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Global, Regional, and National Deaths, Prevalence, Disability-Adjusted Life Years, and Years Lived With Disability for Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease and Asthma, 1990–2015: A Systematic Analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015 Publisher Pubmed



Soriano JB1, 2 ; Abajobir AA3 ; Abate KH5 ; Abera SF6, 9 ; Agrawal A10, 11 ; Ahmed MB4 ; Aichour AN12 ; Aichour I13 ; Eddine Aichour MT14 ; Alam K15, 16 ; Alam N17 ; Alkaabi JM18 ; Almaskari F18 ; Alvisguzman N19 Show All Authors
Authors
  1. Soriano JB1, 2
  2. Abajobir AA3
  3. Abate KH5
  4. Abera SF6, 9
  5. Agrawal A10, 11
  6. Ahmed MB4
  7. Aichour AN12
  8. Aichour I13
  9. Eddine Aichour MT14
  10. Alam K15, 16
  11. Alam N17
  12. Alkaabi JM18
  13. Almaskari F18
  14. Alvisguzman N19
  15. Amberbir A20
  16. Amoako YA21
  17. Ansha MG22
  18. Anto JM23
  19. Asayesh H24
  20. Atey TM8
  21. Avokpaho EFGA25, 26
  22. Barac A27
  23. Basu S28
  24. Bedi N29
  25. Bensenor IM30
  26. Berhane A31
  27. Beyene AS32
  28. Bhutta ZA34, 35
  29. Biryukov S36
  30. Boneya DJ38
  31. Brauer M36, 40
  32. Carpenter DO41
  33. Casey D36
  34. Christopher DJ42
  35. Dandona L36, 43
  36. Dandona R36, 43
  37. Dharmaratne SD44
  38. Do HP45
  39. Fischer F46
  40. Gebrehiwot TT5
  41. Geleto A33, 47
  42. Ghoshal AG48
  43. Gillum RF50
  44. Mohamed Ginawi IA51
  45. Gupta V52
  46. Hay SI36, 53
  47. Hedayati MT54
  48. Horita N55
  49. Hosgood HD56
  50. Jakovljevic MMB37, 57
  51. James SL58
  52. Jonas JB59
  53. Kasaeian A60, 61
  54. Khader YS62
  55. Khalil IA36
  56. Khan EA63
  57. Khang YH64, 65
  58. Khubchandani J66
  59. Knibbs LD3
  60. Kosen S67
  61. Koul PA68
  62. Kumar GA43
  63. Leshargie CT39
  64. Liang X69
  65. Magdy Abd El Razek H70
  66. Majeed A71
  67. Malta DC73
  68. Manhertz T36
  69. Marquez N36
  70. Mehari A49
  71. Mensah GA74
  72. Miller TR75, 76
  73. Mohammad KA77, 78
  74. Mohammed KE7
  75. Mohammed S79, 80
  76. Mokdad AH36
  77. Naghavi M36
  78. Nguyen CT45
  79. Nguyen G36
  80. Nguyen QL45
  81. Nguyen TH45
  82. Ningrum DNA81, 82
  83. Nong VM45
  84. Obi JI83
  85. Odeyemi YE83
  86. Ogbo FA84
  87. Oren E85
  88. Mahesh PA86
  89. Park EK87
  90. Patton GC88
  91. Paulson K36
  92. Qorbani M89
  93. Quansah R90, 91
  94. Rafay A92, 93
  95. Rahman MHU94
  96. Rai RK95
  97. Rawaf S72
  98. Reinig N36
  99. Safiri S96
  100. Sarmientosuarez R97
  101. Sartorius B98, 99
  102. Savic M101
  103. Sawhney M102
  104. Shigematsu M103, 104
  105. Smith M36
  106. Tadese F105
  107. Thurston GD106
  108. Topormadry R107, 108
  109. Tran BX109, 110
  110. Ukwaja KN111
  111. Van Boven JFM112
  112. Vlassov VV113
  113. Vollset SE36, 100, 114
  114. Wan X36, 115
  115. Werdecker A116
  116. Hanson SW36
  117. Yano Y117
  118. Yimam HH118
  119. Yonemoto N119
  120. Yu C120, 121
  121. Zaidi Z122
  122. Sayed Zaki ME123
  123. Lopez AD124
  124. Murray CJL36
  125. Vos T36
Show Affiliations
Authors Affiliations
  1. 1. Instituto de Investigacion Hospital Universitario de la Princesa (IISP), Madrid, Spain
  2. 2. Universidad Autonoma de Madrid, Madrid, Spain
  3. 3. School of Public Health, University of Queensland, Brisbane, QLD, Australia
  4. 4. Department of Epidemiology, College of Health Sciences, Jimma University, Jimma, Ethiopia
  5. 5. Jimma University, Jimma, Ethiopia
  6. 6. School of Public Health, College of Health Sciences, Mekelle University, Mekelle, Ethiopia
  7. 7. College of Health Sciences, Mekelle University, Mekelle, Ethiopia
  8. 8. Mekelle University, Mekelle, Ethiopia
  9. 9. Food Security and Institute for Biological Chemistry and Nutrition, University of Hohenheim, Stuttgart, Germany
  10. 10. CSIR—Institute of Genomics and Integrative Biology, Delhi, India
  11. 11. Department of Internal Medicine, Baylor College of Medicine, Houston, TX, United States
  12. 12. University Ferhat Abbas of Setif, Setif, Algeria
  13. 13. National Institute of Nursing Education, Setif, Algeria
  14. 14. High National School of Veterinary Medicine, Algiers, Algeria
  15. 15. Murdoch Childrens Research Institute, The University of Melbourne, Parkville, VIC, Australia
  16. 16. The University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW, Australia
  17. 17. Department of Health, Queensland, Brisbane, QLD, Australia
  18. 18. College of Medicine and Health Sciences, United Arab Emirates University, Al Ain, United Arab Emirates
  19. 19. Universidad de Cartagena, Cartagena de Indias, Colombia
  20. 20. Dignitas International, Zomba, Malawi
  21. 21. Department of Medicine, Komfo Anokye Teaching Hospital, Kumasi, Ghana
  22. 22. West Hararghe Zonal Health Department, Chiro, Ethiopia
  23. 23. ISGlobal, Barcelona Institute for Global Health, Barcelona, Spain
  24. 24. Department of Medical Emergency, School of Paramedic, Qom University of Medical Sciences, Qom, Iran
  25. 25. Institut de Recherche Clinique du Benin (IRCB), Cotonou, Benin
  26. 26. Laboratoire d’Etudes et de Recherche-Action en Sante (LERAS Afrique), Parakou, Benin
  27. 27. Faculty of Medicine, University of Belgrade, Belgrade, Serbia
  28. 28. Stanford University, Stanford, CA, United States
  29. 29. College of Public Health and Tropical Medicine, Jazan, Saudi Arabia
  30. 30. University of Sao Paulo, Sao Paulo, Brazil
  31. 31. College of Health Sciences, Debre Berhan University, Debre Berhan, Ethiopia
  32. 32. College of Health and Medical Sciences, Haramaya University, Harar, Ethiopia
  33. 33. Haramaya University, Harar, Ethiopia
  34. 34. Centre of Excellence in Women and Child Health, Aga Khan University, Karachi, Pakistan
  35. 35. Centre for Global Child Health, The Hospital for Sick Children, Toronto, ON, Canada
  36. 36. Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, United States
  37. 37. Center for Health Trends and Forecasts, Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, United States
  38. 38. Department of Public Health, Debre Markos University, Debre Markos, Ethiopia
  39. 39. Debre Markos University, Debre Markos, Ethiopia
  40. 40. University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada
  41. 41. University at Albany, Rensselaer, NY, United States
  42. 42. Christian Medical College, Vellore, India
  43. 43. Public Health Foundation of India, Gurugram, India
  44. 44. Department of Community Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, University of Peradeniya, Peradeniya, Sri Lanka
  45. 45. Institute for Global Health Innovations, Duy Tan University, Da Nang, Viet Nam
  46. 46. School of Public Health, Bielefeld University, Bielefeld, Germany
  47. 47. University of Newcastle, Newcastle, NSW, Australia
  48. 48. National Allergy Asthma Bronchitis Institute, Kolkata, India
  49. 49. College of Medicine, Howard University, Washington, DC, United States
  50. 50. Howard University, Washington, DC, United States
  51. 51. College of Medicine, University of Hail, Hail, Saudi Arabia
  52. 52. Department of Anthropology, University of Delhi, Delhi, India
  53. 53. Oxford Big Data Institute, Li Ka Shing, Centre for Health Information and Discovery, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
  54. 54. Department of Medical Mycology and Parasitology, School of Medicine, Mazandaran University of Medical Sciences, Sari, Iran
  55. 55. Department of Pulmonology, Yokohama City University Graduate School of Medicine, Yokohama, Japan
  56. 56. Albert Einstein College of Medicine, Bronx, NY, United States
  57. 57. Faculty of Medical Sciences, University of Kragujevac, Kragujevac, Serbia
  58. 58. Denver Health/University of Colorado, Denver, CO, United States
  59. 59. Department of Ophthalmology, Medical Faculty Mannheim, Ruprecht-Karls-University Heidelberg, Mannheim, Germany
  60. 60. Endocrinology and Metabolism Population Sciences Institute, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
  61. 61. Hematology-Oncology and Stem Cell Transplantation Research Center, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
  62. 62. Department of Community Medicine, Public Health and Family Medicine, Jordan University of Science and Technology, Irbid, Jordan
  63. 63. Health Services Academy, Islamabad, Pakistan
  64. 64. Department of Health Policy and Management, Seoul National University College of Medicine, Seoul, South Korea
  65. 65. Institute of Health Policy and Management, Seoul National University Medical Center, Seoul, South Korea
  66. 66. Department of Nutrition and Health Science, Ball State University, Muncie, IN, United States
  67. 67. Center for Community Empowerment, Health Policy and Humanities, National Institute of Health Research & Development, Jakarta, Indonesia
  68. 68. Sher-i-Kashmir Institute of Medical Sciences, Srinagar, India
  69. 69. Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China
  70. 70. Mansoura Faculty of Medicine, Mansoura, Egypt
  71. 71. Department of Primary Care & Public Health, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom
  72. 72. Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom
  73. 73. Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais, Belo Horizonte, Brazil
  74. 74. Center for Translation Research and Implementation Science, National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, United States
  75. 75. Pacific Institute for Research & Evaluation, Calverton, MD, United States
  76. 76. Centre for Population Health, Curtin University, Perth, WA, Australia
  77. 77. University of Salahaddin, Erbil, Iraq
  78. 78. ISHIK University, Erbil, Iraq
  79. 79. Health Systems and Policy Research Unit, Ahmadu Bello University, Zaria, Nigeria
  80. 80. Institute of Public Health, Heidelberg University, Heidelberg, Germany
  81. 81. Department of Public Health, Semarang State University, Semarang City, Indonesia
  82. 82. Graduate Institute of Biomedical Informatics, College of Medical Science and Technology, Taipei Medical University, Taipei City, Taiwan
  83. 83. Pulmonary Medicine, Howard University Hospital, Washington, DC, United States
  84. 84. Centre for Health Research, Western Sydney University, Sydney, NSW, Australia
  85. 85. University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ, United States
  86. 86. JSS Medical College, JSS University, Mysore, India
  87. 87. Department of Medical Humanities and Social Medicine, College of Medicine, Kosin University, Busan, South Korea
  88. 88. Murdoch Childrens Research Institute, Department of Paediatrics, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, VIC, Australia
  89. 89. Non-Communicable Diseases Research Center, Alborz University of Medical Sciences, Karaj, Iran
  90. 90. University of Ghana, Accra, Ghana
  91. 91. Noguchi Memorial Institute of Medical Research, Accra, Ghana
  92. 92. Contech International Health Consultants, Lahore, Pakistan
  93. 93. Contech School of Public Health, Lahore, Pakistan
  94. 94. International Institute for Population Sciences, Mumbai, India
  95. 95. Society for Health and Demographic Surveillance, Suri, India
  96. 96. Managerial Epidemiology Research Center, Department of Public Health, School of Nursing and Midwifery, Maragheh University of Medical Sciences, Maragheh, Iran
  97. 97. Universidad Ciencias Aplicadas y Ambientales, Bogota, DC, Colombia
  98. 98. Public Health Medicine, School of Nursing and Public Health, University of KwaZulu-Natal, Durban, South Africa
  99. 99. UKZN Gastrointestinal Cancer Research Centre, South African Medical Research Council, Durban, South Africa
  100. 100. Center for Disease Burden, Norwegian Institute of Public Health, Oslo, Norway
  101. 101. Norwegian Institute of Public Health, Oslo, Norway
  102. 102. Department of Public Health, Marshall University, Huntington, WV, United States
  103. 103. National Institute of Infectious Diseases, Tokyo, Japan
  104. 104. Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, NM, United States
  105. 105. Department of Public Health, Wollo University, Dessie, Ethiopia
  106. 106. Nelson Institute of Environmental Medicine, School of Medicine, New York University, Tuxedo, NY, United States
  107. 107. Institute of Public Health, Faculty of Health Sciences, Jagiellonian University Medical College, Krakow, Poland
  108. 108. Faculty of Health Sciences, Wroclaw Medical University, Wroclaw, Poland
  109. 109. Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, United States
  110. 110. Hanoi Medical University, Hanoi, Viet Nam
  111. 111. Department of Internal Medicine, Federal Teaching Hospital, Abakaliki, Nigeria
  112. 112. University of Groningen, Groningen, Netherlands
  113. 113. National Research University Higher School of Economics, Moscow, Russian Federation
  114. 114. Department of Global Public Health and Primary Care, University of Bergen, Bergen, Norway
  115. 115. Institute of Basic Medical Sciences, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences, Beijing, China
  116. 116. Competence Center Mortality-Follow-Up of the German National Cohort, Federal Institute for Population Research, Wiesbaden, Germany
  117. 117. Department of Preventive Medicine, Northwestern University, Chicago, IL, United States
  118. 118. Mizan Tepi University, Mizan Teferi, Ethiopia
  119. 119. Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Kyoto University, Kyoto, Japan
  120. 120. Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Wuhan University, Wuhan, China
  121. 121. Global Health Institute, Wuhan University, Wuhan, China
  122. 122. University Hospital of Setif, Setif, Algeria
  123. 123. Faculty of Medicine, Mansoura University, Mansoura, Egypt
  124. 124. Melbourne School of Population and Global Health, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, VIC, Australia

Source: The Lancet Respiratory Medicine Published:2017


Abstract

Background Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and asthma are common diseases with a heterogeneous distribution worldwide. Here, we present methods and disease and risk estimates for COPD and asthma from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors (GBD) 2015 study. The GBD study provides annual updates on estimates of deaths, prevalence, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), a summary measure of fatal and non-fatal disease outcomes, for over 300 diseases and injuries, for 188 countries from 1990 to the most recent year. Methods We estimated numbers of deaths due to COPD and asthma using the GBD Cause of Death Ensemble modelling (CODEm) tool. First, we analysed data from vital registration and verbal autopsy for the aggregate category of all chronic respiratory diseases. Subsequently, models were run for asthma and COPD relying on covariates to predict rates in countries that have incomplete or no vital registration data. Disease estimates for COPD and asthma were based on systematic reviews of published papers, unpublished reports, surveys, and health service encounter data from the USA. We used the Global Initiative of Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease spirometry-based definition as the reference for COPD and a reported diagnosis of asthma with current wheeze as the definition of asthma. We used a Bayesian meta-regression tool, DisMod-MR 2.1, to derive estimates of prevalence and incidence. We estimated population-attributable fractions for risk factors for COPD and asthma from exposure data, relative risks, and a theoretical minimum exposure level. Results were stratified by Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite measure of income per capita, mean years of education over the age of 15 years, and total fertility rate. Findings In 2015, 3·2 million people (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 3·1 million to 3·3 million) died from COPD worldwide, an increase of 11·6% (95% UI 5·3 to 19·8) compared with 1990. There was a decrease in age-standardised death rate of 41·9% (37·7 to 45·1) but this was counteracted by population growth and ageing of the global population. From 1990 to 2015, the prevalence of COPD increased by 44·2% (41·7 to 46·6), whereas age-standardised prevalence decreased by 14·7% (13·5 to 15·9). In 2015, 0·40 million people (0·36 million to 0·44 million) died from asthma, a decrease of 26·7% (−7·2 to 43·7) from 1990, and the age-standardised death rate decreased by 58·8% (39·0 to 69·0). The prevalence of asthma increased by 12·6% (9·0 to 16·4), whereas the age-standardised prevalence decreased by 17·7% (15·1 to 19·9). Age-standardised DALY rates due to COPD increased until the middle range of the SDI before reducing sharply. Age-standardised DALY rates due to asthma in both sexes decreased monotonically with rising SDI. The relation between with SDI and DALY rates due to asthma was attributed to variation in years of life lost (YLLs), whereas DALY rates due to COPD varied similarly for YLLs and years lived with disability across the SDI continuum. Smoking and ambient particulate matter were the main risk factors for COPD followed by household air pollution, occupational particulates, ozone, and secondhand smoke. Together, these risks explained 73·3% (95% UI 65·8 to 80·1) of DALYs due to COPD. Smoking and occupational asthmagens were the only risks quantified for asthma in GBD, accounting for 16·5% (14·6 to 18·7) of DALYs due to asthma. Interpretation Asthma was the most prevalent chronic respiratory disease worldwide in 2015, with twice the number of cases of COPD. Deaths from COPD were eight times more common than deaths from asthma. In 2015, COPD caused 2·6% of global DALYs and asthma 1·1% of global DALYs. Although there are laudable international collaborative efforts to make surveys of asthma and COPD more comparable, no consensus exists on case definitions and how to measure disease severity for population health measurements like GBD. Comparisons between countries and over time are important, as much of the chronic respiratory burden is either preventable or treatable with affordable interventions. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2017 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license
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