Tehran University of Medical Sciences

Science Communicator Platform

Stay connected! Follow us on X network (Twitter):
Share this content! On (X network) By
Global, Regional, and National Burden of Gout, 1990–2020, and Projections to 2050: A Systematic Analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 Publisher



Cross M1, 3 ; Ong KL4 ; Culbreth GT4 ; Steinmetz JD4 ; Cousin E4, 5 ; Kopec JA7, 8 ; Haile LM4 ; Brooks PM9 ; Kopanskygiles DR10, 11 ; Dreinhoefer KE3, 12 ; Betteridge N13 ; Abbasian M11, 15 ; Abbasifard M17, 18 ; Abedi A19, 20 Show All Authors
Authors
  1. Cross M1, 3
  2. Ong KL4
  3. Culbreth GT4
  4. Steinmetz JD4
  5. Cousin E4, 5
  6. Kopec JA7, 8
  7. Haile LM4
  8. Brooks PM9
  9. Kopanskygiles DR10, 11
  10. Dreinhoefer KE3, 12
  11. Betteridge N13
  12. Abbasian M11, 15
  13. Abbasifard M17, 18
  14. Abedi A19, 20
  15. Aboye MB21
  16. Aravkin AY4, 5, 6
  17. Artaman A22
  18. Banach M23, 24
  19. Bensenor IM25
  20. Bhagavathula AS26
  21. Bhat AN27
  22. Bitaraf S28
  23. Buchbinder R29, 31
  24. Burkart K4, 5
  25. Chu DT32
  26. Chung SC33, 34
  27. Dadras O35, 36
  28. Dai X4, 5
  29. Das S39
  30. Dhingra S40
  31. Do TC41
  32. Edinur HA42
  33. Fatehizadeh A43
  34. Fetensa G44
  35. Freitas M45
  36. Ganesan B46
  37. Gholami A47, 48
  38. Gill TK49
  39. Golechha M50
  40. Goleij P51, 52
  41. Hafezinejad N37, 53
  42. Hamidi S54
  43. Hay SI4, 5
  44. Hundessa S30
  45. Iso H55
  46. Jayaram S56
  47. Kadashetti V57
  48. Karaye IM58, 59
  49. Khan EA60
  50. Khan MAB61, 62
  51. Khatatbeh MM63
  52. Kiadaliri A64
  53. Kim MS65
  54. Kolahi AA16
  55. Krishan K66
  56. Kumar N67
  57. Le TTT69
  58. Lim SS4, 5
  59. Lobo SW70, 71
  60. Majeed A72
  61. Malik AA73, 74
  62. Mesregah MK75
  63. Mestrovic T4, 76
  64. Mirrakhimov EM77, 78
  65. Mishra M79
  66. Misra AK80
  67. Moberg ME4
  68. Mohamed NS81, 82
  69. Mohan S83, 84
  70. Mokdad AH4, 5
  71. Momenzadeh K14
  72. Moni MA85
  73. Moradi Y86
  74. Mougin V4
  75. Mukhopadhyay S87
  76. Murray CJL4, 5
  77. Swamy SN88
  78. Nguyen VT68
  79. Niazi RK89
  80. Owolabi MO90, 91
  81. Padubidri JR92
  82. Patel J93, 94
  83. Pawar S95
  84. Pedersini P96
  85. Rafferty Q4
  86. Rahman M97
  87. Rashidi MM16, 38
  88. Rawaf S72, 98
  89. Saad AMA99
  90. Sahebkar A100, 101
  91. Sharifaskari FS102
  92. Saleh MA103, 104
  93. Schumacher AE4
  94. Seylani A105
  95. Singh P106
  96. Smith AE4
  97. Solanki R107, 108
  98. Solomon Y109
  99. Tan KK110
  100. Tat NY111, 112
  101. Tibebu NSS113
  102. You Y2, 114
  103. Zheng P4, 5
  104. Zitoun OA115, 116
  105. Vos T4, 5
  106. March LM1, 117
  107. Woolf AD118, 119
Show Affiliations
Authors Affiliations
  1. 1. Faculty of Medicine and Health, University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW, Australia
  2. 2. Save Sight Institute, University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW, Australia
  3. 3. Global Alliance for Musculoskeletal Health, Sydney, NSW, Australia
  4. 4. Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, United States
  5. 5. Department of Health Metrics Sciences, School of Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, United States
  6. 6. Department of Applied Mathematics, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, United States
  7. 7. School of Population and Public Health, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada
  8. 8. Arthritis Research Canada, Richmond, BC, Canada
  9. 9. Centre for Health Policy, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, VIC, Australia
  10. 10. Department of Family and Community Medicine, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada
  11. 11. Department of Research and Innovation, Canadian Memorial Chiropractic College, Toronto, ON, Canada
  12. 12. Center of Musculoskeletal Surgery, Charite Universitatsmedizin Berlin, Berlin, Germany
  13. 13. London, United Kingdom
  14. 14. Department of Orthopedic Surgery, Harvard University, Boston, MA, United States
  15. 15. Department of Orthopaedic Surgery, Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
  16. 16. Social Determinants of Health Research Center, Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
  17. 17. Department of Internal Medicine, Rafsanjan University of Medical Sciences, Rafsanjan, Iran
  18. 18. Clinical Research Development Unit, Rafsanjan University of Medical Sciences, Rafsanjan, Iran
  19. 19. Department of Neurosurgery, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA, United States
  20. 20. Keck School of Medicine, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA, United States
  21. 21. Department of Anesthesia, Jimma University, Jimma, Ethiopia
  22. 22. Department of Health Sciences, Zayed University, Dubai, United Arab Emirates
  23. 23. Department of Hypertension, Medical University of Lodz, Lodz, Poland
  24. 24. Polish Mothers' Memorial Hospital Research Institute, Lodz, Poland
  25. 25. Department of Internal Medicine, University of Sao Paulo, Sao Paulo, Brazil
  26. 26. Department of Public Health, North Dakota State University, Fargo, ND, United States
  27. 27. Department of General Medicine, Manipal Academy of Higher Education, Mangalore, India
  28. 28. Department of Biostatistics and Epidemiology, Ahvaz Jundishapur University of Medical Sciences, Ahvaz, Iran
  29. 29. School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, VIC, Australia
  30. 30. Department of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, VIC, Australia
  31. 31. Monash Department of Clinical Epidemiology, Cabrini Hospital, Cabrini Institute, Melbourne, VIC, Australia
  32. 32. Center for Biomedicine and Community Health, International School, Vietnam National University Hanoi (VNUIS), Hanoi, Viet Nam
  33. 33. Department of Health Informatics, University College London, London, United Kingdom
  34. 34. Health Data Research UK, London, United Kingdom
  35. 35. Department of Global Public Health and Primary Care, University of Bergen, Bergen, Norway
  36. 36. Iranian Research Center for HIV/ AIDS (IRCHA), Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
  37. 37. School of Medicine, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
  38. 38. Non-communicable Diseases Research Center, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
  39. 39. Department of Biochemistry, Ministry of Health and Welfare, New Delhi, India
  40. 40. Department of Pharmacy Practice, National Institute of Pharmaceutical Education and Research Hajipur, Hajipur, India
  41. 41. Department of Medicine, Pham Ngoc Thach University of Medicine, Ho Chi Minh City, Viet Nam
  42. 42. School of Health Sciences, Universiti Sains Malaysia, Kubang Kerian, Malaysia
  43. 43. Department of Environmental Health Engineering, Isfahan University of Medical Sciences, Isfahan, Iran
  44. 44. Department of Nursing, Wollega University, Nekemte, Ethiopia
  45. 45. Associated Laboratory for Green Chemistry (LAQV), University of Porto, Porto, Portugal
  46. 46. Institute of Health and Wellbeing, Federation University Australia, Churchill, VIC, Australia
  47. 47. Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Neyshabur University of Medical Sciences, Neyshabur, Iran
  48. 48. Non-Communicable Diseases Research Center, Neyshabur University of Medical Sciences, Neyshabur, Iran
  49. 49. Adelaide Medical School, University of Adelaide, Adelaide, SA, Australia
  50. 50. Department of Health Systems and Policy Research, Indian Institute of Public Health, Gandhinagar, India
  51. 51. Department of Genetics, Sana Institute of Higher Education, Sari, Iran
  52. 52. Universal Scientific Education and Research Network (USERN), Kermanshah University of Medical Sciences, Kermanshah, Iran
  53. 53. Department of Radiology and Radiological Science, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, United States
  54. 54. School of Health and Environmental Studies, Hamdan Bin Mohammed Smart University, Dubai, United Arab Emirates
  55. 55. Department of Public Health of Social Medicine, Osaka University, Suita, Japan
  56. 56. Department of Biochemistry, Government Medical College, Mysuru, India
  57. 57. Department of Oral and Maxillofacial Pathology, Krishna Vishwa Vidyapeeth (Deemed to Be University), Karad, India
  58. 58. School of Health Professions and Human Services, Hofstra University, Hempstead, NY, United States
  59. 59. Department of Anesthesiology, Montefiore Medical Center, Bronx, NY, United States
  60. 60. Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Health Services Academy, Islamabad, Pakistan
  61. 61. Family Medicine Department, United Arab Emirates University, Al Ain, United Arab Emirates
  62. 62. Primary Care Department, NHS North West London, London, United Kingdom
  63. 63. Department of Basic Medical Sciences, Yarmouk University, Irbid, Jordan
  64. 64. Clinical Epidemiology Unit, Lund University, Lund, Sweden
  65. 65. Broad Institute of MIT and Harvard, Cambridge, MA, United States
  66. 66. Department of Anthropology, Panjab University, Chandigarh, India
  67. 67. Department of Orthopaedics, Apollomedics Hospital, Lucknow, India
  68. 68. Department of General Medicine, Ho Chi Minh City, Viet Nam
  69. 69. University of Medicine and Pharmacy at Ho Chi Minh City, Ho Chi Minh City, Viet Nam
  70. 70. Liberty University, School of Osteopathic Medicine, Lynchburg, VA, United States
  71. 71. Department of Biomedical Sciences, Mercer University, Macon, GA, United States
  72. 72. Department of Primary Care and Public Health, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom
  73. 73. Faculty of Medicine in Rabigh, King Abdulaziz University, Jeddah, Saudi Arabia
  74. 74. The University of Lahore, Lahore, Pakistan
  75. 75. Faculty of Medicine, Menoufia University, Shebin El-Kom, Egypt
  76. 76. University Centre Varazdin, University North, Varazdin, Croatia
  77. 77. Internal Medicine Programme, Kyrgyz State Medical Academy, Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan
  78. 78. Department of Atherosclerosis and Coronary Heart Disease, National Center of Cardiology and Internal Disease, Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan
  79. 79. Department of Biomedical Sciences, Mercer University, School of Medicine, Macon, GA, United States
  80. 80. Department of Pharmacology, All India Institute of Medical Sciences, Mangalagiri, India
  81. 81. Molecular Biology Unit, Sirius Training and Research Centre, Khartoum, Sudan
  82. 82. Bio-Statistical and Molecular Biology Department, Sirius Training and Research Centre, Khartoum, Sudan
  83. 83. Substance Abuse and Toxicology Research Center, Jazan University, Jazan, Saudi Arabia
  84. 84. School of Health Sciences, University of Petroleum and Energy Studies, Dehradun, India
  85. 85. Charles Sturt University, The University of Queensland, Bathurst, NSW, Australia
  86. 86. Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Kurdistan University of Medical Sciences, Sanandaj, Iran
  87. 87. Department of Endocrinology & Metabolism, Institute of Post-Graduate Medical Education and Research, Seth Sukhlal Karnani Memorial Hospital, Kolkata, India
  88. 88. Mysore Medical College and Research Institute, Government Medical College, Mysore, India
  89. 89. International Islamic University Islamabad, Islamabad, Pakistan
  90. 90. Department of Medicine, University of Ibadan, Ibadan, Nigeria
  91. 91. Department of Medicine, University College Hospital, Ibadan, Nigeria
  92. 92. Department of Forensic Medicine and Toxicology, Kasturba Medical College, Mangalore, India
  93. 93. Global Health Governance Programme, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, United Kingdom
  94. 94. School of Dentistry, University of Leeds, Leeds, United Kingdom
  95. 95. Department of Genetics, Yale University, New Haven, CT, United States
  96. 96. Clinical Research Department, IRCCS Fondazione Don Carlo Gnocchi, Milan, Italy
  97. 97. Department of Population Science and Human Resource Development, University of Rajshahi, Rajshahi, Bangladesh
  98. 98. Academic Public Health England, Public Health England, London, United Kingdom
  99. 99. Cardiovascular Department, Zagazig University, Zagazig, Egypt
  100. 100. Applied Biomedical Research Center, Mashhad University of Medical Sciences, Mashhad, Iran
  101. 101. Biotechnology Research Center, Mashhad University of Medical Sciences, Mashhad, Iran
  102. 102. Sharjah Institute of Medical Sciences, University of Sharjah, Sharjah, United Arab Emirates
  103. 103. College of Medicine, University of Sharjah, Sharjah, United Arab Emirates
  104. 104. Faculty of Pharmacy, Mansoura University, Mansoura, Egypt
  105. 105. National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute, National Institute of Health, Rockville, MD, United States
  106. 106. Department of Radiodiagnosis, All India Institute of Medical Sciences, Bathinda, India
  107. 107. Department of Systemic Pathology, Touro College of Osteopathic Medicine, Middletown, NY, United States
  108. 108. Department of Pathology, American University, The Caribbean School of Medicine, Cupecoy, Saint Martin (French Part)
  109. 109. Department of Nursing, Dire Dawa University, Dire Dawa, Ethiopia
  110. 110. Department of Surgery, National University of Singapore, Singapore
  111. 111. Department of Economics, Rice University, Houston, TX, United States
  112. 112. Department of Research and Innovation, Enventure Medical Innovation, Houston, TX, United States
  113. 113. Department of Pediatrics and Child Health Nursing, Debre Tabor University, Debre Tabor, Ethiopia
  114. 114. Macquarie Medical School, Macquarie University, Sydney, NSW, Australia
  115. 115. School of Public Health Sciences, University of Waterloo, Waterloo, ON, Canada
  116. 116. College of Medicine, Sulaiman Alrajhi University, Al Bukairiyah, Saudi Arabia
  117. 117. Department of Rheumatology, Royal North Shore Hospital, St Leonards, NSW, Australia
  118. 118. Osteoporosis Research Group, Royal Cornwall Hospital, Malmo, Sweden
  119. 119. Global Alliance for Musculoskeletal Health, Truro, United Kingdom

Source: The Lancet Rheumatology Published:2024


Abstract

Background: Gout is an inflammatory arthritis manifesting as acute episodes of severe joint pain and swelling, which can progress to chronic tophaceous or chronic erosive gout, or both. Here, we present the most up-to-date global, regional, and national estimates for prevalence and years lived with disability (YLDs) due to gout by sex, age, and location from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021, as well as forecasted prevalence to 2050. Methods: Gout prevalence and YLDs from 1990 to 2020 were estimated by drawing on population-based data from 35 countries and claims data from the USA and Taiwan (province of China). Nested Bayesian meta-regression models were used to estimate prevalence and YLDs due to gout by age, sex, and location. Prevalence was forecast to 2050 with a mixed-effects model. Findings: In 2020, 55·8 million (95% uncertainty interval 44·4–69·8) people globally had gout, with an age-standardised prevalence of 659·3 (525·4–822·3) per 100 000, an increase of 22·5% (20·9–24·2) since 1990. Globally, the prevalence of gout in 2020 was 3·26 (3·11–3·39) times higher in males than in females and increased with age. The total number of prevalent cases of gout is estimated to reach 95·8 million (81·1–116) in 2050, with population growth being the largest contributor to this increase and only a very small contribution from the forecasted change in gout prevalence. Age-standardised gout prevalence in 2050 is forecast to be 667 (531–830) per 100 000 population. The global age-standardised YLD rate of gout was 20·5 (14·4–28·2) per 100 000 population in 2020. High BMI accounted for 34·3% (27·7–40·6) of YLDs due to gout and kidney dysfunction accounted for 11·8% (9·3–14·2). Interpretation: Our forecasting model estimates that the number of individuals with gout will increase by more than 70% from 2020 to 2050, primarily due to population growth and ageing. With the association between gout disability and high BMI, dietary and lifestyle modifications focusing on bodyweight reduction are needed at the population level to reduce the burden of gout along with access to interventions to prevent and control flares. Despite the rigour of the standardised GBD methodology and modelling, in many countries, particularly low-income and middle-income countries, estimates are based on modelled rather than primary data and are also lacking severity and disability estimates. We strongly encourage the collection of these data to be included in future GBD iterations. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and the Global Alliance for Musculoskeletal Health. © 2024 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license
Experts (# of related papers)
Other Related Docs