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Trend of Socio-Demographic Index and Mortality Estimates in Iran and Its Neighbors, 1990–2015; Findings of the Global Burden of Diseases 2015 Study Pubmed



Moradilakeh M1, 2 ; Sepanlu SG3 ; Karimi SM4 ; Khalili N1, 2 ; Djalalinia S5, 6 ; Karimkhani C7 ; Kohn K8 ; Afshin A8 ; Farzadfar F6 ; Kiadaliri AA9 ; Asadilari M10, 11 ; Asayesh H12 ; Esteghamati A13 ; Farvid M14 Show All Authors
Authors
  1. Moradilakeh M1, 2
  2. Sepanlu SG3
  3. Karimi SM4
  4. Khalili N1, 2
  5. Djalalinia S5, 6
  6. Karimkhani C7
  7. Kohn K8
  8. Afshin A8
  9. Farzadfar F6
  10. Kiadaliri AA9
  11. Asadilari M10, 11
  12. Asayesh H12
  13. Esteghamati A13
  14. Farvid M14
  15. Fereshtehnejad SM15
  16. Heydarpour P16
  17. Khosravi A17
  18. Khubchandani J18
  19. Kasaeian A19
  20. Rana SM20
  21. Mahdavi M21
  22. Masoudifarid H22
  23. Mohammadi A23
  24. Pourmalek F24
  25. Qorbani M25
  26. Radfar A26
  27. Rahimi K27
  28. Rahimimovaghar V28
  29. Roshandel G29
  30. Safi S12
  31. Salamati P28
  32. Tehranibanihashemi A1, 2
  33. Malekzadeh R3
  34. Mokdad AH8
  35. Murray CJL8
  36. Naghavi M8
Show Affiliations
Authors Affiliations
  1. 1. Department of Community and Family Medicine, Iran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
  2. 2. Preventive Medicine and Public Health Research Center, Iran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
  3. 3. Digestive Disease Research Institute, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
  4. 4. University of Washington, Tacoma, United States
  5. 5. Development of Research & Technology Center, Deputy of Research and Technology, Ministry of Health and Medical Education, Tehran, Iran
  6. 6. Non-communicable Diseases Research Center, Endocrinology and Metabolism Research Institute, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
  7. 7. University Hospitals Case Western Medical Center, Cleveland, OH, United States
  8. 8. Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, United States
  9. 9. Lund University, Lund, Sweden
  10. 10. Department of Epidemiology, Iran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
  11. 11. Cancer Pathology Research Center, Iran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
  12. 12. Ophthalmic Epidemiology Research Center, Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
  13. 13. Endocrinology and Metabolism Research Center, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
  14. 14. Institute for Health Policy, Harvard University, Boston, United States
  15. 15. Department of Neurology, Care Sciences and Society, Karolinska Institute, Stockholm, Sweden
  16. 16. Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
  17. 17. Deputy for Public Health, Ministry of Health and Medical Education, Tehran, Iran
  18. 18. Department of Nutrition and Health Science, Ball State University, Muncie, United States
  19. 19. Hematology-Oncology and Stem Cell Transplantation Research Center, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
  20. 20. Contech School of Public Health, Lahore, Pakistan
  21. 21. Erasmus University, Rotterdam, Netherlands
  22. 22. State Welfare Organisation, Tehran, Iran
  23. 23. Baqiyatallah University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
  24. 24. Department of Urology, School of Population and Public Health, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, Canada
  25. 25. Alborz University of Medical Sciences, Karaj, Iran
  26. 26. A T Still University, Kirksville, United States
  27. 27. The George Institute for Global Health, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
  28. 28. Sina Trauma and Surgery Research Center, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
  29. 29. Golestan University of Medical Sciences, Gorgan, Iran

Source: Archives of Iranian Medicine Published:2017


Abstract

BACKGROUND: The Global burden of disease and injuries study (GBD 2015) reports expected measures for years of life lost (YLL) based on socio-demographic index (SDI) of countries, as well as the observed measures. In this extended GBD 2015 report, we reviewed total and cause-specific deaths and YLL for Iran and all its neighboring countries between 1990 and 2015. METHODS: We extracted data from the GBD 2015 database. Observed YLL measures were calculated by multiplying the number of deaths by standard life expectancy at each age. SDI was a composite index, calculated based on income per capita, average years of schooling, and total fertility rate. The GBD world population was used for age standardization. RESULTS: All-ages crude death rate in Iran reduced from 665.6 per 100,000 population (95% uncertainty interval: 599.3–731.6) in 1990 to 487.2 (414.9–566.1) in 2015. The ratio of observed to expected YLL (O/E ratio) for all-causes ranged between 0.54 (Turkey) and 1.95 (Russia) in 2015. For Iran, the all-causes O/E ratio was less than 1 in all years (1990-2015), except 2003. However, cause-specific O/E ratio was more than 1 for some causes, including the top leading causes of YLL (ischemic heart disease, road injuries, and cerebrovascular disorders). Ischemic heart disease was the first or second cause of YLL in all comparator countries except Afghanistan. CONCLUSION: The leading YLL causes with high O/E ratios should be prioritized in public health efforts. In addition to research evidence, countries with low O/E ratios should be scrutinized to find feasible innovative interventions. © 2017, Academy of Medical Sciences of I.R. Iran. All rights reserved.
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