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Estimation of the Global Prevalence of Dementia in 2019 and Forecasted Prevalence in 2050: An Analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 Publisher Pubmed



Nichols E1 ; Steinmetz JD1 ; Vollset SE1, 2 ; Fukutaki K1 ; Chalek J1 ; Abdallah F4 ; Abdoli A5 ; Abualhasan A4 ; Abugharbieh E6 ; Akram TT7 ; Al Hamad H9, 10 ; Alahdab F11 ; Alanezi FM14 ; Alipour V15, 16 Show All Authors
Authors
  1. Nichols E1
  2. Steinmetz JD1
  3. Vollset SE1, 2
  4. Fukutaki K1
  5. Chalek J1
  6. Abdallah F4
  7. Abdoli A5
  8. Abualhasan A4
  9. Abugharbieh E6
  10. Akram TT7
  11. Al Hamad H9, 10
  12. Alahdab F11
  13. Alanezi FM14
  14. Alipour V15, 16
  15. Almustanyir S19, 20
  16. Amu H21
  17. Ansari I22
  18. Arabloo J15
  19. Ashraf T23
  20. Astellburt T26, 27
  21. Ayano G29
  22. Ayusomateos JL30, 31
  23. Baig AA33
  24. Barnett A34
  25. Barrow A35, 36
  26. Baune BT37, 39
  27. Bejot Y40, 41
  28. Mequanint Bezabhe WM42, 46
  29. Bezabih YM43, 47
  30. Bhagavathula AS48, 49
  31. Bhaskar S51, 52
  32. Bhattacharyya K53, 54
  33. Bijani A55
  34. Biswas A56
  35. Bolla SR57
  36. Boloor A58
  37. Brayne C60
  38. Brenner H61
  39. Burkart K1, 2
  40. Burns RA62
  41. Cao C64
  42. Carvalho F65
  43. Castrodearaujo LFS72
  44. Catalalopez F32, 74
  45. Cerin E34, 75
  46. Chavan PP76
  47. Cherbuin N62
  48. Chu DT78
  49. Costa VM65
  50. Couto RAS66
  51. Dadras O79, 80
  52. Dai X1
  53. Dandona L1, 81, 82
  54. Dandona R1, 2, 81
  55. De La Cruzgongora V83
  56. Dhamnetiya D84
  57. Da Silva DD67
  58. Diaz D85, 86
  59. Douiri A87
  60. Edvardsson D88, 89
  61. Ekholuenetale M90, 91
  62. El Sayed I94
  63. Eljaafary SI4
  64. Eskandari K95, 96
  65. Eskandarieh S97
  66. Esmaeilnejad S103, 104
  67. Fares J106
  68. Faro A108
  69. Farooque U109
  70. Feigin VL1, 110, 112
  71. Feng X113, 114
  72. Fereshtehnejad SM115, 116
  73. Fernandes E68
  74. Ferrara P117
  75. Filip I118, 119
  76. Fillit H120, 121
  77. Fischer F123
  78. Gaidhane S124
  79. Galluzzo L126
  80. Ghashghaee A15, 17
  81. Ghith N127
  82. Gialluisi A128
  83. Gilani SA24
  84. Glavan IR129
  85. Gnedovskaya EV111
  86. Golechha M130
  87. Gupta R131, 132
  88. Gupta VB133
  89. Gupta VK134
  90. Haider MR135
  91. Hall BJ136
  92. Hamidi S137
  93. Hanif A25
  94. Hankey GJ138, 139
  95. Haque S140
  96. Hartono RK141
  97. Hasaballah AI142
  98. Hasan MT143
  99. Hassan A4
  100. Hay SI1, 2
  101. Hayat K144, 145
  102. Hegazy MI1
  103. Heidari G146
  104. Heidarisoureshjani R98
  105. Herteliu C129, 147
  106. Househ M148
  107. Hussain R8
  108. Hwang BF149
  109. Iacoviello L150
  110. Iavicoli I151
  111. Ilesanmi OS92, 152
  112. Ilic IM154
  113. Ilic MD155
  114. Irvani SSN156
  115. Iso H157
  116. Iwagami M159, 161
  117. Jabbarinejad R99, 107
  118. Jacob L162, 163
  119. Jain V164
  120. Jayapal SK166
  121. Jayawardena R167, 169
  122. Jha RP84, 170
  123. Jonas JB171, 172
  124. Joseph N59
  125. Kalani R3
  126. Kandel A77
  127. Kandel H28, 173
  128. Karch A38
  129. Kasa AS44
  130. Kassie GM174
  131. Keshavarz P175, 176
  132. Khan MAB50, 177
  133. Khatib MN125
  134. Khoja TAM178
  135. Khubchandani J179
  136. Kim MS180, 181
  137. Kim YJ182
  138. Kisa A183, 184
  139. Kisa S185
  140. Kivimaki M186, 188
  141. Koroshetz WJ189
  142. Koyanagi A190, 191
  143. Kumar GA81
  144. Kumar M187, 192
  145. Lak HM164
  146. Leonardi M193
  147. Li B194
  148. Lim SS1, 2
  149. Liu X165, 195
  150. Liu Y196
  151. Logroscino G197, 198
  152. Lorkowski S199, 200
  153. Lucchetti G201
  154. Saute RL202
  155. Magnani FG193
  156. Malik AA25, 204
  157. Massano J69, 205
  158. Mehndiratta MM206, 207
  159. Menezes RG12
  160. Meretoja A73, 208
  161. Mohajer B100
  162. Ibrahim NM209
  163. Mohammad Y210
  164. Mohammed A211
  165. Mokdad AH1, 2
  166. Mondello S212
  167. Moni MA213
  168. Moniruzzaman M214
  169. Mossie TB45
  170. Nagel G215
  171. Naveed M216
  172. Nayak VC217
  173. Kandel SN218
  174. Nguyen TH219, 220
  175. Oancea B221
  176. Otstavnov N222
  177. Otstavnov SS222, 223
  178. Owolabi MO93, 153
  179. Pandajonas S171
  180. Kan FP18
  181. Pasovic M1
  182. Patel UK122
  183. Pathak M225
  184. Peres MFP226, 227
  185. Perianayagam A228
  186. Peterson CB229
  187. Phillips MR230, 231
  188. Pinheiro M70
  189. Piradov MA112
  190. Pond CD232
  191. Potashman MH233
  192. Pottoo FH13
  193. Prada SI234, 235
  194. Radfar A236
  195. Raggi A193
  196. Rahim F101
  197. Rahman M237
  198. Ram P238
  199. Ranasinghe P168
  200. Rawaf DL239, 241
  201. Rawaf S240, 242
  202. Rezaei N102, 243
  203. Rezapour A15
  204. Robinson SR244
  205. Romoli M245
  206. Roshandel G246
  207. Sahathevan R73, 247
  208. Sahebkar A248, 249
  209. Sahraian MA97
  210. Sathian B9, 250
  211. Sattin D193
  212. Sawhney M251
  213. Saylan M252
  214. Schiavolin S193
  215. Seylani A253
  216. Sha F254
  217. Shaikh MA255
  218. Shaji KS256
  219. Shannawaz M257
  220. Shetty JK258
  221. Shigematsu M259
  222. Shin JI260
  223. Shiri R261
  224. Santos Silva DA262
  225. Silva JP65
  226. Silva R71
  227. Singh JA263, 264
  228. Skryabin VY265
  229. Skryabina AA267
  230. Smith AE1
  231. Soshnikov S268, 269
  232. Spurlock EE1
  233. Stein DJ270
  234. Sun J271, 272
  235. Tabaresseisdedos R273, 274
  236. Thakur B275
  237. Timalsina B276
  238. Tovanipalone MR203, 277
  239. Tran BX278
  240. Tsegaye GW46
  241. Tahbaz SV105, 279
  242. Valdez PR63, 280
  243. Venketasubramanian N281, 282
  244. Vlassov V224
  245. Vu GT283
  246. Vu LG219, 220
  247. Wang YP226
  248. Wimo A284
  249. Winkler AS285, 286
  250. Yadav L287, 288
  251. Jabbari SHY279
  252. Yamagishi K158, 160
  253. Yang L289, 290, 291
  254. Yano Y292
  255. Yonemoto N293, 294
  256. Yu C295
  257. Yunusa I297
  258. Zadey S298
  259. Zastrozhin MS266, 299
  260. Zastrozhina A300
  261. Zhang ZJ296
  262. Murray CJL1, 2
  263. Vos T1, 2
Show Affiliations
Authors Affiliations
  1. 1. Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, United States
  2. 2. Department of Health Metrics Sciences, School of Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, United States
  3. 3. Department of Neurology, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, United States
  4. 4. Department of Neurology, Cairo University, Cairo, Egypt
  5. 5. Zoonosis Research Center, Jahrom University of Medical Sciences, Jahrom, Iran
  6. 6. Clinical Sciences Department, University of Sharjah, Sharjah, United Arab Emirates
  7. 7. School of Mathematical Sciences, University of Science Malaysia, Penang, Malaysia
  8. 8. School of Pharmaceutical Sciences, University of Science Malaysia, Penang, Malaysia
  9. 9. Geriatric and Long Term Care Department, Hamad Medical Corporation, Doha, Qatar
  10. 10. Rumailah Hospital, Hamad Medical Corporation, Doha, Qatar
  11. 11. Mayo Evidence-based Practice Center, Mayo Clinic Foundation for Medical Education and Research, Rochester, MN, United States
  12. 12. Forensic Medicine Division, Dammam, Saudi Arabia
  13. 13. Department of Pharmacology, Dammam, Saudi Arabia
  14. 14. Imam Abdulrahman Bin Faisal University, Dammam, Saudi Arabia
  15. 15. Health Management and Economics Research Center, Tehran, Iran
  16. 16. Department of Health Economics, Tehran, Iran
  17. 17. Student Research Committee, Tehran, Iran
  18. 18. Iran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
  19. 19. College of Medicine, Alfaisal University, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
  20. 20. Ministry of Health, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
  21. 21. Department of Population and Behavioural Sciences, University of Health and Allied Sciences, Ho, Ghana
  22. 22. Medical Students Research Committee, Shahed University, Tehran, Iran
  23. 23. University Institute of Radiological Sciences and Medical Imaging Technology, The University of Lahore, Lahore, Pakistan
  24. 24. Faculty of Allied Health Sciences, The University of Lahore, Lahore, Pakistan
  25. 25. University Institute of Public Health, The University of Lahore, Lahore, Pakistan
  26. 26. School of Health and Society, University of Wollongong, Wollongong, NSW, Australia
  27. 27. Menzies Centre for Health Policy, University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW, Australia
  28. 28. Save Sight Institute, University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW, Australia
  29. 29. School of Public Health, Curtin University, Perth, WA, Australia
  30. 30. Department of Psychiatry, Universidad Autonoma de Madrid (Autonomous University of Madrid), Madrid, Spain
  31. 31. CIBERSAM, Institute of Health Carlos III, Madrid, Spain
  32. 32. National School of Public Health, Institute of Health Carlos III, Madrid, Spain
  33. 33. Unit of Biochemistry, Universiti Sultan Zainal Abidin (Sultan Zainal Abidin University), Kuala Terengganu, Malaysia
  34. 34. Mary MacKillop Institute for Health Research, Australian Catholic University, Melbourne, VIC, Australia
  35. 35. Department of Public & Environmental Health, University of The Gambia, Brikama, Gambia
  36. 36. Epidemiology and Disease Control Unit, Ministry of Health, Kotu, Gambia
  37. 37. Department of Psychiatry, University of Munster, Munster, Germany
  38. 38. Institute for Epidemiology and Social Medicine, University of Munster, Munster, Germany
  39. 39. Department of Psychiatry, Melbourne Medical School, Melbourne, VIC, Australia
  40. 40. Department of Neurology, University Hospital of Dijon, Dijon, France
  41. 41. Dijon Stroke Registry, UFR Sciences Sante, University of Burgundy, Dijon, France
  42. 42. University of Tasmania, Tasmania, VIC, Australia
  43. 43. Department of Internal Medicine, Bahir Dar University, Bahir Dar, Ethiopia
  44. 44. Department of Adult Health Nursing, Bahir Dar University, Bahir Dar, Ethiopia
  45. 45. Department of Psychiatry, Bahir Dar University, Bahir Dar, Ethiopia
  46. 46. College of Medicine and Health Sciences, Bahir Dar University, Bahir Dar, Ethiopia
  47. 47. One Health, University of Nantes, Nantes, France
  48. 48. Department of Social and Clinical Pharmacy, Charles University, Hradec Kralova, Czech Republic
  49. 49. Institute of Public Health, United Arab Emirates University, Al Ain, United Arab Emirates
  50. 50. Family Medicine Department, United Arab Emirates University, Al Ain, United Arab Emirates
  51. 51. Neurovascular Imaging Laboratory, NSW Brain Clot Bank, Sydney, NSW, Australia
  52. 52. Department of Neurology and Neurophysiology, South West Sydney Local Heath District and Liverpool Hospital, Sydney, NSW, Australia
  53. 53. Department of Statistical and Computational Genomics, National Institute of Biomedical Genomics, Kalyani, India
  54. 54. Department of Statistics, University of Calcutta, Kolkata, India
  55. 55. Social Determinants of Health Research Center, Babol University of Medical Sciences, Babol, Iran
  56. 56. Department of Neurology, Institute of Post-Graduate Medical Education and Research, Seth Sukhlal Karnani Memorial Hospital, Kolkata, India
  57. 57. Department of Biomedical Sciences, Nazarbayev University, Nur-Sultan City, Kazakhstan
  58. 58. Department of Internal Medicine, Manipal Academy of Higher Education, Mangalore, India
  59. 59. Department of Community Medicine, Manipal Academy of Higher Education, Mangalore, India
  60. 60. Department of Public Health and Primary Care, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, United Kingdom
  61. 61. Division of Clinical Epidemiology and Aging Research, German Cancer Research Center, Heidelberg, Germany
  62. 62. Research School of Population Health, Australian National University, Canberra, ACT, Australia
  63. 63. Argentine Society of Medicine, Buenos Aires, Argentina
  64. 64. Program in Physical Therapy, Washington University in St. Louis, St. Louis, MO, United States
  65. 65. Research Unit on Applied Molecular Biosciences (UCIBIO), University of Porto, Porto, Portugal
  66. 66. Department of Chemical Sciences, University of Porto, Porto, Portugal
  67. 67. Laboratory of Toxicology, University of Porto, Porto, Portugal
  68. 68. Associated Laboratory for Green Chemistry (LAQV), University of Porto, Porto, Portugal
  69. 69. Department of Clinical Neurosciences and Mental Health, University of Porto, Porto, Portugal
  70. 70. Department of Chemistry, University of Porto, Porto, Portugal
  71. 71. Department of Biological Sciences, University of Porto, Porto, Portugal
  72. 72. Department of Psychiatry, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, VIC, Australia
  73. 73. School of Health Sciences, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, VIC, Australia
  74. 74. Clinical Epidemiology Program, Ottawa Hospital Research Institute, Ottawa, ON, Canada
  75. 75. School of Public Health, University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong
  76. 76. Department of Epidemiology and Environmental Health, University at Buffalo, Buffalo, NY, United States
  77. 77. Department of Neurology, University at Buffalo, Buffalo, NY, United States
  78. 78. Center for Biomedicine and Community Health, VNU-International School, Hanoi, Viet Nam
  79. 79. School of Public Health, Walailak University, Nakhon Si Thammarat, Thailand
  80. 80. Graduate School of Medicine, Kyoto University, Kyoto, Japan
  81. 81. Public Health Foundation of India, Gurugram, India
  82. 82. Indian Council of Medical Research, New Delhi, India
  83. 83. Center for Evaluation and Surveys Research, National Institute of Public Health, Cuernavaca, Mexico
  84. 84. Department of Community Medicine, Dr. Baba Saheb Ambedkar Medical College & Hospital, Delhi, India
  85. 85. Center of Complexity Sciences, National Autonomous University of Mexico, Mexico City, Mexico
  86. 86. Faculty of Veterinary Medicine and Zootechnics, Autonomous University of Sinaloa, Culiacan Rosales, Mexico
  87. 87. School of Population Health and Environmental Sciences, King's College London, London, United Kingdom
  88. 88. School of Nursing and Midwifery, La Trobe University, Melbourne, VIC, Australia
  89. 89. Department of Nursing, Umea University, Umea, Sweden
  90. 90. Department of Epidemiology and Medical Statistics, University of Ibadan, Ibadan, Nigeria
  91. 91. Faculty of Public Health, University of Ibadan, Ibadan, Nigeria
  92. 92. Department of Community Medicine, University of Ibadan, Ibadan, Nigeria
  93. 93. Department of Medicine, University of Ibadan, Ibadan, Nigeria
  94. 94. Biomedical Informatics and Medical Statistics Department, Alexandria University, Alexandria, Egypt
  95. 95. Department of Medicinal Chemistry, Kerman University of Medical Sciences, Kerman, Iran
  96. 96. Pharmaceutics Research Center, Kerman University of Medical Sciences, Kerman, Iran
  97. 97. Multiple Sclerosis Research Center, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
  98. 98. School of Nursing and Midwifery, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
  99. 99. Department of Psychiatry, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
  100. 100. Non-communicable Diseases Research Center, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
  101. 101. Metabolomics and Genomics Research Center, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
  102. 102. Research Center for Immunodeficiencies, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
  103. 103. Department of Physiology, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran
  104. 104. Tehran Medical Sciences Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran
  105. 105. Department of Microbiology, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran
  106. 106. Department of Neurological Surgery, Northwestern University, Chicago, IL, United States
  107. 107. Department of Physical Medicine & Rehabilitation, Northwestern University, Chicago, IL, United States
  108. 108. Department of Psychology, Federal University of Sergipe, Sao Cristovao, Brazil
  109. 109. Department of Internal Medicine, Dow University of Health Sciences, Karachi, Pakistan
  110. 110. National Institute for Stroke and Applied Neurosciences, Auckland University of Technology, Auckland, New Zealand
  111. 111. Third Department of Neurology, Moscow, Russian Federation
  112. 112. Research Center of Neurology, Moscow, Russian Federation
  113. 113. School of Population Health, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, Australia
  114. 114. National Institute of Environmental Health, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China
  115. 115. Department of Neurobiology, Karolinska Institute, Stockholm, Sweden
  116. 116. Division of Neurology, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, ON, Canada
  117. 117. Research Center on Public Health, University of Milan Bicocca, Monza, Italy
  118. 118. Psychiatry Department, Kaiser Permanente, Fontana, CA, United States
  119. 119. School of Health Sciences, AT Still University, Mesa, AZ, United States
  120. 120. Alzheimer's Drug Discovery Foundation, New York, NY, United States
  121. 121. Department of Geriatric Medicine, Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai, New York, NY, United States
  122. 122. Department of Neurology and Public Health, Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai, New York, NY, United States
  123. 123. Institute of Gerontological Health Services and Nursing Research, Ravensburg-Weingarten University of Applied Sciences, Weingarten, Germany
  124. 124. Department of Medicine, Datta Meghe Institute of Medical Sciences, Wardha, India
  125. 125. Global Evidence Synthesis Initiative, Datta Meghe Institute of Medical Sciences, Wardha, India
  126. 126. Department of Cardiovascular, Endocrine-metabolic Diseases, and Aging, Istituto Superiore di Sanita (Italian National Health Institute), Roma, Italy
  127. 127. Research Group for Genomic Epidemiology, Technical University of Denmark, Copenhagen, Denmark
  128. 128. Department of Epidemiology and Prevention, IRCCS Neuromed, Pozzilli, Italy
  129. 129. Department of Statistics and Econometrics, Bucharest University of Economic Studies, Bucharest, Romania
  130. 130. Health Systems and Policy Research, Indian Institute of Public Health, Gandhinagar, India
  131. 131. Department of Preventive Cardiology, Eternal Heart Care Centre &, Research Institute, Jaipur, India
  132. 132. Department of Medicine, Mahatma Gandhi University Medical Sciences, Jaipur, India
  133. 133. School of Medicine, Deakin University, Geelong, VIC, Australia
  134. 134. Department of Clinical Medicine, Macquarie University, Sydney, NSW, Australia
  135. 135. Department of Social and Public Health, Ohio University, Athens, OH, United States
  136. 136. NYU Shanghai, Shanghai, China
  137. 137. School of Health and Environmental Studies, Hamdan Bin Mohammed Smart University, Dubai, United Arab Emirates
  138. 138. Medical School, University of Western Australia, Perth, WA, Australia
  139. 139. Department of Neurology, Sir Charles Gairdner Hospital, Perth, WA, Australia
  140. 140. Research &, Scientific Studies Unit, Jazan University, Jazan, Saudi Arabia
  141. 141. Sekolah Tinggi Ilmu Kesehatan Indonesia Maju (Indonesian Advanced College of Health Sciences), Institution of Public Health Sciences, Jakarta, Indonesia
  142. 142. Department of Zoology and Entomology, Al Azhar University, Cairo, Egypt
  143. 143. Department of Primary Care and Mental Health, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, United Kingdom
  144. 144. Institute of Pharmaceutical Sciences, University of Veterinary and Animal Sciences, Lahore, Pakistan
  145. 145. Department of Pharmacy Administration and Clinical Pharmacy, Xian Jiaotong University, Xian, China
  146. 146. Santa Clara, CA, United States
  147. 147. School of Business, London South Bank University, London, United Kingdom
  148. 148. College of Science and Engineering, Hamad Bin Khalifa University, Doha, Qatar
  149. 149. Department of Occupational Safety and Health, China Medical University, Taichung, Taiwan
  150. 150. Research Center in Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine (EPIMED), University of Insubria, Varese, Italy
  151. 151. Department of Public Health, University of Naples Federico II, Naples, Italy
  152. 152. Department of Community Medicine, University College Hospital, Ibadan, Ibadan, Nigeria
  153. 153. Department of Medicine, University College Hospital, Ibadan, Ibadan, Nigeria
  154. 154. Faculty of Medicine, University of Belgrade, Belgrade, Serbia
  155. 155. Department of Epidemiology, University of Kragujevac, Kragujevac, Serbia
  156. 156. Tabriz, Iran
  157. 157. Public Health Department of Social Medicine, Osaka University, Suita, Japan
  158. 158. Graduate School of Medicine, Osaka University, Suita, Japan
  159. 159. Department of Health Services Research, University of Tsukuba, Tsukuba, Japan
  160. 160. Research and Development Center for Health Services, University of Tsukuba, Tsukuba, Japan
  161. 161. Department of Non-Communicable Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene &, Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom
  162. 162. Research and Development Unit, Biomedical Research Networking Center for Mental Health Network (CiberSAM), Sant Boi de Llobregat, Spain
  163. 163. Faculty of Medicine, University of Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines, Montigny-le-Bretonneux, France
  164. 164. Department of Internal Medicine, Cleveland Clinic, Cleveland, OH, United States
  165. 165. Lerner Research Institute, Cleveland Clinic, Cleveland, OH, United States
  166. 166. Centre of Studies and Research, Ministry of Health, Muscat, Oman
  167. 167. Department of Physiology, University of Colombo, Colombo, Sri Lanka
  168. 168. Department of Pharmacology, University of Colombo, Colombo, Sri Lanka
  169. 169. School of Exercise and Nutrition Sciences, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, QLD, Australia
  170. 170. Department of Community Medicine, Banaras Hindu University, Varanasi, India
  171. 171. Department of Ophthalmology, Heidelberg University, Heidelberg, Germany
  172. 172. Beijing Institute of Ophthalmology, Beijing Tongren Hospital, Beijing, China
  173. 173. Sydney Eye Hospital, South Eastern Sydney Local Health District, Sydney, NSW, Australia
  174. 174. Quality Use of Medicines and Pharmacy Research Centre, University of South Australia, Adelaide, SA, Australia
  175. 175. School of Science and Technology, The University of Georgia, Tbilisi, Georgia
  176. 176. Department of Diagnostic &, Interventional Radiology, New Hospitals LTD, Tbilisi, Georgia
  177. 177. Primary Care Department, NHS North West London, London, United Kingdom
  178. 178. Executive Board of the Health Ministers' Council for the Gulf Cooperation Council States, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
  179. 179. Department of Public Health, New Mexico State University, Las Cruces, NM, United States
  180. 180. Department of Genomics and Digital Health, Samsung Advanced Institute for Health Sciences & Technology (SAIHST), Seoul, South Korea
  181. 181. Public Health Center, Ministry of Health and Welfare, Wando, South Korea
  182. 182. School of Traditional Chinese Medicine, Xiamen University Malaysia, Sepang, Malaysia
  183. 183. School of Health Sciences, Kristiania University College, Oslo, Norway
  184. 184. Department of Global Community Health and Behavioral Sciences, Tulane University, New Orleans, LA, United States
  185. 185. Department of Nursing and Health Promotion, Oslo Metropolitan University, Oslo, Norway
  186. 186. Department of Epidemiology and Public Health, Finland
  187. 187. Division of Psychology and Language Sciences, University College London, London, United Kingdom
  188. 188. Department of Public Health, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland
  189. 189. National Institute of Neurological Disorders and Stroke, National Institute of Health, Bethesda, MD, United States
  190. 190. Biomedical Research Networking Center for Mental Health Network (CIBERSAM), San Juan de Dios Sanitary Park, Sant Boi de Llobregat, Spain
  191. 191. Catalan Institution for Research and Advanced Studies (ICREA), Barcelona, Spain
  192. 192. Department of Psychiatry, University of Nairobi, Nairobi, Kenya
  193. 193. UO Neurologia, Salute Pubblica e Disabilita, Fondazione IRCCS Istituto Neurologico Carlo Besta (Neurology, Public Health and Disability Unit, Carlo Besta Neurological Institute), Milan, Italy
  194. 194. Department of Sociology, Shenzhen University, Shenzhen, China
  195. 195. Department of Quantitative Health Science, Case Western Reserve University, Cleveland, OH, United States
  196. 196. School of Public Health, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, China
  197. 197. Department of Basic Medical Sciences, Neuroscience and Sense Organs, University of Bari Aldo Moro, Bari, Italy
  198. 198. Department of Clinical Research in Neurology, Fondazione Cardinale Giovanni Panico Hospital, Tricase, Italy
  199. 199. Institute of Nutritional Sciences, Friedrich Schiller University Jena, Jena, Germany
  200. 200. Competence Cluster for Nutrition and Cardiovascular Health (nutriCARD), Jena, Germany
  201. 201. School of Medicine, Federal University of Juiz de Fora, Juiz de Fora, Brazil
  202. 202. Department of Neurosciences and Behavioral Sciences, University of Sao Paulo, Ribeirao Preto, Brazil
  203. 203. Department of Pathology and Legal Medicine, University of Sao Paulo, Ribeirao Preto, Brazil
  204. 204. Rabigh Faculty of Medicine, King Abdulaziz University, Jeddah, Saudi Arabia
  205. 205. Department of Neurology, University Hospital Center de Sao Joao, Porto, Portugal
  206. 206. Neurology Department, Janakpuri Super Specialty Hospital Society, New Delhi, India
  207. 207. Department of Neurology, Govind Ballabh Institute of Medical Education and Research, New Delhi, India
  208. 208. Neurology Unit, Helsinki University Hospital, Helsinki, Finland
  209. 209. Department of Medicine, National University of Malaysia Medical Center, Bandar Tun Razak, Malaysia
  210. 210. Internal Medicine Department, King Saud University, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
  211. 211. Department of Biology, University of Jeddah, Jeddah, Saudi Arabia
  212. 212. Department of Biomedical and Dental Sciences and Morphofunctional Imaging, Messina University, Messina, Italy
  213. 213. Department of Computer Science and Engineering, Pabna University of Science and Technology, Pabna, Bangladesh
  214. 214. Mater Research Institute, The University of Queensland, Brisbane, QLD, Australia
  215. 215. Institute of Epidemiology and Medical Biometry, Ulm University, Ulm, Germany
  216. 216. Department of Biotechnology, University of Central Punjab, Lahore, Pakistan
  217. 217. Department of Forensic Medicine and Toxicology, Manipal Academy of Higher Education, Manipal, India
  218. 218. Estia Health Blakehurst, Estia Health, Sydney, NSW, Australia
  219. 219. Institute for Global Health Innovations, Duy Tan University, Da Nang, Viet Nam
  220. 220. Faculty of Medicine, Duy Tan University, Da Nang, Viet Nam
  221. 221. Administrative and Economic Sciences Department, University of Bucharest, Bucharest, Romania
  222. 222. Laboratory of Public Health Indicators Analysis and Health Digitalization, Moscow Institute of Physics and Technology, Dolgoprudny, Russian Federation
  223. 223. Department of Project Management, National Research University Higher School of Economics, Moscow, Russian Federation
  224. 224. Department of Health Care Administration and Economics, National Research University Higher School of Economics, Moscow, Russian Federation
  225. 225. Research & Development Department, Kalinga Institute of Medical Sciences, Bhubaneswar, India
  226. 226. Department of Psychiatry, University of Sao Paulo, Sao Paulo, Brazil
  227. 227. International Institute for Educational Planning (IIEP), Albert Einstein Hospital, Sao Paulo, Brazil
  228. 228. Department of Development Studies, International Institute for Population Sciences, Mumbai, India
  229. 229. Gerontology, Dementia and Digital Health, Copenhagen, Denmark
  230. 230. Shanghai Mental Health Center, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai, China
  231. 231. Department of Psychiatry, Columbia University, New York City, NY, United States
  232. 232. Discipline of General Practice, University of Newcastle, Callaghan, NSW, Australia
  233. 233. Value and Access Program, Biogen, Cambridge, MA, United States
  234. 234. Centro de Investigaciones Clinicas, Fundacion Valle del Lili (Clinical Research Center, Valle del Lili Foundation), Cali, Colombia
  235. 235. Centro PROESA, Universidad ICESI (ICESI University), Cali, Colombia
  236. 236. College of Medicine, University of Central Florida, Orlando, FL, United States
  237. 237. Department of Population Science and Human Resource Development, University of Rajshahi, Rajshahi, Bangladesh
  238. 238. Department of Cardiology, Emory University, Atlanta, GA, United States
  239. 239. WHO Collaborating Centre for Public Health Education and Training, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom
  240. 240. Department of Primary Care and Public Health, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom
  241. 241. University College London Hospitals, London, United Kingdom
  242. 242. Academic Public Health England, Public Health England, London, United Kingdom
  243. 243. Network of Immunity in Infection, Malignancy and Autoimmunity (NIIMA), Universal Scientific Education and Research Network (USERN), Tehran, Iran
  244. 244. Department of Psychology, Royal Melbourne Institute of Technology University, Bundoora, VIC, Australia
  245. 245. Maurizio Bufalini Hospital, Cesena, Italy
  246. 246. Golestan Research Center of Gastroenterology and Hepatology (GRCGH), Golestan University of Medical Sciences, Gorgan, Iran
  247. 247. Internal Medicine Servcies, Ballarat Health Service, Ballarat, VIC, Australia
  248. 248. Applied Biomedical Research Center, Mashhad University of Medical Sciences, Mashhad, Iran
  249. 249. Biotechnology Research Center, Mashhad University of Medical Sciences, Mashhad, Iran
  250. 250. Faculty of Health & Social Sciences, Bournemouth University, Bournemouth, United Kingdom
  251. 251. Department of Public Health Sciences, University of North Carolina at Charlotte, Charlotte, NC, United States
  252. 252. Market Access, Bayer, Istanbul, Turkey
  253. 253. National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute, National Institute of Health, Rockville, MD, United States
  254. 254. Center for Biomedical Information Technology, Shenzhen Institutes of Advanced Technology, Shenzhen, China
  255. 255. Karachi, Pakistan
  256. 256. Medical College, Kerala University of Health Sciences, Thrissur, India
  257. 257. Symbiosis Medical College for Women, Symbiosis International University, Pune, India
  258. 258. Perdana University, Royal College of Surgeons in Ireland School of Medicine, Perdana University, Kaula Lumpur, Malaysia
  259. 259. National Institute of Infectious Diseases, Tokyo, Japan
  260. 260. College of Medicine, Yonsei University, Seoul, South Korea
  261. 261. Finnish Institute of Occupational Health, Helsinki, Finland
  262. 262. Department of Physical Education, Federal University of Santa Catarina, Florianopolis, Brazil
  263. 263. School of Medicine, University of Alabama at Birmingham, Birmingham, AL, United States
  264. 264. Medicine Service, US Department of Veterans Affairs (VA), Birmingham, AL, United States
  265. 265. Department No.16, Moscow Research and Practical Centre on Addictions, Moscow, Russian Federation
  266. 266. Laboratory of Genetics and Genomics, Moscow Research and Practical Centre on Addictions, Moscow, Russian Federation
  267. 267. Therapeutic Department, Balashiha Central Hospital, Balashikha, Russian Federation
  268. 268. Institute for Leadership and Health Management, Sechenov First Moscow State Medical University, Moscow, Russian Federation
  269. 269. Laboratory of Public Health Indicators Analysis and Health Digitalization, Moscow Institute of Physics and Technology, Moscow, Russian Federation
  270. 270. Risk and Resilience in Mental Disorders Unit, South African Medical Research Council, Cape Town, South Africa
  271. 271. School of Medicine, Griffith University, Gold Coast, QLD, Australia
  272. 272. School of Computing Sciences, University of Technology Sydney, Sydney, NSW, Australia
  273. 273. Department of Medicine, University of Valencia, Valencia, Spain
  274. 274. Carlos III Health Institute, Biomedical Research Networking Center for Mental Health Network (CiberSAM), Madrid, Spain
  275. 275. Division of Biostatistics and Epidemiology, Texas Tech University Health Sciences Center, El Paso, TX, United States
  276. 276. Department of Anatomy, Dongguk University, Geongju-si, South Korea
  277. 277. Modestum LTD, London, United Kingdom
  278. 278. Department of Health Economics, Hanoi Medical University, Hanoi, Viet Nam
  279. 279. Clinical Cancer Research Center, Milad General Hospital, Tehran, Iran
  280. 280. Velez Sarsfield Hospital, Buenos Aires, Argentina
  281. 281. Raffles Neuroscience Centre, Raffles Hospital, Singapore, Singapore
  282. 282. Yong Loo Lin School of Medicine, National University of Singapore, Singapore, Singapore
  283. 283. Center of Excellence in Behavioral Medicine, Nguyen Tat Thanh University, Ho Chi Minh City, Viet Nam
  284. 284. Department of Neurobiology, Care Sciences and Society, Karolinska Institute, Solna, Sweden
  285. 285. Institute of Health and Society, University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway
  286. 286. Department of Neurology, Technical University of Munich, Munich, Germany
  287. 287. Adelaide Medical School, University of Adelaide, Adelaide, SA, Australia
  288. 288. Research and Development Division, The George Institute for Global Health, New Delhi, India
  289. 289. Cancer Epidemiology and Prevention Research, Alberta Health Services, Calgary, BC, Canada
  290. 290. Department of Oncology, University of Calgary, Calgary, AB, Canada
  291. 291. Department of Community Health Sciences, University of Calgary, Calgary, AB, Canada
  292. 292. Department of Family Medicine and Community Health, Duke University, Durham, IL, United States
  293. 293. Department of Neuropsychopharmacology, National Center of Neurology and Psychiatry, Kodaira, Japan
  294. 294. Department of Public Health, Juntendo University, Tokyo, Japan
  295. 295. Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Wuhan University, Wuhan, China
  296. 296. School of Medicine, Wuhan University, Wuhan, China
  297. 297. Department of Clinical Pharmacy and Outcomes Sciences, University of South Carolina, Columbia, SC, United States
  298. 298. Duke Global Health Institute, Duke University, Durham, NC, United States
  299. 299. Addictology Department, Russian Medical Academy of Continuous Professional Education, Moscow, Russian Federation
  300. 300. Pediatrics Department, Russian Medical Academy of Continuous Professional Education, Moscow, Russian Federation

Source: The Lancet Public Health Published:2022


Abstract

Background: Given the projected trends in population ageing and population growth, the number of people with dementia is expected to increase. In addition, strong evidence has emerged supporting the importance of potentially modifiable risk factors for dementia. Characterising the distribution and magnitude of anticipated growth is crucial for public health planning and resource prioritisation. This study aimed to improve on previous forecasts of dementia prevalence by producing country-level estimates and incorporating information on selected risk factors. Methods: We forecasted the prevalence of dementia attributable to the three dementia risk factors included in the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 (high body-mass index, high fasting plasma glucose, and smoking) from 2019 to 2050, using relative risks and forecasted risk factor prevalence to predict GBD risk-attributable prevalence in 2050 globally and by world region and country. Using linear regression models with education included as an additional predictor, we then forecasted the prevalence of dementia not attributable to GBD risks. To assess the relative contribution of future trends in GBD risk factors, education, population growth, and population ageing, we did a decomposition analysis. Findings: We estimated that the number of people with dementia would increase from 57·4 (95% uncertainty interval 50·4–65·1) million cases globally in 2019 to 152·8 (130·8–175·9) million cases in 2050. Despite large increases in the projected number of people living with dementia, age-standardised both-sex prevalence remained stable between 2019 and 2050 (global percentage change of 0·1% [–7·5 to 10·8]). We estimated that there were more women with dementia than men with dementia globally in 2019 (female-to-male ratio of 1·69 [1·64–1·73]), and we expect this pattern to continue to 2050 (female-to-male ratio of 1·67 [1·52–1·85]). There was geographical heterogeneity in the projected increases across countries and regions, with the smallest percentage changes in the number of projected dementia cases in high-income Asia Pacific (53% [41–67]) and western Europe (74% [58–90]), and the largest in north Africa and the Middle East (367% [329–403]) and eastern sub-Saharan Africa (357% [323–395]). Projected increases in cases could largely be attributed to population growth and population ageing, although their relative importance varied by world region, with population growth contributing most to the increases in sub-Saharan Africa and population ageing contributing most to the increases in east Asia. Interpretation: Growth in the number of individuals living with dementia underscores the need for public health planning efforts and policy to address the needs of this group. Country-level estimates can be used to inform national planning efforts and decisions. Multifaceted approaches, including scaling up interventions to address modifiable risk factors and investing in research on biological mechanisms, will be key in addressing the expected increases in the number of individuals affected by dementia. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and Gates Ventures. © 2022 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license
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