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Global, Regional, and National Incidence, Prevalence, and Years Lived With Disability for 301 Acute and Chronic Diseases and Injuries in 188 Countries, 1990-2013: A Systematic Analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 Publisher Pubmed



Vos T1 ; Barber RM1 ; Bell B1 ; Bertozzivilla A1 ; Biryukov S1 ; Bolliger I1 ; Charlson F9 ; Davis A10 ; Degenhardt L11 ; Dicker D1 ; Duan L12 ; Erskine H9 ; Feigin VL13 ; Ferrari AJ9 Show All Authors
Authors
  1. Vos T1
  2. Barber RM1
  3. Bell B1
  4. Bertozzivilla A1
  5. Biryukov S1
  6. Bolliger I1
  7. Charlson F9
  8. Davis A10
  9. Degenhardt L11
  10. Dicker D1
  11. Duan L12
  12. Erskine H9
  13. Feigin VL13
  14. Ferrari AJ9
  15. Fitzmaurice C1
  16. Fleming T1
  17. Graetz N1
  18. Guinovart C15
  19. Haagsma J1
  20. Hansen GM1
  21. Hanson SW1
  22. Heuton KR1
  23. Higashi H1
  24. Kassebaum N3
  25. Kyu H1
  26. Laurie E1
  27. Liang X12
  28. Lofgren K1
  29. Lozano R1, 16
  30. Macintyre MF1
  31. Moradilakeh M1
  32. Naghavi M1
  33. Nguyen G1
  34. Odell S1
  35. Ortblad K1
  36. Roberts DA1
  37. Roth GA1
  38. Sandar L1
  39. Serina PT1
  40. Stanaway JD1
  41. Steiner C1
  42. Thomas B1
  43. Vollset SE1
  44. Whiteford H9
  45. Wolock TM1
  46. Ye P12
  47. Zhou M12
  48. Avila MA16
  49. Aasvang GM17
  50. Abbafati C18
  51. Ozgoren AA19
  52. Abdallah F20
  53. Aziz MIA21
  54. Abera SF22
  55. Aboyans V23
  56. Abraham JP25
  57. Abraham B24
  58. Abubakar I26
  59. Aburaddad LJ27
  60. Aburmeileh NME28
  61. Aburto TC16
  62. Achoki T1
  63. Ackerman IN32
  64. Adelekan A33
  65. Ademi Z32
  66. Adou AK34
  67. Adsuar JC35
  68. Arnlov J69
  69. Agardh EE36
  70. Al Khabouri MJ37
  71. Alam SS38
  72. Alasfoor D37
  73. Albittar MI39
  74. Alegretti MA40
  75. Aleman AV41
  76. Alemu ZA43
  77. Alfonsocristancho R6
  78. Alhabib S44
  79. Ali R45
  80. Alla F46
  81. Allebeck P47
  82. Allen PJ52
  83. Almazroa MA53
  84. Alsharif U54
  85. Alvarez E55
  86. Alvisguzman N56
  87. Ameli O60
  88. Amini H61, 62, 63
  89. Ammar W57, 64
  90. Anderson BO6
  91. Anderson HR65
  92. Antonio CAT67
  93. Anwari P68
  94. Apfel H1
  95. Arsenijevic VSA70
  96. Artaman A71
  97. Asghar RJ72
  98. Assadi R73
  99. Atkins LS74
  100. Atkinson C1
  101. Badawi A75
  102. Bahit MC76
  103. Bakfalouni T77
  104. Balakrishnan K78
  105. Balalla S13
  106. Banerjee A79
  107. Barkercollo SL80
  108. Barquera S16
  109. Barregard L82
  110. Barrero LH84
  111. Basu S86
  112. Basu A85
  113. Baxter A86
  114. Beardsley J87
  115. Bedi N88
  116. Beghi E89
  117. Bekele T91
  118. Bell ML92
  119. Benjet C93
  120. Bennett DA45
  121. Bensenor IM94
  122. Benzian H26
  123. Bernabe E96
  124. Beyene TJ97
  125. Bhala N98
  126. Bhalla A99
  127. Bhutta Z100
  128. Bienhoff K1
  129. Bikbov B102
  130. Abdulhak AB103
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  136. Bornstein NM109
  137. Bose D110
  138. Boufous S11
  139. Bourne RR111
  140. Boyers LN112
  141. Brainin M114
  142. Brauer M115
  143. Brayne CEG116
  144. Brazinova A117
  145. Breitborde NJK118
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  248. Goginashvili K198
  249. Gona P123
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  251. Gosselin RA199
  252. Gotay CC115
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  256. Gugnani HC203
  257. Gunnell D204
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  274. Hedayati MT214
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  276. Heydarpour P184
  277. Hijar M215
  278. Hoek HW58, 216
  279. Hoffman HJ174
  280. Hornberger JC217
  281. Hosgood HD218
  282. Hossain M219
  283. Hotez PJ220
  284. Hoy DG7, 222
  285. Hsairi M221
  286. Hu H224, 225
  287. Hu G223
  288. Huang JJ92
  289. Huang C92
  290. Huiart L226
  291. Husseini A227
  292. Iannarone M1
  293. Iburg KM228
  294. Innos K229
  295. Inoue M230
  296. Jacobsen KH232
  297. Jassal SK152
  298. Jeemon P233
  299. Jensen PN6
  300. Jha V234
  301. Jiang G235
  302. Jiang Y141
  303. Jonas JB236
  304. Joseph J1
  305. Juel K237
  306. Kan H239
  307. Karch A240
  308. Karimkhani C241
  309. Karthikeyan G242
  310. Katz R4
  311. Kaul A243
  312. Kawakami N231
  313. Kazi DS199
  314. Kemp AH95
  315. Kengne AP244
  316. Khader YS245
  317. Khalifa SEAH246
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  319. Khan G248
  320. Khang YH249
  321. Khonelidze I250
  322. Kieling C251
  323. Kim D252
  324. Kim S253
  325. Kimokoti RW254
  326. Kinfu Y255
  327. Kinge JM17
  328. Kissela BM256
  329. Kivipelto M50
  330. Knibbs L9
  331. Knudsen AK17
  332. Kokubo Y257
  333. Kosen S258
  334. Kramer A259
  335. Kravchenko M261
  336. Krishnamurthi RV14
  337. Krishnaswami S262
  338. Defo BK263
  339. Bicer BK264
  340. Kuipers EJ266
  341. Kulkarni VS267
  342. Kumar K268
  343. Kumar GA157
  344. Kwan GF269
  345. Lai T270
  346. Lalloo R271
  347. Lam H163
  348. Lan Q272
  349. Lansingh VC273
  350. Larson H219
  351. Larsson A69
  352. Lawrynowicz AEB274
  353. Leasher JL275
  354. Lee JT276
  355. Leigh J106
  356. Leung R277
  357. Levi M278
  358. Li B281
  359. Li Y12
  360. Li Y12
  361. Liang J282
  362. Lim S1
  363. Lin HH137
  364. Lind M1
  365. Lindsay MP283
  366. Lipshultz SE284
  367. Liu S12
  368. Lloyd BK191, 285
  369. Ohno SL1
  370. Logroscino G286
  371. Looker KJ204
  372. Lopez AD1, 32
  373. Lopezolmedo N16
  374. Lortettieulent J287
  375. Lotufo PA95
  376. Low N288
  377. Lucas RM289
  378. Lunevicius R290
  379. Lyons RA291
  380. Ma J12
  381. Ma S292
  382. Mackay MT294
  383. Majdan M117
  384. Malekzadeh R181
  385. Mapoma CC295
  386. Marcenes W66
  387. March LM106
  388. Margono C1
  389. Marks GB105
  390. Marzan MB296
  391. Masci JR297
  392. Masonjones AJ298
  393. Matzopoulos RG299
  394. Mayosi BM300
  395. Mazorodze TT301
  396. Mcgill NW302
  397. Mcgrath JJ9
  398. Mckee M219
  399. Mclain A1
  400. Mcmahon BJ303
  401. Meaney PA304
  402. Mehndiratta MM306
  403. Mejiarodriguez F16
  404. Mekonnen W97
  405. Melaku YA22
  406. Meltzer M307
  407. Memish ZA53
  408. Mensah G308
  409. Meretoja A32
  410. Mhimbira FA309
  411. Micha R310
  412. Miller TR312
  413. Mills EJ313
  414. Mitchell PB11
  415. Mock CN6
  416. Moffitt TE314
  417. Ibrahim NM315
  418. Mohammad KA316
  419. Mokdad AH1
  420. Mola GL317
  421. Monasta L91
  422. Montico M91
  423. Montine TJ6
  424. Moore AR318
  425. Moran AE241
  426. Morawska L319
  427. Mori R320
  428. Moschandreas J321
  429. Moturi WN322
  430. Moyer M1
  431. Mozaffarian D310
  432. Mueller UO323
  433. Mukaigawara M324
  434. Murdoch ME325
  435. Murray J1, 143
  436. Murthy KS157
  437. Naghavi P1
  438. Nahas Z326
  439. Naheed A38
  440. Naidoo KS327
  441. Naldi L328
  442. Nand D329
  443. Nangia V330
  444. Narayan KMV332
  445. Nash D333
  446. Nejjari C334
  447. Neupane SP335
  448. Newman LM336
  449. Newton CR337
  450. Ng M1
  451. Ngalesoni FN338
  452. Nhung NT339
  453. Nisar MI101
  454. Nolte S54
  455. Norheim OF340
  456. Norman RE9
  457. Norrving B341
  458. Nyakarahuka L342
  459. Oh IH343
  460. Ohkubo T344
  461. Omer SB332
  462. Opio JN345
  463. Ortiz A346
  464. Pandian JD347
  465. Panelo CIA67
  466. Papachristou C54
  467. Park EK348
  468. Parry CD299
  469. Caicedo AJP56
  470. Patten SB127
  471. Paul VK242
  472. Pavlin BI349
  473. Pearce N219
  474. Pedraza LS16
  475. Pellegrini CA6
  476. Pereira DM350
  477. Perezruiz FP351
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  479. Pervaiz A352
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  486. Piel FB45
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  488. Poenaru D357
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  531. Sanabria JR381
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Source: The Lancet Published:2015


Abstract

Background Up-to-date evidence about levels and trends in disease and injury incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) is an essential input into global, regional, and national health policies. In the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013), we estimated these quantities for acute and chronic diseases and injuries for 188 countries between 1990 and 2013. Methods Estimates were calculated for disease and injury incidence, prevalence, and YLDs using GBD 2010 methods with some important refinements. Results for incidence of acute disorders and prevalence of chronic disorders are new additions to the analysis. Key improvements include expansion to the cause and sequelae list, updated systematic reviews, use of detailed injury codes, improvements to the Bayesian meta-regression method (DisMod-MR), and use of severity splits for various causes. An index of data representativeness, showing data availability, was calculated for each cause and impairment during three periods globally and at the country level for 2013. In total, 35 620 distinct sources of data were used and documented to calculated estimates for 301 diseases and injuries and 2337 sequelae. The comorbidity simulation provides estimates for the number of sequelae, concurrently, by individuals by country, year, age, and sex. Disability weights were updated with the addition of new population-based survey data from four countries. Findings Disease and injury were highly prevalent; only a small fraction of individuals had no sequelae. Comorbidity rose substantially with age and in absolute terms from 1990 to 2013. Incidence of acute sequelae were predominantly infectious diseases and short-term injuries, with over 2 billion cases of upper respiratory infections and diarrhoeal disease episodes in 2013, with the notable exception of tooth pain due to permanent caries with more than 200 million incident cases in 2013. Conversely, leading chronic sequelae were largely attributable to non-communicable diseases, with prevalence estimates for asymptomatic permanent caries and tension-type headache of 2·4 billion and 1·6 billion, respectively. The distribution of the number of sequelae in populations varied widely across regions, with an expected relation between age and disease prevalence. YLDs for both sexes increased from 537·6 million in 1990 to 764·8 million in 2013 due to population growth and ageing, whereas the age-standardised rate decreased little from 114·87 per 1000 people to 110·31 per 1000 people between 1990 and 2013. Leading causes of YLDs included low back pain and major depressive disorder among the top ten causes of YLDs in every country. YLD rates per person, by major cause groups, indicated the main drivers of increases were due to musculoskeletal, mental, and substance use disorders, neurological disorders, and chronic respiratory diseases; however HIV/AIDS was a notable driver of increasing YLDs in sub-Saharan Africa. Also, the proportion of disability-adjusted life years due to YLDs increased globally from 21·1% in 1990 to 31·2% in 2013. Interpretation Ageing of the world's population is leading to a substantial increase in the numbers of individuals with sequelae of diseases and injuries. Rates of YLDs are declining much more slowly than mortality rates. The non-fatal dimensions of disease and injury will require more and more attention from health systems. The transition to non-fatal outcomes as the dominant source of burden of disease is occurring rapidly outside of sub-Saharan Africa. Our results can guide future health initiatives through examination of epidemiological trends and a better understanding of variation across countries. © 2015 Elsevier Ltd.
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