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Recent Cancer Incidence Trends and Short-Term Predictions in Golestan, Iran 2004–2025 Publisher Pubmed



Roshandel G1 ; Ferlay J2 ; Semnani S1 ; Fazel A3 ; Naeimitabiei M3 ; Ashaari M4 ; Amiriani T1 ; Honarvar M5 ; Sedaghat S6 ; Hasanpourheidari S1 ; Salamat F1 ; Mansoury M7 ; Ghasemikebria F1 ; Mirkarimi H1 Show All Authors
Authors
  1. Roshandel G1
  2. Ferlay J2
  3. Semnani S1
  4. Fazel A3
  5. Naeimitabiei M3
  6. Ashaari M4
  7. Amiriani T1
  8. Honarvar M5
  9. Sedaghat S6
  10. Hasanpourheidari S1
  11. Salamat F1
  12. Mansoury M7
  13. Ghasemikebria F1
  14. Mirkarimi H1
  15. Jafaridelouei N1
  16. Shokoohifar N1
  17. Vignat J2
  18. Weiderpass E8
  19. Malekzadeh R9
  20. Bray F2
Show Affiliations
Authors Affiliations
  1. 1. Golestan Research Center of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Golestan University of Medical Sciences, Gorgan, Iran
  2. 2. Section for Cancer Surveillance, International Agency for Research in Cancer, Lyon, France
  3. 3. Cancer Research Center, Golestan University of Medical Sciences, Gorgan, Iran
  4. 4. Department of Pathology, Sayyad Shirazi Hospital, Golestan University of Medical Sciences, Gorgan, Iran
  5. 5. Deputy of Research and Technology, Golestan University of Medical Sciences, Gorgan, Iran
  6. 6. Deputy of Public Health, Golestan University of Medical Sciences, Gorgan, Iran
  7. 7. Statistics and Information Technology Office, Golestan University of Medical Sciences, Gorgan, Iran
  8. 8. International Agency for Research in Cancer, World Health Organization, Lyon, France
  9. 9. Digestive Oncology Research Center, Digestive Disease Research Institute, Shariati Hospital, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran

Source: Cancer Epidemiology Published:2020


Abstract

Background: We examine recent trends in the major cancers occurring in the Golestan province, a high-risk region for upper gastrointestinal cancers in Northern Iran, and provide short-term cancer predictions of the future cancer burden. Methods: New cancer cases diagnosed in Golestan 2004–2016 were obtained from the Golestan population-based cancer registry (GPCR) database, and age-standardized rates by cancer site, year and sex calculated per 100,000 person-years. Using IARC's DepPred package we fitted time-linear age-period models to the available GPCR data to predict the cancer incidence burden in the year 2025. We calculated the contribution of demographic changes versus changes in risk to the overall changes in incidence from 2016 to 2025. Results: The number of new cancer cases (excluding non-melanoma skin cancers) in 2025 is predicted to increase by 61.3% from 2678 cases in 2016 to 4319 cases. While a 17.6% reduction in the number of esophageal cancer cases is predicted by 2025, the number of new cases for each of the remaining major cancers is predicted to increase over the next decade, including cancers of the stomach (a 36.1% increase from 2016 to 2025), colorectum (56.2%), lung (67.8%), female breast (93.2%), prostate (101.8%) and leukemia (96.1%). The changes in the population structure and risk contributed 37.8% and 23.5% respectively, to the overall increase in incidence. Conclusion: Other than for the major upper gastrointestinal cancer types, the incidence rates of common cancers observed in the province are on the rise, reinforcing the need for continuous surveillance, as well as the design and implementation of effective cancer control programs. © 2020
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