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Global, Regional, and National Burden of Neck Pain, 1990–2020, and Projections to 2050: A Systematic Analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 Publisher



Wu AM1 ; Cross M2, 6 ; Elliott JM7, 8 ; Culbreth GT10 ; Cousin E2, 10 ; Haile LM10 ; Steinmetz JD10 ; Hagins H10 ; Kopec JA13, 14, 200 ; Brooks PM15 ; Woolf AD6, 16 ; Kopanskygiles DR17, 18 ; Walton DM3, 19 ; Treleaven JM20 Show All Authors
Authors
  1. Wu AM1
  2. Cross M2, 6
  3. Elliott JM7, 8
  4. Culbreth GT10
  5. Cousin E2, 10
  6. Haile LM10
  7. Steinmetz JD10
  8. Hagins H10
  9. Kopec JA13, 14, 200
  10. Brooks PM15
  11. Woolf AD6, 16
  12. Kopanskygiles DR17, 18
  13. Walton DM3, 19
  14. Treleaven JM20
  15. Dreinhoefer KE6, 21
  16. Betteridge N23
  17. Abbasifard M24, 25
  18. Abbasikangevari Z26, 30
  19. Addo IY40, 42
  20. Adesina MA43, 44
  21. Adnani QES49
  22. Aithala JP50
  23. Alhalaiqa FAN51, 52
  24. Alimohamadi Y53
  25. Amiri S57
  26. Amu H58
  27. Antony B59
  28. Arabloo J54
  29. Aravkin AY10, 11, 12
  30. Asgharijafarabadi M60, 61
  31. Atomsa GH63
  32. Azadnajafabad S30
  33. Azzam AY65, 66
  34. Baghdadi S67
  35. Balogun SA59
  36. Balta AB68
  37. Banach M71, 72
  38. Banakar M31, 73
  39. Barrow A76, 77
  40. Bashiri A74
  41. Bekele A69
  42. Bensenor IM78
  43. Bhardwaj P80, 81
  44. Bhat AN82
  45. Bilchut AH83
  46. Briggs AM84
  47. Buchbinder R62, 86
  48. Cao C87
  49. Chaurasia A88
  50. Chirinoscaceres JL89
  51. Christensen SWM90, 91
  52. Coberly K10
  53. Dadras O92, 93
  54. Dai X10, 12
  55. De Luca K94
  56. Dehghan A95
  57. Dong HJ96, 97
  58. Ekholuenetale M45, 46
  59. Elhadi M98
  60. Eshetu HB99
  61. Eskandarieh S32
  62. Etaee F101
  63. Fagbamigbe AF45, 103
  64. Fares J9
  65. Fatehizadeh A104
  66. Feizkhah A105
  67. Ferreira ML4
  68. Ferreira N106
  69. Fischer F22
  70. Franklin RC107
  71. Ganesan B108, 109
  72. Gebremichael MA70
  73. Gerema U64
  74. Gholami A110, 111
  75. Ghozy S112
  76. Gill TK113
  77. Golechha M114
  78. Goleij P115, 116
  79. Golinelli D117
  80. Graham SM118, 119
  81. Hajmirzaian A27, 120
  82. Harlianto NI121, 122
  83. Hartvigsen J123, 124
  84. Hasanian M125, 126
  85. Hassen MB10
  86. Hay SI10, 12
  87. Hebert JJ128, 129
  88. Heidari G130
  89. Hoveidaei AH131
  90. Hsiao AK132
  91. Ibitoye SE47
  92. Iwu CCD133
  93. Jacob L134, 135
  94. Janodia MD136
  95. Jin Y137
  96. Jonas JB138, 139
  97. Joshua CE140
  98. Kandel H5, 141
  99. Khader YS142
  100. Khajuria H143
  101. Khan EA144
  102. Khan MAB145, 146
  103. Khatatbeh MM147
  104. Khateri S148
  105. Khayat Kashani HR28
  106. Khonji MS55
  107. Khubchandani J149
  108. Kim YJ150
  109. Kisa A151, 152
  110. Kolahi AA26
  111. Koohestani HR153
  112. Krishan K154
  113. Kuddus M155
  114. Kuttikkattu A156
  115. Lasrado S157
  116. Lee YH158
  117. Legesse SM127
  118. Lim SS10, 12
  119. Liu X159, 160
  120. Lo J10
  121. Malih N162
  122. Manandhar SP163
  123. Mathews E164
  124. Mesregah MK165
  125. Mestrovic T10, 166
  126. Miller TR85, 167
  127. Mirghaderi SR33
  128. Misganaw A12, 126
  129. Mohammadi E34
  130. Mohammed S168, 169
  131. Mokdad AH10, 12
  132. Momtazmanesh S30, 35
  133. Moni MA170
  134. Mostafavi E171
  135. Murray CJL10, 12
  136. Nair TS172
  137. Nejadghaderi SA29, 173
  138. Nzoputam OJ175, 176
  139. Oh IH177
  140. Okonji OC178
  141. Owolabi MO48, 179
  142. Pachecobarrios K180, 181
  143. Pahlevan Fallahy MT36
  144. Park S182
  145. Patel J183, 184
  146. Pawar S102
  147. Pedersini P185
  148. Peres MFP79, 186
  149. Petcu IR187
  150. Pourahmadi M56
  151. Qattea I161
  152. Ram P188
  153. Rashidi MM26, 30
  154. Rawaf S189, 190
  155. Rezaei N30, 37
  156. Rezaei N30, 37
  157. Saeed U191, 192
  158. Saheb Sharifaskari F193
  159. Salahi S194
  160. Sawhney M195
  161. Schumacher AE10
  162. Shafie M38
  163. Shahabi S73
  164. Shahbandi A36
  165. Shamekh A196
  166. Sharma S40, 41, 197
  167. Shiri R198
  168. Shobeiri P34, 174
  169. Sinaei E75
  170. Singh A59
  171. Singh JA198, 199
  172. Singh P201
  173. Skryabina AA202
  174. Smith AE10
  175. Tabish M203
  176. Tan KK204
  177. Tegegne MD100
  178. Tharwat S206
  179. Vahabi SM34
  180. Valadan Tahbaz S207, 208
  181. Vasankari TJ209, 210
  182. Venketasubramanian N205, 211
  183. Vollset SE10, 12
  184. Wang YP79
  185. Wiangkham T212
  186. Yonemoto N213, 214
  187. Zangiabadian M29
  188. Zare I215
  189. Zemedikun DT216, 217
  190. Zheng P10, 12
  191. Ong KL10
  192. Vos T10, 12
  193. March LM2, 218

Source: The Lancet Rheumatology Published:2024


Abstract

Background: Neck pain is a highly prevalent condition that leads to considerable pain, disability, and economic cost. We present the most current estimates of neck pain prevalence and years lived with disability (YLDs) from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) by age, sex, and location, with forecasted prevalence to 2050. Methods: Systematic reviews identified population-representative surveys used to estimate the prevalence of and YLDs from neck pain in 204 countries and territories, spanning from 1990 to 2020, with additional data from opportunistic review. Medical claims data from Taiwan (province of China) were also included. Input data were pooled using DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool. Prevalence was forecast to 2050 using a mixed-effects model using Socio-demographic Index as a predictor and multiplying by projected population estimates. We present 95% UIs for every metric based on the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles of 100 draws of the posterior distribution. Findings: Globally, in 2020, neck pain affected 203 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 163–253) people. The global age-standardised prevalence rate of neck pain was estimated to be 2450 (1960–3040) per 100 000 population and global age-standardised YLD rate was estimated to be 244 (165–346) per 100 000. The age-standardised prevalence rate remained stable between 1990 and 2020 (percentage change 0·2% [–1·3 to 1·7]). Globally, females had a higher age-standardised prevalence rate (2890 [2330–3620] per 100 000) than males (2000 [1600–2480] per 100 000), with the prevalence peaking between 45 years and 74 years in male and female sexes. By 2050, the estimated global number of neck pain cases is projected to be 269 million (219–322), with an increase of 32·5% (23·9–42·3) from 2020 to 2050. Decomposition analysis of the projections showed population growth was the primary contributing factor, followed by population ageing. Interpretation: Although age-standardised rates of neck pain have remained stable over the past three decades, by 2050 the projected case numbers are expected to rise. With the highest prevalence in older adults (higher in females than males), a larger effect expected in low-income and middle-income countries, and a rapidly ageing global population, neck pain continues to pose a challenge in terms of disability burden worldwide. For future planning, it is essential we improve our mechanistic understanding of the different causes and risk factors for neck pain and prioritise the consistent collection of global neck pain data and increase the number of countries with data on neck pain. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and Global Alliance for Musculoskeletal Health. © 2024 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license
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