term trends in mortality in young people, which reflect huge changes in demographic and social determinants of adolescent health, enables identification of global investment priorities for this age group. We aimed to analyse data on the number of deaths, years of life lost, and mortality rates by sex and age group in people aged 10–24 years in 204 countries and territories from 1950 to 2019 by use of estimates from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019. Methods: We report trends in estimated total numbers of deaths and mortality rate per 100 000 population in young people aged 10–24 years by age group (10–14 years, 15–19 years, and 20–24 years) and sex in 204 countries and territories between 1950 and 2019 for all causes, and between 1980 and 2019 by cause of death. We analyse variation in outcomes by region, age group, and sex, and compare annual rate of change in mortality in young people aged 10–24 years with that in children aged 0–9 years from 1990 to 2019. We then analyse the association between mortality in people aged 10–24 years and socioeconomic development using the GBD Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite measure based on average national educational attainment in people older than 15 years, total fertility rate in people younger than 25 years, and income per capita. We assess the association between SDI and all-cause mortality in 2019, and analyse the ratio of observed to expected mortality by SDI using the most recent available data release (2017). Findings: In 2019 there were 1·49 million deaths (95% uncertainty interval 1·39–1·59) worldwide in people aged 10–24 years, of which 61% occurred in males. 32·7% of all adolescent deaths were due to transport injuries, unintentional injuries, or interpersonal violence and conflict; 32·1% were due to communicable, nutritional, or maternal causes; 27·0% were due to non-communicable diseases; and 8·2% were due to self-harm. Since 1950, deaths in this age group decreased by 30·0% in females and 15·3% in males, and sex-based differences in mortality rate have widened in most regions of the world. Geographical variation has also increased, particularly in people aged 10–14 years. Since 1980, communicable and maternal causes of death have decreased sharply as a proportion of total deaths in most GBD super-regions, but remain some of the most common causes in sub-Saharan Africa and south Asia, where more than half of all adolescent deaths occur. Annual percentage decrease in all-cause mortality rate since 1990 in adolescents aged 15–19 years was 1·3% in males and 1·6% in females, almost half that of males aged 1–4 years (2·4%), and around a third less than in females aged 1–4 years (2·5%). The proportion of global deaths in people aged 0–24 years that occurred in people aged 10–24 years more than doubled between 1950 and 2019, from 9·5% to 21·6%. Interpretation: Variation in adolescent mortality between countries and by sex is widening, driven by poor progress in reducing deaths in males and older adolescents. Improving global adolescent mortality will require action to address the specific vulnerabilities of this age group, which are being overlooked. Furthermore, indirect effects of the COVID-19 pandemic are likely to jeopardise efforts to improve health outcomes including mortality in young people aged 10–24 years. There is an urgent need to respond to the changing global burden of adolescent mortality, address inequities where they occur, and improve the availability and quality of primary mortality data in this age group. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2021 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license
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