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Global, Regional, and National Burden of Low Back Pain, 1990–2020, Its Attributable Risk Factors, and Projections to 2050: A Systematic Analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 Publisher



Ferreira ML1 ; De Luca K4 ; Haile LM5 ; Steinmetz JD5 ; Culbreth GT5 ; Cross M1 ; Kopec JA8, 9 ; Ferreira PH1 ; Blyth FM1 ; Buchbinder R10, 12 ; Hartvigsen J13, 14 ; Wu AM15 ; Safiri S16, 17 ; Woolf AD22 Show All Authors
Authors
  1. Ferreira ML1
  2. De Luca K4
  3. Haile LM5
  4. Steinmetz JD5
  5. Culbreth GT5
  6. Cross M1
  7. Kopec JA8, 9
  8. Ferreira PH1
  9. Blyth FM1
  10. Buchbinder R10, 12
  11. Hartvigsen J13, 14
  12. Wu AM15
  13. Safiri S16, 17
  14. Woolf AD22
  15. Collins GS23
  16. Ong KL5
  17. Vollset SE5, 6
  18. Smith AE5
  19. Cruz JA5
  20. Fukutaki KG24
  21. Abate SM25
  22. Abbasifard M26, 27
  23. Abbasikangevari M28
  24. Abbasikangevari Z28, 41
  25. Abdelalim A47
  26. Abedi A48, 49
  27. Abidi H51
  28. Adnani QES53, 54
  29. Ahmadi A42, 55
  30. Akinyemi RO58, 63
  31. Alamer AT64
  32. Alem AZ65
  33. Alimohamadi Y68
  34. Alshehri MA70
  35. Alshehri MM71
  36. Alzahrani H72
  37. Amini S73
  38. Amiri S69
  39. Amu H74
  40. Andrei CL75
  41. Andrei T76
  42. Antony B77
  43. Arabloo J78
  44. Arulappan J80
  45. Arumugam A81, 83
  46. Ashraf T84
  47. Athari SS86
  48. Awoke N87
  49. Azadnajafabad S28
  50. Barnighausen TW88, 89
  51. Barrero LH91
  52. Barrow A92, 93
  53. Barzegar A94
  54. Bearne LM97, 98
  55. Bensenor IM99
  56. Berhie AY101
  57. Bhandari BB102
  58. Bhojaraja VS103
  59. Bijani A105
  60. Bodicha BBA106
  61. Bolla SR108
  62. Brazosayavera J109
  63. Briggs AM110
  64. Cao C112
  65. Charalampous P113
  66. Chattu VK114, 115
  67. Cicuttini FM11
  68. Clarsen B116, 117
  69. Cuschieri S118
  70. Dadras O119, 120
  71. Dai X5, 6
  72. Dandona L5, 122, 123
  73. Dandona R5, 6, 122
  74. Dehghan A124
  75. Demie TGG125, 126
  76. Denovagutierrez E127
  77. Dewan SMR128, 129
  78. Dharmaratne SD5, 6, 130
  79. Dhimal ML131, 132
  80. Dhimal M133
  81. Diaz D135, 136
  82. Didehdar M137
  83. Digesa LE107
  84. Diress M66
  85. Do HT139
  86. Doan LP140, 141
  87. Ekholuenetale M59, 60
  88. Elhadi M142
  89. Eskandarieh S29
  90. Faghani S30
  91. Fares J143
  92. Fatehizadeh A144
  93. Fetensa G145
  94. Filip I147, 148
  95. Fischer F149, 150
  96. Franklin RC151
  97. Ganesan B152, 153
  98. Gemeda BNB154
  99. Getachew ME146, 155
  100. Ghashghaee A156
  101. Gill TK157
  102. Golechha M159
  103. Goleij P160
  104. Gupta B161
  105. Hafezinejad N31, 165
  106. Hajmirzaian A43, 44
  107. Hamal PK134, 162, 163
  108. Hanif A85
  109. Harlianto NI164, 165
  110. Hasani H166
  111. Hay SI5, 6
  112. Hebert JJ167, 168
  113. Heidari G169
  114. Heidari M56
  115. Heidarisoureshjani R40
  116. Hlongwa MM170
  117. Hosseini MS18
  118. Hsiao AK171
  119. Iavicoli I172
  120. Ibitoye SE61
  121. Ilic IM173
  122. Ilic MD174
  123. Islam SMS2, 175
  124. Janodia MD176
  125. Jha RP178, 179
  126. Jindal HA180
  127. Jonas JB181, 182
  128. Kabito GG67
  129. Kandel H3, 183
  130. Kaur RJ184
  131. Keshri VR185, 187
  132. Khader YS188
  133. Khan EA189
  134. Khan MJ190
  135. Khan MAB191, 192
  136. Kashani HRK45
  137. Khubchandani J193
  138. Kim YJ194
  139. Kisa A195, 196
  140. Klugarova J158, 197
  141. Kolahi AA41
  142. Koohestani HR198
  143. Koyanagi A199, 200
  144. Kumar GA122
  145. Kumar N201
  146. Lallukka T202
  147. Lasrado S203
  148. Lee WC204
  149. Lee YH205
  150. Mahmoodpoor A19
  151. Malagonrojas JN206, 207
  152. Malekpour MR28
  153. Malekzadeh R32, 208
  154. Malih N211
  155. Mehndiratta MM212, 213
  156. Nasab EM33
  157. Menezes RG214
  158. Mentis AFA215
  159. Mesregah MK216
  160. Miller TR111, 217
  161. Mirzaaghazadehattari M20, 218
  162. Mobarakabadi M220
  163. Mohammad Y221
  164. Mohammadi E31, 40
  165. Mohammed S222, 223
  166. Mokdad AH5, 6
  167. Momtazmanesh S28, 34
  168. Monasta L224
  169. Moni MA225
  170. Mostafavi E226, 227
  171. Murray CJL5, 6
  172. Nair TS228
  173. Nazari J138
  174. Nejadghaderi SA46, 229
  175. Neupane S231
  176. Kandel SN232
  177. Nguyen CT233
  178. Nowroozi A34
  179. Okatialiabad H234
  180. Omer E235
  181. Oulhaj A236
  182. Owolabi MO62, 237
  183. Pandajonas S238
  184. Pandey A121
  185. Park EK239
  186. Pawar S240
  187. Pedersini P241
  188. Pereira J242
  189. Peres MFP100, 243
  190. Petcu IR76
  191. Pourahmadi M79
  192. Radfar A244
  193. Rahimidehgolan S35
  194. Rahimimovaghar V36
  195. Rahman M245
  196. Rahmani AM246
  197. Rajai N90
  198. Rao CR177
  199. Rashedi V247
  200. Rashidi MM27, 41
  201. Ratan ZA248, 249
  202. Rawaf DL250, 252
  203. Rawaf S251, 253
  204. Renzaho AMN254, 255
  205. Rezaei N28, 37
  206. Rezaei Z95
  207. Roever L256
  208. De Andrade Ruela G257
  209. Saddik B82
  210. Sahebkar A258, 259
  211. Salehi S50
  212. Sanmarchi F260
  213. Sepanlou SG32, 208
  214. Shahabi S209
  215. Shahrokhi S38, 261
  216. Shaker E31, 229
  217. Shamsi MB96
  218. Shannawaz M262
  219. Sharma S187, 263
  220. Shaygan M210
  221. Sheikhi RA57
  222. Shetty JK104
  223. Shiri R264
  224. Shivalli S265
  225. Shobeiri P31, 230
  226. Sibhat MM266
  227. Singh A77
  228. Singh JA267, 268
  229. Slater H110
  230. Solmi M269
  231. Somayaji R7, 270
  232. Tan KK272
  233. Thapar R274
  234. Tohidast SA275
  235. Tahbaz SV276, 277
  236. Valizadeh R219
  237. Vasankari TJ278, 279
  238. Venketasubramanian N273, 280
  239. Vlassov V281
  240. Vo B282
  241. Wang YP100
  242. Wiangkham T283
  243. Yadav L186, 284
  244. Yadollahpour A285
  245. Jabbari SHY276
  246. Yang L271, 286
  247. Yazdanpanah F21, 39
  248. Yonemoto N287, 288
  249. Younis MZ289, 290
  250. Zare I291
  251. Zarrintan A20
  252. Zoladl M52
  253. Vos T5, 6
  254. March LM1, 292

Source: The Lancet Rheumatology Published:2023


Abstract

Background: Low back pain is highly prevalent and the main cause of years lived with disability (YLDs). We present the most up-to-date global, regional, and national data on prevalence and YLDs for low back pain from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2021. Methods: Population-based studies from 1980 to 2019 identified in a systematic review, international surveys, US medical claims data, and dataset contributions by collaborators were used to estimate the prevalence and YLDs for low back pain from 1990 to 2020, for 204 countries and territories. Low back pain was defined as pain between the 12th ribs and the gluteal folds that lasted a day or more; input data using alternative definitions were adjusted in a network meta-regression analysis. Nested Bayesian meta-regression models were used to estimate prevalence and YLDs by age, sex, year, and location. Prevalence was projected to 2050 by running a regression on prevalence rates using Socio-demographic Index as a predictor, then multiplying them by projected population estimates. Findings: In 2020, low back pain affected 619 million (95% uncertainty interval 554–694) people globally, with a projection of 843 million (759–933) prevalent cases by 2050. In 2020, the global age-standardised rate of YLDs was 832 per 100 000 (578–1070). Between 1990 and 2020, age-standardised rates of prevalence and YLDs decreased by 10·4% (10·9–10·0) and 10·5% (11·1–10·0), respectively. A total of 38·8% (28·7–47·0) of YLDs were attributed to occupational factors, smoking, and high BMI. Interpretation: Low back pain remains the leading cause of YLDs globally, and in 2020, there were more than half a billion prevalent cases of low back pain worldwide. While age-standardised rates have decreased modestly over the past three decades, it is projected that globally in 2050, more than 800 million people will have low back pain. Challenges persist in obtaining primary country-level data on low back pain, and there is an urgent need for more high-quality, primary, country-level data on both prevalence and severity distributions to improve accuracy and monitor change. Funding: Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2023 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license
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