Longitudinal Causal Effect of Modified Creatinine Index on All-Cause Mortality in Patients With End-Stage Renal Disease: Accounting for Time-Varying Confounders Using G-Estimation Publisher Pubmed



Aryaie M¹ ; Sharifi H² ; Saber A³ ; Salehi F⁴ ; Etminan M⁵ ; Nazemipour M⁶ ; Mansournia MA⁶ Show Affiliations
Source: PLoS ONE Published:2022

Abstract

Background Standard regression modeling may cause biased effect estimates in the presence of time-varying confounders affected by prior exposure. This study aimed to quantify the relationship between declining in modified creatinine index (MCI), as a surrogate marker of lean body mass, and mortality among end stage renal disease (ESRD) patients using G-estimation accounting appropriately for time-varying confounders. Methods A retrospective cohort of all registered ESRD patients (n = 553) was constructed over 8 years from 2011 to 2019, from 3 hemodialysis centers at Kerman, southeast of Iran. According to changes in MCI, patients were dichotomized to either the decline group or no-decline group. Subsequently the effect of interest was estimated using G-estimation and compared with accelerated failure time (AFT) Weibull models using two modelling strategies. Results Standard models demonstrated survival time ratios of 0.91 (95% confidence interval [95% CI]: 0.64 to 1.28) and 0.84 (95% CI: 0.58 to 1.23) in patients in the decline MCI group compared to those in no-decline MCI group. This effect was demonstrated to be 0.57 (-95% CI: 0.21 to 0.81) using G-estimation. Conclusion Declining in MCI increases mortality in patients with ESRD using G-estimation, while the AFT standard models yield biased effect estimate toward the null. © 2022 Aryaie et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.