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Development of a Digestive Cancer Risk Score Based on Nutritional Predictors: A Risk Prediction Model in the Golestan Cohort Study Publisher Pubmed



Jabbari M1 ; Barati M2 ; Kalhori A3 ; Einizinab H1 ; Zayeri F4 ; Poustchi H5 ; Pourshams A6 ; Hekmatdoost A7 ; Malekzadeh R6
Authors
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Authors Affiliations
  1. 1. Department of Community Nutrition, Faculty of Nutrition Sciences and Food Technology, National Nutrition and Food Technology Research Institute, Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
  2. 2. Department of Cellular and Molecular Nutrition, School of Nutrition Sciences and Dietetics, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
  3. 3. Department of Food Science and Technology, Nutritional Science, The Ohio State University, Columbus, OH, United States
  4. 4. Proteomics Research Center and Department of Biostatistics, Faculty of Allied Medical Sciences, Shahid BeheshtiUniversity of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
  5. 5. Liver and Pancreaticobiliary Disease Research Center, Digestive Diseases Research Institute, Shariati Hospital, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
  6. 6. Digestive Oncology Research Center, Digestive Diseases Research Institute, Shariati Hospital, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
  7. 7. Department of Clinical Nutrition and Dietetics, Faculty of Nutrition and Food Technology, National Nutrition and Food Technology Research Institute, Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran

Source: Nutrition and Cancer Published:2025


Abstract

This study aimed to develop a non-laboratory simple and useful scoring system to predict risk of incident digestive cancers within the healthcare and clinical framework in Iranian population. The present study was conducted on the collected data from the Golestan Cohort Study. A total of 49,173 participants, aged 37-80 years, were recruited from Gonbad City and 326 rural villages and were followed from 2004 to 2021 in Iran. A non-laboratory model for prediction of the 15-year risk of digestive cancers by means of dietary predictors and formulating a simple and useful scoring system in Iranian population was done in this study. A total of 43550 participants (25249 women and 18301 men) were included in the final analysis. The model’s discrimination and calibration were assessed by concordance statistic (C-statistic) and calibration plot, respectively. The model had an acceptable discrimination in both derivation (C-statistic: 0.76) and validation (C-statistic: 0.70) samples (p < 0.001). Also, the calibration of model in derivation and validation datasets was 0.88 and 0.91, respectively. As an assessment tool, the established simple and practical nutritional risk score is suitable for motivating at-risk individuals to change lifestyles and dietary patterns to reduce future risks and prevent health problems. © 2025 Taylor & Francis Group, LLC.
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