Tehran University of Medical Sciences

Science Communicator Platform

Stay connected! Follow us on X network (Twitter):
Share this content! On (X network) By
The Global Burden of Tuberculosis: Results From the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015 Publisher Pubmed



Kyu HH1 ; Maddison ER1 ; Henry NJ1 ; Mumford JE1 ; Barber R1 ; Shields C1 ; Brown JC1 ; Nguyen G1 ; Carter A1 ; Wolock TM1 ; Wang H1 ; Liu PY1 ; Reitsma M1 ; Ross JM1 Show All Authors
Authors
  1. Kyu HH1
  2. Maddison ER1
  3. Henry NJ1
  4. Mumford JE1
  5. Barber R1
  6. Shields C1
  7. Brown JC1
  8. Nguyen G1
  9. Carter A1
  10. Wolock TM1
  11. Wang H1
  12. Liu PY1
  13. Reitsma M1
  14. Ross JM1
  15. Abajobir AA3
  16. Abate KH4
  17. Abbas K5
  18. Abera M4
  19. Abera SF6
  20. Hareri HA7
  21. Ahmed M8
  22. Alene KA9
  23. Alvisguzman N10
  24. Amoadjei J11
  25. Andrews J12
  26. Ansari H13
  27. Antonio CA14
  28. Anwari P15
  29. Asayesh H16
  30. Atey TM17
  31. Atre S18
  32. Barac A19
  33. Beardsley J20
  34. Bedi N21
  35. Bensenor I22
  36. Beyene AS23
  37. Butt ZA24
  38. Cardona PJ25
  39. Christopher DJ26
  40. Dandona L1, 27
  41. Dandona R1, 27
  42. Deribe K28
  43. Deribew A29
  44. Ehrenkranz R1
  45. El Sayed Zaki M30
  46. Endries A31
  47. Feyissa TR32
  48. Fischer F33
  49. Gai R34
  50. Garciabasteiro AL35
  51. Gebrehiwot TT4
  52. Gesesew H4
  53. Getahun B36
  54. Gona P37
  55. Goodridge A38
  56. Gugnani H39
  57. Haghparastbidgoli H40
  58. Hailu GB41, 61
  59. Hassen HY42
  60. Hilawe E43
  61. Horita N44
  62. Jacobsen KH45
  63. Jonas JB46
  64. Kasaeian A47
  65. Sano Kedir M42
  66. Kemmer L1
  67. Khader Y48
  68. Khan E49
  69. Khang YH50
  70. Khoja AT51
  71. Kim YJ52
  72. Koul P53
  73. Koyanagi A54
  74. Krohn KJ1
  75. Anil Kumar G27
  76. Kutz M1
  77. Lodha R55
  78. Magdy Abd El Razek H56
  79. Majdzadeh R57
  80. Manyazewal T58
  81. Memish Z59
  82. Mendoza W60
  83. Mezgebe HB41, 61
  84. Mohammed S62
  85. Ogbo FA63
  86. Oh IH64
  87. Oren E65
  88. Osgoodzimmerman A1
  89. Pereira D66
  90. Plass D67
  91. Pourmalek F68
  92. Qorbani M69
  93. Rafay A70
  94. Rahman M71
  95. Rai RK72
  96. Rao PC1
  97. Ray SE1
  98. Reiner R1
  99. Reinig N1
  100. Safiri S73
  101. Salomon JA12
  102. Sandar L1
  103. Sartorius B74
  104. Shamsizadeh M75
  105. Shey M76
  106. Markos Shifti D77
  107. Shore H78
  108. Singh J79
  109. Sreeramareddy CT80
  110. Swaminathan S81
  111. Swartz SJ1
  112. Tadese F82
  113. Tedla BA83
  114. Tegegne BS84
  115. Tessema B85
  116. Topormadry R86
  117. Ukwaja KN87
  118. Uthman OA88
  119. Vlassov V89
  120. Vollset SE1, 90
  121. Wakayo T4
  122. Weldegebreal S91
  123. Westerman R92
  124. Workicho A4
  125. Yonemoto N93
  126. Yoon SJ94
  127. Yotebieng M95
  128. Naghavi M1
  129. Hay SI1, 2
  130. Vos T1
  131. Murray CJL1
Show Affiliations
Authors Affiliations
  1. 1. Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, United States
  2. 2. Big Data Institute, Li Ka Shing Centre for Health Information and Discovery, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
  3. 3. School of Public Health, University of Queensland, Brisbane, QLD, Australia
  4. 4. Jimma University, Jimma, Ethiopia
  5. 5. Virginia Tech, Blacksburg, VA, United States
  6. 6. School of Public Health, College of Health Sciences, Mekelle University, Mekelle, Ethiopia
  7. 7. Department of Nursing and Midwifery, School of Allied Sciences, Addis Ababa University, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
  8. 8. Epidemiology Department, Jimma University Institute of Health, Jimma, Ethiopia
  9. 9. University of Gondar, Gondar, Ethiopia
  10. 10. Universidad de Cartagena, Cartagena, Colombia
  11. 11. University of Cape Coast, Cape Coast, Ghana
  12. 12. Stanford University, Stanford, CA, United States
  13. 13. Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Health Promotion Research Center, Zahedan University of Medical Sciences, Zahedan, Iran
  14. 14. Department of Health Policy and Administration, College of Public Health, University of the Philippines Manila, Manila, Philippines
  15. 15. Independent Consultant, Kabul, Afghanistan
  16. 16. Qom University of Medical Sciences, Qom, Iran
  17. 17. School of Pharmacy, Mekelle University, Mekelle, Ethiopia
  18. 18. Centre for Clinical Global Health Education, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, United States
  19. 19. Faculty of Medicine, University of Belgrade, Belgrade, Serbia
  20. 20. Oxford University Clinical Research Unit, Ho Chi Minh City, Viet Nam
  21. 21. Gandhi Medical College, Jazan University, Jizan, Saudi Arabia
  22. 22. Hospital Universitario da Universidade de Sao Paulo, Sao Paulo, Brazil
  23. 23. School of Public Health and Medicine, University of Newcastle, Newcastle, NSW, Australia
  24. 24. Al Shifa Trust Eye Hospital, Rawalpindi, Pakistan
  25. 25. Institut Germans Trias i Pujol, Badalona, Spain
  26. 26. Christian Medical College, Vellore, India
  27. 27. Public Health Foundation of India, Gurugram, India
  28. 28. Wellcome Trust Brighton and Sussex Centre for Global Health Research, Brighton and Sussex Medical School, Falmer, Brighton, United Kingdom
  29. 29. Nutrition International, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
  30. 30. Mansoura University, Mansoura, Egypt
  31. 31. Arba Minch University, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
  32. 32. Wollega University, Nekemte, Ethiopia
  33. 33. Bielefeld University, Bielefeld, Germany
  34. 34. National Center for Child Health and Development, Tokyo, Japan
  35. 35. Centro de Investigacao em Saude de Manhica, Manhica, Maputo, Mozambique
  36. 36. School of Public Health, College of Health Sciences, Addis Ababa University, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
  37. 37. University of Massachusetts Boston, Boston, MA, United States
  38. 38. El Instituto de Investigaciones Cientificas y Servicios de Alta Tecnologia de Panama, City of Knowledge, Panama
  39. 39. Saint James School of Medicine, The Valley, Anguilla
  40. 40. Institute for Global Health, University College London, London, United Kingdom
  41. 41. College of Health Sciences, Mekelle University, Mekelle, Ethiopia
  42. 42. Mizan Tepi University, Mizan Teferi, Ethiopia
  43. 43. Tigray Health Research Institute, Mekelle, Ethiopia
  44. 44. Yokohama City University, Yokohama, Japan
  45. 45. George Mason University, Fairfax, VA, United States
  46. 46. Department of Ophthalmology, Medical Faculty Mannheim, University Heidelberg, Mannheim, Germany
  47. 47. Hematology-Oncology and Stem Cell Transplantation Research Center, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
  48. 48. Jordan University of Science and Technology, Irbid, Jordan
  49. 49. Health Services Academy, Islamabad, Pakistan
  50. 50. Department of Health Policy and Management, Seoul National University College of Medicine, Seoul, South Korea
  51. 51. Al Imam Muhammad Ibn Saud Islamic University, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
  52. 52. Xiamen University Malaysia Campus, Selangor, Malaysia
  53. 53. Sher-i-Kashmir Institute of Medical Sciences, Srinagar, India
  54. 54. Parc Sanitari Sant Joan de Deu, Barcelona, Spain
  55. 55. All India Institute of Medical Sciences, New Delhi, India
  56. 56. Mansoura Faculty of Medicine, Mansoura, Egypt
  57. 57. Knowledge Utilization Research Center and Community Based Participatory Research Center, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
  58. 58. Ethiopian Public Health Association, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
  59. 59. Ministry of Health, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, and College of Medicine, Alfaisal University, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
  60. 60. United Nations Population Fund, Lima, Peru
  61. 61. College of Health Sciences, Mekelle University, Mekelle, Ethiopia
  62. 62. Health Systems and Policy Research Unit, Ahmadu Bello University, Zaria, Nigeria
  63. 63. Translational Health Research Institute, Western Sydney University, Sydney, NSW, Australia
  64. 64. Kyung Hee University, Seoul, South Korea
  65. 65. San Diego State University, San Diego, CA, United States
  66. 66. Rede de Quimica e Tecnologia/Laboratorio Associado para a Quimica Verde, Laboratorio de Farmacognosia, Departamento de Quimica, Faculdade de Farmacia, Universidade do Porto, Porto, Portugal
  67. 67. German Environment Agency, Berlin, Germany
  68. 68. University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada
  69. 69. Non-Communicable Diseases Research Center, Alborz University of Medical Sciences, Karaj, Iran
  70. 70. Contech School of Public Health, Lahore, Pakistan
  71. 71. Research and Evaluation Division, Building Resources Across Communities, Dhaka, Bangladesh
  72. 72. Society for Health and Demographic Surveillance, Suri, India
  73. 73. Managerial Epidemiology Research Center, Department of Public Health, School of Nursing and Midwifery, Maragheh University of Medical Sciences, Maragheh, Iran
  74. 74. Public Health Medicine, School of Nursing and Public Health, University of KwaZulu-Natal, Durban, South Africa
  75. 75. School of Nursing and Midwifery, Hamadan University of Medical Sciences, Hamadan, Iran
  76. 76. University of Cape Town, Cape Town, South Africa
  77. 77. St Paul Hospital Millennium Medical College, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
  78. 78. Haramaya University, Harar, Ethiopia
  79. 79. University of Alabama at Birmingham, Birmingham, AL, United States
  80. 80. Community Medicine, International Medical University, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia
  81. 81. Indian Council of Medical Research, New Delhi, India
  82. 82. Wollo University, Dessie, Ethiopia
  83. 83. James Cook University, Cairns, QLD, Australia
  84. 84. University Medical Center Groningen, University of Groningen, Groningen, Netherlands
  85. 85. Department of Medical Microbiology, College of Medicine and Health Sciences, University of Gondar, Gondar, Ethiopia
  86. 86. Institute of Public Health, Faculty of Health Sciences, Jagiellonian University, Krakow, Poland
  87. 87. Department of Medicine, Federal Teaching Hospital, Abakaliki, Nigeria
  88. 88. Warwick Medical School, Coventry, United Kingdom
  89. 89. National Research University Higher School of Economics, Moscow, Russian Federation
  90. 90. Centre for Disease Burden, Norwegian Institute of Public Health, Bergen, Norway
  91. 91. Mekelle University, Mekelle, Ethiopia
  92. 92. Bundesinstitut fur Bevolkerungsforschung, Wiesbaden, Germany
  93. 93. Department of Biostatistics, Kyoto University School of Public Health, Kyoto, Japan
  94. 94. Korea University, Seoul, South Korea
  95. 95. Ohio State University, Columbus, OH, United States

Source: The Lancet Infectious Diseases Published:2018


Abstract

Background: An understanding of the trends in tuberculosis incidence, prevalence, and mortality is crucial to tracking of the success of tuberculosis control programmes and identification of remaining challenges. We assessed trends in the fatal and non-fatal burden of tuberculosis over the past 25 years for 195 countries and territories. Methods: We analysed 10 691 site-years of vital registration data, 768 site-years of verbal autopsy data, and 361 site-years of mortality surveillance data using the Cause of Death Ensemble model to estimate tuberculosis mortality rates. We analysed all available age-specific and sex-specific data sources, including annual case notifications, prevalence surveys, and estimated cause-specific mortality, to generate internally consistent estimates of incidence, prevalence, and mortality using DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool. We assessed how observed tuberculosis incidence, prevalence, and mortality differed from expected trends as predicted by the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite indicator based on income per capita, average years of schooling, and total fertility rate. We also estimated tuberculosis mortality and disability-adjusted life-years attributable to the independent effects of risk factors including smoking, alcohol use, and diabetes. Findings: Globally, in 2015, the number of tuberculosis incident cases (including new and relapse cases) was 10·2 million (95% uncertainty interval 9·2 million to 11·5 million), the number of prevalent cases was 10·1 million (9·2 million to 11·1 million), and the number of deaths was 1·3 million (1·1 million to 1·6 million). Among individuals who were HIV negative, the number of incident cases was 8·8 million (8·0 million to 9·9 million), the number of prevalent cases was 8·9 million (8·1 million to 9·7 million), and the number of deaths was 1·1 million (0·9 million to 1·4 million). Annualised rates of change from 2005 to 2015 showed a faster decline in mortality (−4·1% [−5·0 to −3·4]) than in incidence (−1·6% [−1·9 to −1·2]) and prevalence (−0·7% [−1·0 to −0·5]) among HIV-negative individuals. The SDI was inversely associated with HIV-negative mortality rates but did not show a clear gradient for incidence and prevalence. Most of Asia, eastern Europe, and sub-Saharan Africa had higher rates of HIV-negative tuberculosis burden than expected given their SDI. Alcohol use accounted for 11·4% (9·3–13·0) of global tuberculosis deaths among HIV-negative individuals in 2015, diabetes accounted for 10·6% (6·8–14·8), and smoking accounted for 7·8% (3·8–12·0). Interpretation: Despite a concerted global effort to reduce the burden of tuberculosis, it still causes a large disease burden globally. Strengthening of health systems for early detection of tuberculosis and improvement of the quality of tuberculosis care, including prompt and accurate diagnosis, early initiation of treatment, and regular follow-up, are priorities. Countries with higher than expected tuberculosis rates for their level of sociodemographic development should investigate the reasons for lagging behind and take remedial action. Efforts to prevent smoking, alcohol use, and diabetes could also substantially reduce the burden of tuberculosis. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY-NC-ND 4.0 license
Experts (# of related papers)
Other Related Docs
21. Tuberculosis and Diabetes Mellitus in Northwest of Iran, Infectious Disorders - Drug Targets (2020)
37. Obesity Researches in Youth: A Scientometrics Study in Middle East Countries, Journal of Research in Medical Sciences (2021)
47. Trend Analysis of Noncommunicable Diseases and Their Risk Factors in Afghanistan, Chronic Diseases and Translational Medicine (2023)