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Measuring the Health-Related Sustainable Development Goals in 188 Countries: A Baseline Analysis From the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015 Publisher Pubmed



Lim SS1 ; Allen K1 ; Dandona L1, 9 ; Forouzanfar MH1 ; Fullman N1 ; Goldberg EM1 ; Hay SI1 ; Holmberg M1 ; Kutz MJ1 ; Larson HJ1, 15 ; Lopez AD1, 20 ; Mcnellan CR1 ; Mokdad AH1 ; Mooney MD1 Show All Authors
Authors
  1. Lim SS1
  2. Allen K1
  3. Dandona L1, 9
  4. Forouzanfar MH1
  5. Fullman N1
  6. Goldberg EM1
  7. Hay SI1
  8. Holmberg M1
  9. Kutz MJ1
  10. Larson HJ1, 15
  11. Lopez AD1, 20
  12. Mcnellan CR1
  13. Mokdad AH1
  14. Mooney MD1
  15. Naghavi M1
  16. Olsen HE1
  17. Pigott DM1
  18. Vos T1
  19. Wang H1
  20. Achoki T1
  21. Afshin A1, 60
  22. Allen C1
  23. Anderson GM1
  24. Barber R1
  25. Bienhoff KA1
  26. Blore J1
  27. Brauer M1, 171
  28. Carter A1
  29. Casey D1
  30. Charlson FJ1, 36, 205
  31. Chen AZ1
  32. Coates MM1
  33. Coggeshall M1
  34. Cohen AJ1, 215
  35. Deshpande A1
  36. Erskine HE1, 36, 205
  37. Ferrari AJ1, 36, 205
  38. Fitzmaurice C1
  39. Foreman K1
  40. Fraser M1
  41. Friedman J1
  42. Frostad J1
  43. Godwin W1
  44. Graetz N1
  45. Griswold M1
  46. Haagsma JA1, 304
  47. Haakenstad A1, 32
  48. Kassebaum NJ1
  49. Kemmer L1
  50. Kulikoff XR1
  51. Kyu HH1
  52. Leung J1, 36, 205
  53. Lind M1
  54. Liu PY1
  55. Masiye F1, 209
  56. Mirarefin M1
  57. Misganaw A1
  58. Moradilakeh M1, 450
  59. Nguyen G1
  60. Pinho C1
  61. Rao PC1
  62. Reitsma MB1
  63. Roth GA1
  64. Santomauro DF1, 36, 205
  65. Shackelford K1
  66. Silpakit N1
  67. Sligar A1
  68. Sorensen RJD1
  69. Stanaway JD1
  70. Steiner C1
  71. Sur P1
  72. Vollset SE1, 484, 540
  73. Wanga V1
  74. Whiteford HA1, 36, 205
  75. Zhao Y1
  76. Zhou M1, 18
  77. Murray CJL1
  78. Kotsakis GA2
  79. Mock CN3
  80. Anderson BO4
  81. Watkins DA4, 369
  82. Bhutta ZA5, 7
  83. Nisar MI6
  84. Akseer N7, 62
  85. Deveber GA7
  86. Jeemon P8, 340, 341
  87. Dandona R9
  88. Kumar GA9
  89. Gething PW10
  90. Bisanzio D11
  91. Cooper C12, 219, 220
  92. Ali R13
  93. Bennett DA13
  94. Jha V13, 342
  95. Weiss DJ13
  96. Kinfu Y14
  97. Patel V16, 243, 500
  98. Langan SM17
  99. Mckee M17
  100. Murthy GVS17, 242
  101. Roberts B17
  102. Stockl H17
  103. Duan L18
  104. Jin Y18
  105. Li Y18, 407
  106. Liu S18
  107. Wang L18
  108. Ye P18
  109. Liang X19
  110. Azzopardi P21, 24, 127, 128
  111. Cowie BC22, 222
  112. Meretoja A23, 439
  113. Patton GC24
  114. Alam K24, 27, 83
  115. Weintraub RG24, 27, 621
  116. Sawyer SM25
  117. Szoeke CEI26
  118. Taylor HR27
  119. Lozano R28
  120. Barrientosgutierrez T28
  121. Camposnonato IR28, 32
  122. Campuzano JC28
  123. Herediapi IB28
  124. Montanez Hernandez JC28
  125. Rios Blancas MJ28
  126. Servanmori EE28
  127. Shamah Levy T28
  128. Salomon JA29
  129. Binagwaho A30, 163, 165
  130. Barnighausen T32, 134, 135
  131. Cahill LE32, 185
  132. Ding EL32
  133. Farvid MS32, 270
  134. Wagner GR32, 614
  135. Thornelyman AL33, 594
  136. James P31, 34, 79
  137. Fitchett JRA35
  138. Abajobir AA36
  139. Knibbs LD36
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  162. Bayou TA52
  163. Betsu BD52
  164. Gebru AA52, 286
  165. Hailu GB52, 286
  166. Tekle DY52
  167. Yalew AZ52
  168. Adebiyi AO53, 56
  169. Owolabi MO54
  170. Akinyemi RO55, 78
  171. Adedeji IA57
  172. Afanvi KA58, 59
  173. Micha R60
  174. Shi P61
  175. Singh GM61
  176. Badawi A63, 130
  177. Agarwal A64, 65
  178. Agrawal A66, 67
  179. Ahmad Kiadaliri A68, 70, 71
  180. Norrving B69
  181. Ahmadieh H72, 74, 75
  182. Yaseri M72, 260
  183. Jahanmehr N73
  184. Ahmed KY76
  185. Alemu ZA76
  186. Tegegne TK76
  187. Akanda AS77
  188. Akinyemiju TF31, 79
  189. Schwebel DC80
  190. Singh JA80
  191. Alaly Z81
  192. Driscoll TR82
  193. Leigh J83
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  195. Neal B83, 218, 472, 473
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  197. Alasfoor D85
  198. Albuhairan FS86, 87
  199. Alkhateeb MA88
  200. Aldhahri SF89, 91
  201. Altirkawi KA89
  202. Terkawi AS90, 588, 589
  203. Alkerwi A92
  204. Alla F93
  205. Allebeck P94
  206. Rabiee RHS94
  207. Roy N94, 534
  208. Kivipelto M95
  209. Carrero JJ96
  210. Fereshtehnejad SM97
  211. Weiderpass E98, 618, 619, 620
  212. Havmoeller R99
  213. Sindi S99
  214. Alraddadi R100
  215. Alvarez E101
  216. Alvisguzman N102
  217. Paternina Caicedo AJ102, 463
  218. Amare AT103, 105
  219. Ciobanu LG104
  220. Tessema GA104, 591
  221. Amberbir A106
  222. Amegah AK107
  223. Amini H108, 109
  224. Furst T15, 109, 281
  225. Karema CK110, 356
  226. Ammar W111
  227. Harb HL111
  228. Amrock SM112
  229. Andersen HH113
  230. Antonio CAT114
  231. Anwari P115
  232. Arnlov J116, 117
  233. Larsson A116
  234. Artaman A118
  235. Asayesh H119
  236. Asghar RJ120
  237. Atique S121
  238. Avokpaho EFGA122, 123
  239. Awasthi A124
  240. Ayala Quintanilla BP125, 126
  241. Bacha U129
  242. Balakrishnan K131
  243. Barac A132
  244. Barkercollo SL133
  245. Mohammed S135, 447
  246. Barrero LH136
  247. Basu S137
  248. Del LC137
  249. Bazarganhejazi S138, 139, 140
  250. Beardsley J141
  251. Bedi N142
  252. Beghi E143
  253. Bejot Y144
  254. Sheth KN145, 326
  255. Bell ML146
  256. Bello AK147
  257. Santos IS148
  258. Bensenor IM149
  259. Lotufo PA149
  260. Berhane A151, 152
  261. Wolfe CD153, 623
  262. Bernabe E154
  263. Wolfe I154, 624
  264. Bernal OA155
  265. Roba HS156
  266. Beyene AS157
  267. Mesfin YM157
  268. Bhala N158, 159
  269. Bhatt S160
  270. Biadgilign S161
  271. Bikbov B162
  272. Soneji S164
  273. Bjertness E166
  274. Htet AS167, 322
  275. Bourne RRA168
  276. Brainin M169
  277. Krueger H170
  278. Gotay CC171
  279. Kissoon N171
  280. Murthy S171
  281. Pourmalek F171
  282. Brazinova A172, 173
  283. Majdan M172
  284. Shen J174, 550
  285. Breitborde NJK175
  286. Broday DM176
  287. Brugha TS177
  288. Buchbinder R178, 179
  289. Gabbe B180
  290. Thrift AG181
  291. Butt ZA182, 183
  292. Van Donkelaar A184
  293. Martin RV185
  294. Carabin H186
  295. Cardenas R187
  296. Caso V188
  297. Castanedaorjuela CA189, 190
  298. Castillo Rivas J191, 192
  299. Catalalopez F193, 194
  300. Cavalleri F195
  301. Cecilio P196, 197
  302. Das Neves J196, 198
  303. Massano J199, 431
  304. Pedro JM200, 505
  305. Chang H201, 202, 203
  306. Chang J204
  307. Che X206
  308. Chiang PP207
  309. Chibalabala M208
  310. Chisumpa VH209, 210
  311. Mapoma CC209
  312. Choi JJ211
  313. Chowdhury R212
  314. Christensen H213
  315. Cirillo M214
  316. Piel FB216
  317. Rodriguez A217, 530
  318. Cooke GS218
  319. Majeed A218
  320. Cooper LT221
  321. Crump JA223
  322. Derrett S224
  323. Poulton RG225
  324. Damtew SA226, 229
  325. Workie SB226
  326. Deribe K51, 239, 344
  327. Tefera W228
  328. Giref AZ229
  329. Haile D229
  330. Temam Shifa G229, 261
  331. Dargan PI230
  332. Davis AC231
  333. Newton JN231
  334. Steel N231, 573
  335. Davletov K232
  336. De Castro EF233
  337. De Leo D234
  338. Degenhardt L235
  339. Resnikoff S236, 237
  340. Mitchell PB238
  341. Des Jarlais DC240, 241
  342. Dey S242
  343. Dhillon PK244
  344. Lal DK244
  345. Zodpey S244
  346. Dharmaratne SD245
  347. Dorsey ER246
  348. Doyle KE247
  349. Kemp AH248, 363
  350. Dubey M249
  351. Rahman MHU249
  352. Ram U249
  353. Singh A249
  354. Verma RK249
  355. Yadav AK249
  356. Duncan BB250, 251
  357. Kieling C250, 379
  358. Schmidt MI250
  359. Ebrahimi H252, 253
  360. Esteghamati A252
  361. Farzadfar F252
  362. Hafezinejad N252
  363. Kasaeian A252, 256
  364. Parsaeian M217, 252
  365. Pishgar F252, 258
  366. Sheikhbahaei S252
  367. Fahimi S254
  368. Malekzadeh R254
  369. Roshandel G254, 532
  370. Sepanlou SG254
  371. Hassanvand MS255
  372. Khosravi A257, 377
  373. Rahimimovaghar V259
  374. Endries AY261
  375. Ermakov SP262, 263
  376. Soshnikov S263
  377. Eshrati B264, 265
  378. Farid TA266
  379. Khan AR266
  380. Farinha CSES267, 268
  381. Faro A269
  382. Feigin VL271
  383. Felicio MM272
  384. Fernandes JG273, 274
  385. Fischer F275
  386. Foigt N276
  387. Shiue I277, 558
  388. Fowkes FGR278
  389. Franca EB279
  390. Franklin RC280
  391. Garciabasteiro AL282, 283
  392. Gebre T284
  393. Gessner BD287
  394. Gillum RF288
  395. Mehari A288
  396. Ginawi IA289
  397. Giroud M290
  398. Gishu MD291, 292
  399. Tura AK291, 315
  400. Gona P293
  401. Goodridge A294
  402. Gopalani SV295
  403. Goto A296
  404. Inoue M297, 327, 328
  405. Greenwell KF298
  406. Gupta R299
  407. Gupta R299
  408. Gupta V301
  409. Gutierrez RA302
  410. Gyawali B303
  411. Iburg KM303
  412. Halasa YA305
  413. Undurraga EA305
  414. Hamadeh RR306
  415. Hamidi S307
  416. Hammami M308
  417. Hankey GJ309, 310, 311
  418. Haro JM312, 313
  419. Hoek HW314, 316
  420. Skirbekk V317, 541
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  424. Hoy DG321
  425. Hu G323
  426. Huang H324
  427. Idrisov BT325
  428. Kwan GF145, 326
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  430. Shibuya K330
  431. Islami F331
  432. Jacobs TA332
  433. Jacobsen KH333
  434. Jakovljevic MB334
  435. Jansen HAF335
  436. Javanbakht M336
  437. Jayatilleke AU337, 338
  438. Jee SH339
  439. Jiang Y343
  440. Jibat T345, 346
  441. Jonas JB347
  442. Kabir Z348
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  444. Kamal R350
  445. Kesavachandran CN350
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  447. Kan H352
  448. Kandel A353
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  452. Kaul A359
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  454. Keiyoro PN361, 362
  455. Matzopoulos R364, 367
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  457. Kengne AP366, 369
  458. Wiysonge CS366, 465
  459. Stein DJ368, 574
  460. Mayosi BM369
  461. Shey M369
  462. Keren A370
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  479. Koyanagi A389
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  482. Kuate Defo B391, 392
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  484. Kuipers EJ395
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  515. Memiah P434
  516. Memish ZA435, 436
  517. Mendoza W437
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  519. Meretoja TJ440, 441
  520. Mhimbira FA442
  521. Miller TR443, 444
  522. Mills EJ445
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Source: The Lancet Published:2016


Abstract

Background In September, 2015, the UN General Assembly established the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The SDGs specify 17 universal goals, 169 targets, and 230 indicators leading up to 2030. We provide an analysis of 33 health-related SDG indicators based on the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 (GBD 2015). Methods We applied statistical methods to systematically compiled data to estimate the performance of 33 health-related SDG indicators for 188 countries from 1990 to 2015. We rescaled each indicator on a scale from 0 (worst observed value between 1990 and 2015) to 100 (best observed). Indices representing all 33 health-related SDG indicators (health-related SDG index), health-related SDG indicators included in the Millennium Development Goals (MDG index), and health-related indicators not included in the MDGs (non-MDG index) were computed as the geometric mean of the rescaled indicators by SDG target. We used spline regressions to examine the relations between the Socio-demographic Index (SDI, a summary measure based on average income per person, educational attainment, and total fertility rate) and each of the health-related SDG indicators and indices. Findings In 2015, the median health-related SDG index was 59·3 (95% uncertainty interval 56·8–61·8) and varied widely by country, ranging from 85·5 (84·2–86·5) in Iceland to 20·4 (15·4–24·9) in Central African Republic. SDI was a good predictor of the health-related SDG index (r2=0·88) and the MDG index (r2=0·92), whereas the non-MDG index had a weaker relation with SDI (r2=0·79). Between 2000 and 2015, the health-related SDG index improved by a median of 7·9 (IQR 5·0–10·4), and gains on the MDG index (a median change of 10·0 [6·7–13·1]) exceeded that of the non-MDG index (a median change of 5·5 [2·1–8·9]). Since 2000, pronounced progress occurred for indicators such as met need with modern contraception, under-5 mortality, and neonatal mortality, as well as the indicator for universal health coverage tracer interventions. Moderate improvements were found for indicators such as HIV and tuberculosis incidence, minimal changes for hepatitis B incidence took place, and childhood overweight considerably worsened. Interpretation GBD provides an independent, comparable avenue for monitoring progress towards the health-related SDGs. Our analysis not only highlights the importance of income, education, and fertility as drivers of health improvement but also emphasises that investments in these areas alone will not be sufficient. Although considerable progress on the health-related MDG indicators has been made, these gains will need to be sustained and, in many cases, accelerated to achieve the ambitious SDG targets. The minimal improvement in or worsening of health-related indicators beyond the MDGs highlight the need for additional resources to effectively address the expanded scope of the health-related SDGs. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2016 The Authors(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY license
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